General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDon't look at your 401K... DOW down 1100+ AGAIN.
Bad day unless you shorted SPY at EOD yesterday...
I had a few puts but sold too early this morning and missed a 25X return.
On the bright side, Fuckerberg, Musk and Bezos are losing billions today.
Jerome Powell yesterday after FOMC meeting...
"I can't guarantee a soft landing"... possibly "softish".
Joinfortmill
(14,393 posts)Emile
(22,496 posts)WarGamer
(12,355 posts)Inflation, Recession, C19, Supply chain and a real estate bubble that if/when bursts will make 2008 look like a picnic.
nt
Response to WarGamer (Original post)
USALiberal This message was self-deleted by its author.
a kennedy
(29,617 posts)nevergiveup
(4,756 posts)because my retirement is being decimated. It is depressing and there is nothing I can do about it. Thanks for the report.
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)mobeau69
(11,132 posts)WarGamer
(12,355 posts)Oh wait...
it doesn't.
totodeinhere
(13,056 posts)That's one reason why the slide in global markets is so serious because many retirement accounts are losing steam and without a good retirement fund people can't survive on Social Security alone.
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)NO American should be destitute in their golden years.
I have family members who "worked" only 10-15 years of their life because of caring for children, parents... helping a spouse with their business...
And ended up with a SS payment of $600/mo
MineralMan
(146,262 posts)If things keep going this way, that's possible.
I'm out. I've been out for a long time.
It's Crypto all the way down for me!
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)LAS14
(13,769 posts)MineralMan
(146,262 posts)LAS14
(13,769 posts)totodeinhere
(13,056 posts)And with inflation running rampant I am afraid that I am going to need a lot more to retire on than I had previously thought. However, I am aware that global forces mostly out of the control of President Biden have caused this. I have no doubt that if Trump were still in office things would be much, much worse. I just hope that the electorate realizes this, but I have my doubts. So many voters are so stupid that I am afraid that the Democrats will be blamed for inflation and other ills even though such blame would be completely unfair.
GoCubsGo
(32,075 posts)The stock market is volatile now, and it's due to numerous factors, including the war in Ukraine, pandemic-related supply chain shock, and other factors. I'm not going to drive myself crazy over it. Things will settle down, hopefully sooner, rather than later.
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)DFW
(54,302 posts)I don't have them any more. But I would have had to pay 20% on the gains, which in my case is most of the value of my "portfolio," if it is even worthy of the title. So, I'll let it slide, and continue to let it be a spectator sport. Until the stocks are sold, it's just keeping score anyway. The moment when I have to liquidate is when it becomes real money.
beaglelover
(3,460 posts)So what goes down will go up up up when the market goes up again. Im still invested for the long haul and not too worried about these recent dips.
dawg
(10,621 posts)I know it's painful when it happens, but pullbacks of this size are a relatively common happening for equity markets.
We're essentially at full employment, so I think the economy can absorb a few rate hikes until inflation stabilizes and goes back down.
My biggest concern is that uninformed voters will blame President Biden for something that is a worldwide phenomenon and beyond the ability of any one national leader to fix.
If this were happening under Trump, we would be making things much, much worse by committing unforced policy errors. Thank God the adults are in charge.
AngryOldDem
(14,061 posts)Im trying to hold on for at least three more years.
And yes, people will look for someone to blame, and that will be Biden. If they were quick to blame him for gas prices
forthemiddle
(1,375 posts)I just cant look .
Chuuku Davis
(565 posts)I am down 9.5% since Jan 1 and that means my income is down.
I did start collecting SS this month.
dawg
(10,621 posts)All they can do is to keep their spending to a minimum and draw down any cash balances they have rather than selling more bonds and equities at already depressed levels.
I think it's the retired folks who are affected the worst. People with a few years left to work might actually see their balances fully recover.
Amishman
(5,554 posts)This is a measure of the value of the S&P 500 in terms of stock price against the actual company earnings. The higher the number, the further the stocks are valued in excess of their actual earnings.
Historical average going back 100+ years is around 16. More modern average (past 25 years) is in the low 20s.
Moved most of my 401k to bonds months ago when the Fed started talking about major increases in rates and shrinking their balance sheet
AngryOldDem
(14,061 posts)With every passing day my hope for being able to retire comfortably with some assurance that I wont end up in the poorhouse gets even more distant.
Usually I dont get bent out of shape over corrections, but this is beginning to feel like a perfect storm of shit. Ive got a bad feeling about all this.
honest.abe
(8,614 posts)That might be good news. Should put downward pressure on inflation if people are not buying stuff.
former9thward
(31,941 posts)Retail spending rose for the fourth straight month as inflation remained high
Americans continued to pump money into the U.S. economy in April, with increased retail spending offering the latest sign consumers are driving demand at stores and manufacturers despite the pinch from high inflation.
Retail salesa measure of spending at stores, online and in restaurantsrose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% last month compared with March, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That marked the fourth straight month of higher retail spending.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-retail-sales-april-2022-11652734620
Chuuku Davis
(565 posts)That means actual item sales volume was down around 7.5%
former9thward
(31,941 posts)They are released every month but the comparison is what it was a year ago for that month. If sales were measured the same way it would be 10.8% (0,9 x 12)-- quite a bit higher than 8.5%.
honest.abe
(8,614 posts)former9thward
(31,941 posts)While retail spending increased the costs because of inflation hurt companies bottom lines. So their stocks were hurt because their total revenue was down.
honest.abe
(8,614 posts)their customers not buying hard goods where they have a higher margin. So sales are down. Right?
former9thward
(31,941 posts)Retail spending was up in April. One reason profits are down is that inflation is causing consumers to go for lower cost, lower margin items. Another reason is that inflation is increasing the cost of goods and services that companies have to buy.
dpibel
(2,826 posts)It's just echoing in my mind.
I have a vague image of a fat, orange humanoid on a stage somewhere declaiming about your 401K.
Can't quite place it.
Sound familiar to anyone else?
BannonsLiver
(16,311 posts)He has people carrying that message for him intentionally, or in the case of the OP, unintentionally. Of course, DU is mostly a bubble as far as like minded people so no minds will be swayed to vote GOP because the market is in the tank. Still, I'd be careful bemoaning this in mixed company so as not to amplify what will surely be a GOP talking point later this year.
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)The idea that it's some sort of "RW Talking point" is silly... I mean REALLY silly, laughable.
NO ONE here blames Biden and no one that DOES blame Biden is reading here.
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)It's just the facts. The DOW cratered by nearly 1200 today. Don't believe me, check the WSJ.
former9thward
(31,941 posts)Zuckerberg, Musk and Bezos are not losing billions today because they are not selling anything. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday that Buffett is happy with the market going down because he is buying at low prices.
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)Because technically you're correct.
The NET WORTH TODAY of Zuckerberg, Bezos and Musk dropped by billions.
Noahv
(61 posts)Soon.
roamer65
(36,744 posts)This sucker needs to keep dropping.
Response to WarGamer (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)But the buck always stops at the steps to the Oval Office.
Demovictory9
(32,421 posts)WarGamer
(12,355 posts)The Fed Funds Rate today is 1.0%... was 0.50 a month ago.
Will be going up probably every month until it's 3.5-4%
Unless the stock market crashes (more) then Powell has said he may adjust that schedule.
So the real effect of the Fed Fund rate hasn't even been felt.
It's supply chain, it's fuel prices... it's inflation, it's the impending real estate bubble... it's many things without an easy solution.
And ignore the people on the TV who say we're going to miss the recession... we're not. It's coming.
nattyice
(331 posts)WarGamer
(12,355 posts)If you have cash... sit on it for now.
roamer65
(36,744 posts)The Feds ultra cheap and easy quantitative easing money.
This tightening is going to wreak havoc in Chinas property market as well.
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)For more than a year you could pick basically ANY stock and play it long and win BIG.
I was just placing buys for call options every Monday and by Wednesday the options would be 2-3x in value... worked most every week.
I can only imagine how much money the big guys made.
roamer65
(36,744 posts)It eventually took 21 percent interest rates in 1979-1981 to quell 12 percent inflation, with permanent damage done to our manufacturing economy.
Fast forward to now.
There are still MAJOR supply chain problems influencing demand and we have inflated M1 money supply by at least 50 percent.
Small rate rises wont kill inflation and the government cannot afford borrowing costs going too high, lest we set off a fiscal crisis.
Inflation is here to stay.
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)With the GOP in charge, it'd be Seniors eating cat food and families living under bridges.
Tickle
(2,488 posts)Everyday it seems to be something. It's good the democrats are in charge to get us out of this
Recursion
(56,582 posts)If you're not near retirement these dips are good news...
WarGamer
(12,355 posts)Wait until we can see the effect of increased Fed Fund rates and of the Q3 GDP comes in negative which would be the official "RECESSION" definition.
I haven't touched our long term investments, they'll be fine when we will start drawing from them, in around 8-10 years...
But my daily trading account is 100% cash, I rarely hold a position overnight. It's just too risky. Back in 20/21 I'd be options contracts with an expiration a month out and hold for as long as necessary to hit my profit target. But today... that'd be a disaster.
So I go in and out... 2-3 trades a day.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I have an investment account I never think about that gets 8% of my paycheck and, over the course of the next 20 years, is set to slowly transfer from 100% growth equities to 100% fixed income. Timing the market is a fool's errand, IMO.