Paul might be moving up in South Carolina
Last four polls: 9%, 13%, 16%, 20%. (The 20% is read on DU, not yet in RCP average.)
If Paul somehow finished second in South Carolina then the media might have no choice but to recognize that Paul would have been established as the anti-Romney. Finishing 3rd, 2nd, 2nd in the first three contests means that you are the guy in second place.
The media pretends that Paul is not a Republican (and is somehow kooky while Santorum is reasonable) as a favor to the Republican party.
It would take a lot to dislodge that. But seriously... Who is the non-Romney candidate? Who could it be? It's such a puzzle... In a normal world where the media was not in the reality-shaping business the guy who has the second most delegates and gets the second most votes (and probably has the second most money) and is the only non-Romeny candidate with a true national organization (see: Virginia) would be easy to spot as the non-Romney candidate.
If Paul beat all the sanctioned non-Romneys in SC, the "state that matters" could the charade survive?
He is the second strongest Republican candidate. He's a Republican whether that party establishment admits it or not.
It is hard to underestimate the mayhem in the Republican party if this is ever perceived as a Romney v. Paul fight. Romney has never hit Paul. He is desperate not to hit Paul because Paul voters, unlike all other Republicans, might actually not fall in line.
As Gandhi said, first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Paul will never win anything, of course. But it is imperative for the Republican party that Paul not get to the "fight you" stage, and I do not think the Republican establishment has a sensible strategy in place to deal with the possibility. It is a fight they lose either way.
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