No matter what happens in Ukraine... it's been a HUGE victory for Ukraine and the West.

[WarGamer]

Yes, it's probable that many won't like the final situation in Ukraine after the shooting stops... BUT

1) Russia is exposed as a paper tiger, albeit a nuclear armed one.

2) The EU and NATO stood tall as one

3) Russian soldiers are poorly trained and equipped.

4) The Russian "high end gear" either doesn't work or they're afraid to use it.

5) It's a lesson for Taiwan that a ferocious defense can stunt any attack.

6) Global financial interconnectivity is a weapon in itself to isolate bad actors.

7) The EU will wean itself from Russian gas/oil

8) President Biden stands out as the adult in the room who didn't get us into WW3.

9) The concept of "the free, arming those who are willing to fight" has been proven to work.

10) Ukraine will STILL be a Democracy, led by Zelenskyy when this is all over.

[Irish_Dem]

1. 11. China has been thrown a big reality sandwich.

Being a 21st century superpower is not going to be a cake walk for them.

[WarGamer]

2. agreed.

Just imagine how difficult to attack an island bristling with anti-ship and anti-air weapons.

[Irish_Dem]

5. I am sure China had a blitzkreig plan for Taiwan.

Three days tops.

They might have to re-think their plan.

[WarGamer]

8. sounds familiar!!

Taiwan has F16's, Patriot systems and Harpoon missile systems amongst a LOT MORE.

Welcome, China!!!

[uponit7771]

4. +1, this is VERY VERY important. They're going to start making or copying their own military ...

... equipment now seeing Russian military equipment in a conventional war sucks.

[Irish_Dem]

7. Oh yes China will learn from Russia's mistakes.

And re-calibrate their plans.

[uponit7771]

13. I was talking to an ex infantry this weekend, I don't think they can. War has now changed ....

... for a generation or two seeing shoulder fired munitions are cheap and easy to build for even a small country.

Troops with SFM can't be tracked like tanks and plans and big boats and there's relatively little training to use them

If the ability to get long range or even medium range SFM AA like a bigger stinger than even high flying jets have to recalibrate hard.

I think that's a good thing ... I think

[Irish_Dem]

16. They could do it another way perhaps.

Political plans. Or intimidation. They know now the the Western nations are afraid of WWIII and nukes.

But they could also come in very quickly to Taiwan, wipe out the military and civilian leadership, all the comm systems and power grid. Take over Taipei the capital, first thing. They are only a couple of hundred miles from Taiwan so supply chains are not a problem.

Yes I hear you, war has changed dramatically and China doesn't have much combat experience. And they are very afraid of economic sanctions.

So they have quite a bit of work to do in terms of gaining superpower status. Their plans have been set back.

[uponit7771]

17. Unnn he pointed out Taiwan is separated by 100 miles of Ocean getting supplies there would be a ...

... nightmare from China.

It took Russia 3 months to build up staging for 200,000 forces and get them 50 miles ... China has to do this across a 100 mile ocean.

Yeah, US and NATO train because it's Tuesday an it shows I don't think China has a professional military like the west does

[Irish_Dem]

18. China has the world's largest Navy, 355 ships.

Getting supplies and troops across the Taiwan strait should not be a problem.

China also has the world's third largest Air Force. A hundred miles is not a long trip for cargo planes.

China has the world's largest standing army, 2 million active duty.

China has has troops stationed right across the Taiwan strait who have been practicing landing techniques.

On paper they could do it. But they don't have combat experience and have a rigid command structure, so who knows. And they don't want financial sanctions.

China learned from Putin's mistakes that what looks good on paper means nothing in war.

Taiwan is safe for the near future.

[uponit7771]

22. 👉🏾 "China learned from Putin's mistakes that what looks good on paper means nothing in war."

[Spider Jerusalem]

19. Their own equipment wouldn't be any better

one of the lessons of this war going forward is going to be that drones and smart-targeting anti-tank weapons like NLAW and Javelin have rendered the main battle tank obsolete or at least obsolescent; massed armour formations are just giant targets to modern anti-tank weapons. An Abrams or Challenger 2 would probably have had fewer crew casualties than the Russians did with their T-72's, T-80's and T-90's, but they wouldn't be any more effective vs NLAWs and Bayraktar drones.

[uponit7771]

21. +1, add close in air support to with more accurate stinger missiles. If someone can make

... shoulder fired medium range missiles that's a game changer for stand off ground support.

Yeah, war has changed and smaller countries can afford AA and SFM

[brush]

3. And Biden emerges as the foreign policy statesman who...

didn't appease Putin...in fact he stood up to Putin and Putin has failed and is now backing down.

It's huge.

[WarGamer]

6. I'd be careful with the "putin failed" and "backing down" thing.

As the US official confirmed today...

US official warns any Russian troop movement ‘not a withdrawal’
Any movement of Russian forces from around Kyiv would constitute a “redeployment, not a withdrawal”, a US official has said after Russia promised to scale down military operations near the Ukrainian capital.

“We believe any movement of Russian forces from around Kyiv is a redeployment, not a withdrawal. And the world should be prepared for continued major offensives against other areas of Ukraine,” the official said, adding: “They are shifting gears… No one should mistake that for Russia ending the conflict.”




Last week I explained how after suffering "defeat" at Kiev, Putin will focus on the East and Black Sea region, probably consuming another chunk of Ukraine to add to Crimea.

And Zelenskyy is quoted as saying the Ukrainian Army will not go on the offense to take back those regions.

[brush]

9. Oh, he's failed all right. He thought he would take Ukraine...

in three days. The whole country in three days. That hadn't happen in 33 days.

He failed all right.

[WarGamer]

10. But the "Plan B" isn't too hot for Ukraine, either.

[uponit7771]

14. +1, I too want UKR to burn Putrids army to the ground but I think its still too early. Russia is ...

... is "rushing" back to the east to dig in knowing defending the JFO is going to be way easier than attacking it.

If Zel wants Putrid out all the way he has to extract them from JFO with a lot of force.

damn ... I thought I couldn't loath someone more than TFG ... fuck Putrid

[WarGamer]

15. +1000 so true...

[brewens]

11. Yes, barring insanity that makes us all losers. It's a wakeup call for us too. How do you operate

safely with military vehicles anywhere against a serious enemy?

We've done a lot of fighting where the enemy had those rocket propelled grenade launchers which are dangerous, but nothing like what the Ukrainians are killing the Russians with. Other countries make those type of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons too. There would be no completely stopping them from getting those to an enemy of ours if they really wanted to.

How does some of the stuff we've recently done work if they have those? Pull a vehicle out in the open and someone can kill it for sure from 600 to 800 meters. How do we ever have enough guys to look behind every bush to stop that?

[WarGamer]

12. +1000, great points

No tank is safe, anywhere in the world.

It's like WW2 again, armored units will need motorized infantry escort.

[Quixote1818]

20. And in the end, I think Russia will end up extremely weak on the world stage or possibly

even collapse. They had a shitty economy before and now they are going to have half of that and will likely remain a pariah to most of the important countries. They won't be much of a conventional war threat to anyone after all is said and done.

[WarGamer]

23. I see a new moderate leader in the next few years...