Question: if COVID 19 evolves into something no more than a nuisance

[RFCalifornia]

Do we need to still lock down?

Hear me out -- a successful virus does not kill its host

Thus, viruses evolve until they find a way to be undetected, and keep the host alive without symptoms

So, if COVID 19 takes this route, could this be no more than an addition to flu shots in future years?

Don't get me wrong -- Omicron is real and we don't know all the short term and long term effects of it

But hospitalizations are down, and the next variant may be a "successful virus" that is, asymptomatic and non-lethal

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

1. That is almost undoubtedly what will happen.

Omicron really does seem to be one step in that direction.

[Ms. Toad]

2. This

Don't get me wrong -- Omicron is real and we don't know all the short term and long term effects of it

With 50+% experiencing long COVID, and less than 2 years' knowledge about the disease, coupled with a previously unheard of breadth of symptoms and systems it impacts, it is too soon to take it lightly.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

12. 50%? Source?

I find it very hard to believe that half of the COVID cases are long COVID…

[Ms. Toad]

13. There have been quite a few articles on it.

Here's one:

HERSHEY, Pa. — More than half of the 236 million people who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 worldwide since December 2019 will experience post-COVID symptoms — more commonly known as “long COVID” — up to six months after recovering, according to Penn State College of Medicine researchers.

https://www.psu.edu/news/research/story/how-many-people-get-long-covid-more-half-researchers-find/

Different study, similar time frame, more details:

Among COVID-19 survivors (mean [SD] age: 46.3 [19.8], 55.6% female), 57.00% had one or more long-COVID feature recorded during the whole 6-month period (i.e., including the acute phase), and 36.55% between 3 and 6 months. The incidence of each feature was: abnormal breathing (18.71% in the 1- to 180-day period; 7.94% in the 90- to180-day period), fatigue/malaise (12.82%; 5.87%), chest/throat pain (12.60%; 5.71%), headache (8.67%; 4.63%), other pain (11.60%; 7.19%), abdominal symptoms (15.58%; 8.29%), myalgia (3.24%; 1.54%), cognitive symptoms (7.88%; 3.95%), and anxiety/depression (22.82%; 15.49%).

https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003773

[AZSkiffyGeek]

16. Peer reviewed?

I know it’s anecdotal, and I don’t want to downplay long COVID, but of the dozens of people I know who have had COVID, two were long haulers, and both have recovered.
This is one study that is being quoted in multiple places, but if half are long haulers I think we’d be hearing about it a LOT more.
Edit: I see the peer reviewed article now. But it doesn’t say 50% have long COVID. It says 50% experienced the symptoms at some point in 6 months, including the initial infection. And 30-ish experienced symptoms after 3 months.

[Tomconroy]

17. This article explains it:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/18/1055071699/coronavirus-faq-what-is-long-covid-and-what-is-my-risk-of-getting-it

[AZSkiffyGeek]

18. Nice, non alarmist explanation nt

[Ms. Toad]

19. Did you follow the link I provided to the actual study?

And it is not one study being quoted in multiple places.

I linked to a media piece about one study (Penn State College), and provided a link to a second study (from the UK) with similar - but more detailed results. The second study says prominently near the top of the article that it is peer reviewed.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

20. See my edit nt

[targetpractice]

3. Not entirely. A "successful" variant is simply the one that makes the most copies of itself...

... at the end of the day. The variant with the most copies on the planet after generations... Wins.

Selective pressure would drive a virus to mutate to more transmissible and less lethal versions. I don't think that means asymptomatic though, because presumably the virus sheds and spreads from symptoms like coughing and wheezing all over everybody.

The danger is always mutations... Lots of "mild" virus ubiquitous in the population will likely spawn antibody resistant variants, and probably more lethal ones at some point.

[RFCalifornia]

5. But lethal cuts it's spreadability: a non lethal, asymptomatic virus would gain more hosts

When I did AIDS education in Peace Corps we were told

"HIV is not a successful virus. No successful virus kills its hosts. Common cold: that's a sucessful virus. Passes from host to host and rarely kills it's hosts. And it's never left us"

[targetpractice]

10. That is mostly true...

Not arguing with you at all, RFCalifornia.. HIV is kind of a difficult comparison, because the transmission "process" is very complicated, compared to an airborne virus. And, HIV is transmissible (enough) by a host over many years, and is lethal eventually. Modern meds have changed the HIV scenario immensely.

There are many ways that COVID could mutate in the future... After years of a mild strain in the population, a new anti-body evading strain that happens to be more virulent (disease causing) may pop up, and that would cause a problem for us for some period of time... unless we somehow produce better/broader vaccines and anti-viral treatments.

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but as long as a COVID variant like Omicron, with a high R0 value (transmissibility value), is circulating in the population is a potential risk.

I think you are correct... COVID vaccines will probably be administered along with flu shots every year moving forward. And, a long as unvaccinated people remain susceptible to hospitalization, we have a disruptive societal problem.

[Elessar Zappa]

4. If the death rate comes down to manageable levels,

(like the flu) then we should reopen everything. The point of lockdowns and mask mandates are to reduce hospitalizations and deaths. If that’s accomplished, then we can return to normal. We’re not there yet though.

[RFCalifornia]

6. Yep. Exactly.

We have artificial selection in our toolbox

[Tomconroy]

7. Here's what Dr. Wachter, head of medicine at UCSF, is thinking,

hoping. Hit the Read Full Conversation button for the entire thread. Speculation, but informed speculation.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[KentuckyWoman]

8. Seems like in early 2020 that scenario was part of the conversation

The trouble is that up to now, though maybe only 1-3% deadly, the virus has been troublesome by sheer volume. The "lockdowns", which the US never really did, were an effort to avoid breaking the medical system, morgues etc. And of course spare as many as possible the pain of losing a loved one. I think some believed a full lockdown might choke it out but really, unless every human on the entire planet did so, there was an avenue for it to thrive.

[beaglelover]

9. Lock down? Of course not.

We didn't lock down for the common cold or flu in the past, why on earth would we lock down if COVID 19 evolves into a non life threatening virus?

[leftstreet]

11. lol "still lock down." We never have

We've never had an actual lockdown.

Regardless, even if the virus becomes manageable, people will find themselves selectively and/or seasonally masking for decades to come. Just from common sense

Anyone's who ever lived or spent time in east asia would find this normal

[Mr.Bill]

14. I think another factor is the time period

between infection and when you show symptoms. That's when you are out spreading it because you don't know you have it. I have heard that Omicron has a shorter time than previous variants.