General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSinking of the Moskva is a game changer. My updated thoughts on the war.
This is all opinion.
All hopes for an early end to the Ukraine War are finished.
Ironically... the very success of the Ukrainians will prolong the destruction and killing.
The Russians will NEVER and let me repeat... NEVER walk away from this as the loser.
As the young people say, Ukraine has been "clowning" Russia.
Humiliation, embarrassment, ridicule.. all well deserved. But the Russians take it personally and will turn the Moskva into a rallying cry.
The Russians will send 500k... maybe 1m to the meat grinder but they won't stop.
And for those who think the Ukrainians are indestructible, they're not. Read an interview with a Ukrainian fighter jet pilot who said "We're losing planes daily, they don't talk about it publicly but we are". 1000 Ukrainian Marines surrendered in Mariupol this week including a UK citizen.
The atrocities will be amped up. The bombing of residential areas will be intensified under the pretense that since the gov't handed out weapons to civilians, "there are no non-combatants in the cities".
I think this thing will go WW2 style and they'll just turn cities to rubble. There won't BE a Ukraine when it's all over.
Anyone who asks "Then what do we do?"
I don't have an answer. If pushed I guess I'll say, keep supplying the Ukrainians and if the price in human capital gets too high... maybe there will be a Russian coup??
Gidney N Cloyd
(19,780 posts)WarGamer
(12,103 posts)Gidney N Cloyd
(19,780 posts)To me, the fact that they're not blaming it on Ukraine military action is a way for them to leave themselves a way out without looking like they're slinking away with their tails between their legs.
WarGamer
(12,103 posts)Gidney N Cloyd
(19,780 posts)EX500rider
(10,517 posts)femmedem
(8,187 posts)WarGamer
(12,103 posts)Tetrachloride
(7,721 posts)I agree with only that this is a game changer of morale.
If another couple of ships soon lose their combat ability, that would not be unexpected.
pecosbob
(7,502 posts)as if they hadn't already invaded. The government still denies the attack yet they would very much like to use this as an excuse to ramp up.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)brush
(53,467 posts)out to be a negotiated peace as NATO will not desert supporting Ukraine. And a negotiated peace is nothing but a lost to the Russians who expected to take over the whole country in a week or less.
The Russians have already lost that goal and the whole world knows it.
WarGamer
(12,103 posts)brush
(53,467 posts)entire country in a week. And now they've suffer another high-profile lost...their flagship in the Black Sea.
FakeNoose
(32,328 posts)Switzerland, Finland and Sweden are joining NATO very shortly.
I believe Ukraine's application will be fast-tracked but they can't join while they're involved in a combat situation. I hope that rule will change, but for now it's not allowed.
This will be the game-changer - yessirree!
WarGamer
(12,103 posts)Not going to happen.
keithbvadu2
(36,360 posts)Putin could go in with even heavier weaponry.
More efficient mass killing/destruction.
TheBlackAdder
(28,070 posts).
They kept saying that it's time to turn the country into glass.
.
orwell
(7,753 posts)...scorched earth was always plan B. Nothing has changed. That is Putrid's modus operandi...
I hope they make the costs very high for this butcher. The longer this lasts, the deeper hole he digs for himself. What happens when his market for oil and natural gas to Europe dries up? This high cost of hydrocarbons is only accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels. The years of Russia being the world's gangster gas pump are only going to end sooner.
With the current brain drain, and death scape demographics, he is sealing his country's slide into obscurity. It really is an incomprehensibly stupid move on Putrid's part.
WarGamer
(12,103 posts)I was 100% sure there would be no invasion because it'd be STUPID with little upside.
And then BOOM they did it... still shaking my head.
orwell
(7,753 posts)...up to that point he was essentially getting everything he wanted at almost zero cost.
Now the whole world is paying for this stupidity. People are not only dying in Ukraine, but millions more are likely going to starve in some of the poorest parts of the world that have nothing to do with his geopolitical ambition.
But this is how mob bosses eventually fall. They get high on their own supply...
Calculating
(2,954 posts)I still have no idea how this is anything but ruin for both countries. Ukraine gets bombed to rubble, and Russia takes a spot lower than North Korea in the world stage in addition to economic rand military ruin.
gaskinite
(73 posts)The OP may be correct. Putin will continue even if he has to promote conscripts to General.
On the other hand it is problematic to have a lack of logistical leadership even if the ones who were purged were corrupt and incompetent.
orwell
(7,753 posts)...to take Shoigu out.
Who is left at the end of the long table?
Too bad he doesn't believe in seppuku...
Crunchy Frog
(26,548 posts)He's probably one of the few who could have done it.
orwell
(7,753 posts)...and the dead.
I wonder what a life insurance policy costs if you are one of Putin's inner circle...
Chainfire
(17,304 posts)But I don't believe that sinking one, even a very important, warship will have a dramatic effect on the war effort. The ship was described as the pride of the Russian Navy. I think that it is important to remember that this ship was a product of the Soviet Union. You would think that they had something a little more recent to brag about. Putin has to hang on to the glory of the failed Soviet Union, because he hasn't able to advance the Country. That is a hell of an indictment.
Even though the Russians claim that the sinking was cause by an accident, they have moved their Navy 80 miles off of the Ukrainian coast. Perhaps they will be surprised to discover that that is still within range of the Ukrainian Neptune missiles. I read the Russian claim that it sank in stormy seas, while being towed. The Russians would never admit that that big fucking hole in the side of the ship had anything to do with it. At least the fires will be out now...
WarGamer
(12,103 posts)I can think of MANY WW2 warships that were hit with a LOT more than 150kg warheads and stayed afloat.
The Bismarck was "target practice" for hours and didn't go down until the Germans scuttled her.
I guess the shipyard owner bought a new Italian villa plus a yacht.
Chainfire
(17,304 posts)that killed the warship, it was the size of the resulting fires. In the Navy, every man is trained as a firefighter, the schooling and the practice never ends, and still fires get out of control and kill ships. We saw that recently with the The USS Bonhomme Richard.
It may have been that the missile hit a critical area, fuel storage or munitions storage. Even if Russian sailors are highly trained and very efficient firefighters, it is not a game you can always win. If the sailors were no better trained in damage control, than the Russian ground troops were trained in fighting, they would not have had a chance to save the ship.
Our trainers never got tire of telling us that more sailors die of fire than by drowning.
WarGamer
(12,103 posts)And much respect for your service, my grandfather was on the USS Cleveland 1943-1945 for lots of big battles.
Amishman
(5,538 posts)Their defense is structured around their anti ship and anti air missiles. If something got close enough to hit them, the ship had already failed.
Kingofalldems
(38,359 posts)Just freaking wow.
WarGamer
(12,103 posts)I'd guess it was you on the first try.
You're one of a kind, KOAD.
Kingofalldems
(38,359 posts)WarGamer
(12,103 posts)It's a silly question. One that I answered later in the post.
From OP:
"I don't have an answer. If pushed I guess I'll say, keep supplying the Ukrainians and if the price in human capital gets too high... maybe there will be a Russian coup??"
Kingofalldems
(38,359 posts)walk away the loser. A post saying Russia won't lose in all caps, then a modifier. I get it.
WarGamer
(12,103 posts)Who said anything about surrender? You were the first to suggest it.
NickB79
(19,109 posts)They're using unseasoned conscripts, poorly armed and fed, driving decrepit vehicles with tires that are literally rotting away from lack of maintenance. Ukraine now has MORE tanks than when the war started.
Decades of corruption have turned the RU military into a shell of it's former self.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/14/europe/ukraine-war-russia-trucks-logistics-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
At the same time, NATO has been escalating it's equipment shipments, giving more, and more powerful, weapon systems as time progresses.
The only options Russia will have left to deal decisive blows are by using chemical or nuclear weapons (which I don't discount though, sadly). They don't even have a significant heavy bomber wing like we do with our B-52's, capable of carpet bombing cities with conventional warheads. And with the flow of drones and counter artillery coming in on the UKR side from NATO, their artillery batteries will be hampered as well.
WarGamer
(12,103 posts)I think they'll just use artillery and air strikes to turn the cities to rubble. Our own DoD people said think "years" not weeks.
Kaleva
(36,145 posts)The US is sending kamikaze Switchblade drones which a swarm of them could take out RU artillery positions..
The UKR will get more and more of the advanced weapons from the West while RU will be limited to using it's stock of Soviet era legacy weapons.
pnwmom
(108,925 posts)in his drive to reestablish the Russian Empire.
Finland? Alaska? Who knows.
SmallFry
(349 posts)Three weeks or so left in this war. It appears Putin was already planning on increasing attacks. The sinking of this ship is simply going to make it worse.
After a couple of days of shelling like we have yet to see Putin is going to move the rest of his convoys(currently sitting around the border) into Ukraine and they along with his forces already in Ukraine will finish taking key cities. A deal will be struck. The deal will be on a much smaller scale than what has been discussed in previous negotiations. Putin keeps the land. Deal done. There are enormous Ukrainian benefits that would come with such a deal. It would be a massive loss for Putin in reality.
Putin can claim victory at home. Ukraine gets to say they drove out the monsters and apply to NATO for protection.
The atrocities will be amped up. The bombing of residential areas will be intensified under the pretense that since the gov't handed out weapons to civilians, "there are no non-combatants in the cities".
I fully agree with that. I just think its going to occur in a short period of time. I believe we are about to watch the last months worth of warfare happen in days. Then full infiltration into specific areas. Urban combat. At that point Putins new intentions for victory will be so clear that the world will continue to watch.
The end of this is not going to be outright victory for anyone, though most involved will claim victory.
I say these things for a couple of reasons.
I can think of no other way Putin can claim victory.
He cant hold Ukraine.
In the next month or two Putin is going to lose many of the power players who have been loyal to him, the oligarchs and those surrounding them, once trusted military leaders, and his people. He already sees it. The citizens he can handle, his inner circle, not so much.
I dont think many have figured out Putins mindset with respect to casualties. He has given us all the clues but I dont really hear people talk about it. Its discussed using distinction between military and civilian. I made a comment earlier today about people conflating the gay community and pedophilia. Its not ok to kill someone for their sexual identity(I understand that cant stand as an absolute statement), many will shrug and move along if its a pedophile. Putin hasnt only defined the Ukrainian government and military as Nazis, but also the Ukrainian people. He has defined citizens as part of the war. There is no distinction when looking at body count. Through that lens things look a lot different. Then there is what you reference about the government handing out weapons and conscription. Putin doesnt view any Ukrainian as a citizen in this war.
All that said, I feel I could back just about every single part of your opinion. I know Im wrong, I just dont know to what degree Im wrong. I just dont think Putin has leveling the country in the cards. Though it might look like it next week.
I really want to see the Ukrainians begin grieving and rebuilding. One of the most sad things is that I think my opinion might be laced with rose colored glasses.
Red Mountain
(1,704 posts)and Russian resolve.
They're going to have a hard time replacing equipment losses at some point. Yes, they have lots of reserve antiquated crap they MIGHT be able to get running and point west. It won't help them much. They're hollowing themselves out and everybody knows it.....especially the Russians.
If the Ukrainians want to defend their country (with our weapons) they can probably do it. Will they take back territory they lost? I hope so but would guess it will end up as a bargaining chip.
Only people who win 'win' are the arms manufacturers. Russians and Ukrainians all lose until something shakes loose.
Shanti Shanti Shanti
(12,047 posts)The good news is Ukraine is facing a 1980s army and navy, they will get their piece of flesh too, they will fight on.
Sink em all!
BootinUp
(46,924 posts)I don't doubt that Ukraine has suffered horrible losses. But there is no way in hale, that the Russians will be more motivated than the Ukrainians, I'm sure you agree. Most military experts I have watched/read over the last month think the Ukrainians can sustain an insurgency far longer than Russia can stomach one.
honest.abe
(8,556 posts)I really doubt anything in this war can be described as "NEVER and let me repeat... NEVER" as you put it.
Liberal In Texas
(13,452 posts)Putin won't let this be unanswered. It's going to be something awful.
The ruskies should expect that the weapons firing bombs into their country are fair targets. I'm surprised that the Ukrainians haven't hit canon emplacements just over the border in Russia.
LetMyPeopleVote
(143,998 posts)jcgoldie
(11,582 posts)Every time Ukraine succeeds in a war objective you tell us how bad it is for Ukraine because Russia will be REALLY serious now. The war would have been quick and easy if the Ukrainians had just rolled over. Bunch of nonsense.
roamer65
(36,739 posts)Chainfire
(17,304 posts)One thing for certain is that the Moskva did, 5 weeks later, go fuck itself.
roamer65
(36,739 posts)I got a block of the Ukrainian GFY stamps and I am going to buy a frame and sit it on my desk.
mahatmakanejeeves
(56,884 posts)Wed Apr 13, 2022: Ukrainian fighter pilots in old jets take on better-equipped Russians
Ukrainian fighter pilots in old jets take on better-equipped Russians
By Isabelle Khurshudyan
Today at 2:00 a.m. EDT
ODESSA, Ukraine The fighter pilot known as Juice usually just has a few minutes to scramble. When he is on-call, which is pretty much always these days, he cannot be more than a bathroom break away from his cockpit. When a cruise missile or a Russian fighter is spotted moving toward the area Juice is assigned to by the Ukrainian air force, he doesnt even have time to run through standard safety checks before taking off.
Were ready to be killed, said Juice, who provided only his call sign for security reasons. ... But we dont want this, of course, the 29-year-old added. We want to kill Russians and take down their bombers that are killing our cities and our families. ... Juice is one of the pilots helping Ukraine pull off the biggest surprise of this war: Its military has kept the airspace over Ukraine contested despite Russias more advanced jets and superior numbers. But he and other pilots say thats not enough. While Kyivs forces have perhaps even outperformed Moscows on the ground, Russia has continued to inflict heavy losses on Ukraine from the sky.
{snip video}
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appealed to the United States and other NATO allies to establish a no-fly zone over the country a step that leaders in the military alliance refused to take, citing fears of touching off a world war with Moscow. Now Zelensky is pushing for more advanced air-defense systems and jets. ... But Juice and others have said the weapons that countries have discussed transferring to Ukraine particularly Russian-made MiG-29 fighters and U.S.-made Stinger antiaircraft missiles wont help Kyivs air force tip the scales in its favor. The gap between the weapons Ukraine wants and what Western countries are willing to supply has become a key tension nearly two months into the fighting.
{more snipping}
Analysts at the Oryx Blog, which tracks Russian military losses, documented 20 aircraft and 30 helicopters destroyed or damaged in Ukraine.
{again with the snipping}
Gift Article
https://wapo.st/37H7LaF
By Isabelle Khurshudyan
Isabelle Khurshudyan is a foreign correspondent based in Moscow. A University of South Carolina graduate, she has worked at The Washington Post since 2014, previously as a sports reporter covering the Washington Capitals, high school sports and local colleges. Twitter https://twitter.com/ikhurshudyan
Oryx Thursday, February 24, 2022 Bayraktar TB2 , DNR
{snip}
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)They are about at their limit already.
They cannot win and they cannot sustain this attack indefinitely.