Oddly... Russian success might bring faster Russian surrender and retreat.

[WarGamer]

This is just my opinion.

If the Russians keep getting their asses handed to them... and that's what's happening now...

The Russians will keep pouring the troops and heavy weapons in until they achieve some success.

IF the Russians take Kiev or maybe Kharkiv... any sort of undeniable victory, I think they rush to the negotiation table and cut a quick deal to GTFO of Ukraine.

I think to save face... they'll settle for the smallest of concessions and the Ukrainians will have won a BIG TIME victory.

But for a megalomaniac like Putin, he's not going to stop when the score is 13-0

He needs SOMETHING to cover up for his failure, some kind of victory.

IMHO, if it keeps going the way it goes now... he's going to bring in artillery, mlrs and aerial strikes, probably causing a LOT more damage and death to all sides.

Think back to Gettysburg. 2 Days of Lee getting his ass kicked, came close a few times but no cigar. Arrogance and Hubris took over on July 3, 1863 and he ran his troops into a meat grinder. He ordered one of the largest artillery barrages in the History of the planet at the time.

Desperation breeds recklessness.

That's opinion based on analysis.

Does it mean I'm hoping for a Russian victory? NO!!!

It's just analysis, cold clean analysis based on the situation.

[TheRealNorth]

1. Russia is going to want land

I don't think Ukraine is going want to surrender any land.

It's ultimately up to the Ukrainians, but if Putin and the Russians invaded us tomorrow and wanted us to surrender Alaska for peace, I would tell Putin to go fuck himself.

[leftieNanner]

2. Russia wants more than land IMHO

They want to topple the democratically elected government and install a Putin puppet.

Fear of a functioning democracy next door is what has Putie scared.

[WarGamer]

4. they're not going to get it...

They have no leverage. Ukraine is winning this thing BIG TIME.

Putin is now looking to save face and prepare for an early retirement.

[leftieNanner]

14. I agree with you

He's just hoping his "retirement" doesn't come with a special cup of tea and a flight out of a 5th floor window.

[WarGamer]

15. :)

[WarGamer]

3. The way he's getting his ass kicked... I think he's looking for an excuse to run home.

[Kingofalldems]

5. Wow I thought there wasn't even going to be an invasion.

[WarGamer]

6. I've already explained this to you, KOAD...

I gave reasons WHY Putin shouldn't/wouldn't invade and at the time said IF he does... he's making a strategic mistake and he's an idiot.

But thanks for twisting my words.

[edhopper]

20. So your analysis was wrong then

But right now?

[WarGamer]

21. Putin didn't react logically. My logic was sound.

HE made the illogical and stupid move.

[edhopper]

22. Your analysis was wrong

Because you didn't understand Putin or his ambitions.
To look at him as a solely logical player is a mistake.
The basis for your analysis was, and continues to be flawed.

[WarGamer]

24. I appreciate the reply and participation. Have a great day!

[edhopper]

25. Exactly

It was just your opinion. And your opinion has proven to be wrong every step of the way.

[bullwinkle428]

28. Honestly, it wasn't that the prediction you made turned out to be

wildly wrong. People have done that on countless occasions over my time at DU.

You made a statement to the effect that anyone who believed he would invade has to be some kind of fool or moron. There are several (non-rando) people out there who have been studying this field for decades, and there was a consensus that an invasion was a 50/50 proposition. Almost no one was saying "ABSOLUTELY NOT", as whether it would happen.

You flew too close to the sun, Icarus! Maybe just admit it wouldn't have been a bad idea to pack a parachute!

[WarGamer]

29. Ok... I can see where you're coming from.

Thanks for the reply!

[OnDoutside]

7. On one side of the ledger, you make great points, but I would

counterbalance that with the suggestion that if Ukraine can prolong this, the Russian body count coupled with the increasingly devastating sanctions will take its toll within Russia. Putin can't afford for this to drag on, but I do agree that it will become nasty and awash with war crimes, as the pressure to get something, intensifies.

[WarGamer]

9. agreed, I wish it were over today.

[unblock]

8. Russia would likely "settle" for just the two "disputed" eastern areas.

That was the heavy focus of their propaganda up until a couple weeks before the invasion, so it would Putin could "settle" for "just" those areas and claim victory.

Of course, Ukraine wouldn't and shouldn't agree to this, nor should its allies.

[WarGamer]

10. At this point I think Russia would settle for a promise of "nice treatment" of the Eastern provinces

Putin has no leverage for anything more

[uponit7771]

12. +1, not only that but the RA is forever been defanged. I don't think anyone will be afraid of them

... any longer.

[uponit7771]

11. Logical but I don't think Putler is being logical here, he set out to invade THE WHOLE country and

... didn't calculate Zelensky's support

[WarGamer]

13. Agreed.

[radius777]

16. It's impossible to invade and subjugate

a country that fiercely resists it. We learned that in Iraq and Afghanistan which were far easier opponents than the Ukrainians are, who have a real armed forces that is 200k strong with 200k reserves + volunteers with the West feeding them intelligence, weapons and aid. The US trained them to fight a guerilla war, anticipating this situation, and provisioned them with the appropriate weapons incl javelins ands stingers which are highly effective. They have home field advantage, lots of buildings/houses they can snipe from and throw molitov cocktails and other home made explosives. Even if Russia uses more brutal tactics and 'takes the capital' it's a pyrrhic victory as no gov't they install will last.

[empedocles]

18. With more weapons and assistance to come to Ukraine.

putin can be attacked with both heavy weaponry and targeted sabotage.

[MaryMagdaline]

17. Good analysis

While I am heartened by the Ukrainian defense, I know that Putin will get brutal very quickly in Oder to garner some victory. It will not be pretty for anyone. The Ukrainians will suffer badly.

[usajumpedtheshark]

19. I fear that as well

It doesn't appear that Putin has exerted anywhere near his full force against Ukraine. It seems he is sending his most expendable troops into battle along with some special forces groups. My fear is that all the talk about Ukraine defeating his forces may goad him into using his full strength.

[Kaleva]

26. Putin seems to be having trouble supplying the force he has in Ukraine

Credible reports of military vehicles broke down or out of fuel and of soldiers looking for food because they are hungry.

[Kaleva]

23. Have you changed your opinion of the Russ military not being subpar?

[Scrivener7]

27. So they should cede territory? Seriously? No. They do that and Russia will want more. Then

more and more and more and more.

He needs to have his ass handed to him. No appeasement of bullies. Never.