Dems now have a 1% polling advantage; the GOP fell 6 points since November.

[SunSeeker]

Per ABC News:
Looking to November, registered voters divide essentially evenly between Democratic and Republican candidates for Congress, 46-45%. That’s a comedown for the GOP from its lead of 7 points in February and 10 points last November -- the latter, the largest Republican midterm advantage in ABC/Post polls back 40 years. The change is led by a close contest among political independents, swing voters in most national elections, from a 50-32% Republican lead in November to an even 42-42% now.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/gop-strong-crime-boosted-trust-inflation-poll/story?id=84403842


I wonder how much tonight's news will accelerate the GOP slide?

[dchill]

1. And, to be clear, this is before the SCOTUS leak.

[SunSeeker]

2. Yup, which is why I'm wondering how much SCOTUS scuttling Roe will accelerate the GOP slide. nt

[pnwmom]

3. So how come the pundits keep predicting a Republican House takeover?

[SunSeeker]

4. I think they're assuming the GOP will have higher turnout because it's a midterm.

Tradionally that is the case. And with polling essentially tied, whoever has better turnout wins.


I think the SCOTUS overturning Roe changes that conventional wisdom.

[Demovictory9]

5. repubs are going to work hard to make voters forget about abortion until after election

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

6. The gop also has an advantage in the generic ballot

Due to gerrymandering. Typically we need a large point lead to do well in the House. Even or near even and gop will win the house. In 2020, RCP and 538 had us at near a 8pt lead in the generic and we still lost seats in the House. This year's redistricting went better than expected for us but not enough to reverse decades of gerrymandering.