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Wed May 18, 2022, 01:07 PM

Don't look at your 401K... DOW down 1100+ AGAIN.

Bad day unless you shorted SPY at EOD yesterday...

I had a few puts but sold too early this morning and missed a 25X return.

On the bright side, Fuckerberg, Musk and Bezos are losing billions today.

Jerome Powell yesterday after FOMC meeting...

"I can't guarantee a soft landing"... possibly "softish".

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Reply Don't look at your 401K... DOW down 1100+ AGAIN. (Original post)
WarGamer May 2022 OP
Joinfortmill May 2022 #1
Emile May 2022 #2
WarGamer May 2022 #4
Thtwudbeme May 2022 #5
USALiberal May 2022 #3
a kennedy May 2022 #6
nevergiveup May 2022 #7
WarGamer May 2022 #8
mobeau69 May 2022 #9
WarGamer May 2022 #10
totodeinhere May 2022 #14
WarGamer May 2022 #16
MineralMan May 2022 #11
WarGamer May 2022 #12
LAS14 May 2022 #48
MineralMan May 2022 #56
LAS14 May 2022 #57
totodeinhere May 2022 #13
GoCubsGo May 2022 #15
WarGamer May 2022 #17
DFW May 2022 #18
beaglelover May 2022 #19
dawg May 2022 #20
AngryOldDem May 2022 #23
forthemiddle May 2022 #31
Chuuku Davis May 2022 #29
dawg May 2022 #37
Amishman May 2022 #21
AngryOldDem May 2022 #22
honest.abe May 2022 #24
former9thward May 2022 #27
Chuuku Davis May 2022 #30
former9thward May 2022 #33
honest.abe May 2022 #32
former9thward May 2022 #34
honest.abe May 2022 #38
former9thward May 2022 #41
dpibel May 2022 #25
BannonsLiver May 2022 #40
WarGamer May 2022 #50
WarGamer May 2022 #46
former9thward May 2022 #26
WarGamer May 2022 #45
Noahv May 2022 #28
roamer65 May 2022 #35
GoodRaisin May 2022 #36
Name removed May 2022 #39
WarGamer May 2022 #44
Demovictory9 May 2022 #42
WarGamer May 2022 #43
nattyice May 2022 #47
WarGamer May 2022 #49
roamer65 May 2022 #51
WarGamer May 2022 #52
roamer65 May 2022 #53
WarGamer May 2022 #54
Tickle May 2022 #55
Recursion May 2022 #58
WarGamer May 2022 #59
Recursion May 2022 #60

Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:08 PM

1. Jesus.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:13 PM

2. I'm sick of these Predatory Capitalists!

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Response to Emile (Reply #2)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:14 PM

4. It's fairly clear that the economy is in biiiig trouble.

Inflation, Recession, C19, Supply chain and a real estate bubble that if/when bursts will make 2008 look like a picnic.

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Response to WarGamer (Reply #4)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:17 PM

5. Agreed

 

nt

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)


Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:18 PM

6. OMGAWD.......

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:19 PM

7. I have been trying really hard to avoid anything regarding the markets recently

because my retirement is being decimated. It is depressing and there is nothing I can do about it. Thanks for the report.

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Response to nevergiveup (Reply #7)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:21 PM

8. If you have time on your side... you'll make it all back and then some.

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Response to WarGamer (Reply #8)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:25 PM

9. And if you don't, it doesn't matter.

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Response to mobeau69 (Reply #9)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:28 PM

10. At least we all have SS that pays a livable benefit...

Oh wait...

it doesn't.

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Response to WarGamer (Reply #10)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:42 PM

14. It was never intended to pay a livable benefit by itself. Maybe it should but it doesn't.

That's one reason why the slide in global markets is so serious because many retirement accounts are losing steam and without a good retirement fund people can't survive on Social Security alone.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #14)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:48 PM

16. My "pet" policy issue is SS benefits.

NO American should be destitute in their golden years.

I have family members who "worked" only 10-15 years of their life because of caring for children, parents... helping a spouse with their business...

And ended up with a SS payment of $600/mo

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:33 PM

11. DOW Under 30K?

If things keep going this way, that's possible.

I'm out. I've been out for a long time.

It's Crypto all the way down for me!

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #11)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:36 PM

12. lol...

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #11)

Wed May 18, 2022, 05:58 PM

48. Seriously??? Or is WarGamer right to chuckle??? nt

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Response to LAS14 (Reply #48)

Wed May 18, 2022, 07:32 PM

56. You must have missed the rofl smilie.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #56)

Wed May 18, 2022, 08:22 PM

57. I did, I did. I'm not a visual person. nt

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:39 PM

13. I have lost a lot of money. My portfolio has not been doing well lately.

And with inflation running rampant I am afraid that I am going to need a lot more to retire on than I had previously thought. However, I am aware that global forces mostly out of the control of President Biden have caused this. I have no doubt that if Trump were still in office things would be much, much worse. I just hope that the electorate realizes this, but I have my doubts. So many voters are so stupid that I am afraid that the Democrats will be blamed for inflation and other ills even though such blame would be completely unfair.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:46 PM

15. In my case, it's a 403B, but I don't look at it.

The stock market is volatile now, and it's due to numerous factors, including the war in Ukraine, pandemic-related supply chain shock, and other factors. I'm not going to drive myself crazy over it. Things will settle down, hopefully sooner, rather than later.

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Response to GoCubsGo (Reply #15)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:49 PM

17. Yeah, long term you're good.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 01:52 PM

18. Two months ago, I had a huge amount of paper profits

I don't have them any more. But I would have had to pay 20% on the gains, which in my case is most of the value of my "portfolio," if it is even worthy of the title. So, I'll let it slide, and continue to let it be a spectator sport. Until the stocks are sold, it's just keeping score anyway. The moment when I have to liquidate is when it becomes real money.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 02:01 PM

19. You buy more shares of each fund when prices are low.

So what goes down will go up up up when the market goes up again. I’m still invested for the long haul and not too worried about these recent dips.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 02:05 PM

20. Only those less than ten years away from retirement should worry.

I know it's painful when it happens, but pullbacks of this size are a relatively common happening for equity markets.

We're essentially at full employment, so I think the economy can absorb a few rate hikes until inflation stabilizes and goes back down.

My biggest concern is that uninformed voters will blame President Biden for something that is a worldwide phenomenon and beyond the ability of any one national leader to fix.

If this were happening under Trump, we would be making things much, much worse by committing unforced policy errors. Thank God the adults are in charge.



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Response to dawg (Reply #20)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:00 PM

23. This is me.

I’m trying to hold on for at least three more years.

And yes, people will look for someone to blame, and that will be Biden. If they were quick to blame him for gas prices…

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Response to AngryOldDem (Reply #23)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:38 PM

31. Four years for us

I just can’t look…….

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Response to dawg (Reply #20)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:35 PM

29. I retired June 2021

I am down 9.5% since Jan 1 and that means my income is down.
I did start collecting SS this month.

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Response to Chuuku Davis (Reply #29)

Wed May 18, 2022, 04:03 PM

37. There are no easy answers for those who are already retired.

All they can do is to keep their spending to a minimum and draw down any cash balances they have rather than selling more bonds and equities at already depressed levels.

I think it's the retired folks who are affected the worst. People with a few years left to work might actually see their balances fully recover.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 02:35 PM

21. It has a long way to fall, Shiller P/E is still at 30

This is a measure of the value of the S&P 500 in terms of stock price against the actual company earnings. The higher the number, the further the stocks are valued in excess of their actual earnings.

Historical average going back 100+ years is around 16. More modern average (past 25 years) is in the low 20s.

Moved most of my 401k to bonds months ago when the Fed started talking about major increases in rates and shrinking their balance sheet

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 02:58 PM

22. -1,213 with about 7 minutes to close.

With every passing day my hope for being able to retire comfortably with some assurance that I won’t end up in the poorhouse gets even more distant.

Usually I don’t get bent out of shape over corrections, but this is beginning to feel like a perfect storm of shit. I’ve got a bad feeling about all this.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:01 PM

24. This is due to retail numbers coming in bad for Walmart and Target.

That might be good news. Should put downward pressure on inflation if people are not buying stuff.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #24)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:15 PM

27. Just the opposite occurred.

U.S. Retail Sales Grew 0.9% in April
Retail spending rose for the fourth straight month as inflation remained high


Americans continued to pump money into the U.S. economy in April, with increased retail spending offering the latest sign consumers are driving demand at stores and manufacturers despite the pinch from high inflation.

Retail sales—a measure of spending at stores, online and in restaurants—rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% last month compared with March, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That marked the fourth straight month of higher retail spending.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-retail-sales-april-2022-11652734620

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Response to former9thward (Reply #27)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:37 PM

30. But with 8.5% inflation,

That means actual item sales volume was down around 7.5%

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Response to Chuuku Davis (Reply #30)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:51 PM

33. No, inflation is measured year over year.

They are released every month but the comparison is what it was a year ago for that month. If sales were measured the same way it would be 10.8% (0,9 x 12)-- quite a bit higher than 8.5%.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #32)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:54 PM

34. No, its not.

While retail spending increased the costs because of inflation hurt companies bottom lines. So their stocks were hurt because their total revenue was down.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #34)

Wed May 18, 2022, 04:05 PM

38. The article said their profits were down due to..

their customers not buying hard goods where they have a higher margin. So sales are down. Right?

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #38)

Wed May 18, 2022, 04:50 PM

41. Not total sales which the government measures and reports.

Retail spending was up in April. One reason profits are down is that inflation is causing consumers to go for lower cost, lower margin items. Another reason is that inflation is increasing the cost of goods and services that companies have to buy.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:07 PM

25. Where have I heard this before?

It's just echoing in my mind.

I have a vague image of a fat, orange humanoid on a stage somewhere declaiming about your 401K.

Can't quite place it.

Sound familiar to anyone else?

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Response to dpibel (Reply #25)

Wed May 18, 2022, 04:18 PM

40. Dump doesn't have to worry about that

He has people carrying that message for him intentionally, or in the case of the OP, unintentionally. Of course, DU is mostly a bubble as far as like minded people so no minds will be swayed to vote GOP because the market is in the tank. Still, I'd be careful bemoaning this in mixed company so as not to amplify what will surely be a GOP talking point later this year.

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Response to BannonsLiver (Reply #40)

Wed May 18, 2022, 06:04 PM

50. It's just a current news story being shared amongst (mostly) like minded folks...

The idea that it's some sort of "RW Talking point" is silly... I mean REALLY silly, laughable.

NO ONE here blames Biden and no one that DOES blame Biden is reading here.

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Response to dpibel (Reply #25)

Wed May 18, 2022, 05:49 PM

46. You can close your eyes or turn off the Nightly News if it upsets you.

It's just the facts. The DOW cratered by nearly 1200 today. Don't believe me, check the WSJ.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:09 PM

26. One error in your post.

Zuckerberg, Musk and Bezos are not losing billions today because they are not selling anything. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday that Buffett is happy with the market going down because he is buying at low prices.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #26)

Wed May 18, 2022, 05:48 PM

45. Just for you, I'll edit...

Because technically you're correct.

The NET WORTH TODAY of Zuckerberg, Bezos and Musk dropped by billions.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:26 PM

28. Things we get better

 

Soon.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 03:56 PM

35. I have been in money market funds.

This sucker needs to keep dropping.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #35)

Wed May 18, 2022, 04:01 PM

36. +1

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)


Response to Name removed (Reply #39)

Wed May 18, 2022, 05:47 PM

44. Anyone with an IQ over 60 knows that a POTUS has little control over such things...

But the buck always stops at the steps to the Oval Office.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 04:57 PM

42. when interest rates rise, stocks go down. and major retailers are hurting from supply chain issues

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Response to Demovictory9 (Reply #42)

Wed May 18, 2022, 05:46 PM

43. There's obviously MORE to it than that.

The Fed Funds Rate today is 1.0%... was 0.50 a month ago.

Will be going up probably every month until it's 3.5-4%

Unless the stock market crashes (more) then Powell has said he may adjust that schedule.

So the real effect of the Fed Fund rate hasn't even been felt.

It's supply chain, it's fuel prices... it's inflation, it's the impending real estate bubble... it's many things without an easy solution.

And ignore the people on the TV who say we're going to miss the recession... we're not. It's coming.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 05:55 PM

47. For those not ready to retire, remember: buy low, sell high.

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Response to nattyice (Reply #47)

Wed May 18, 2022, 06:03 PM

49. But be careful right now... not near a bottom, yet.

If you have cash... sit on it for now.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 06:08 PM

51. Most of the stock market's rise was from QE "hot money".

The Fed’s ultra cheap and easy quantitative easing money.

This tightening is going to wreak havoc in China’s property market as well.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #51)

Wed May 18, 2022, 06:12 PM

52. Yup... 20/21 were ones for the record books re: trading...

For more than a year you could pick basically ANY stock and play it long and win BIG.

I was just placing buys for call options every Monday and by Wednesday the options would be 2-3x in value... worked most every week.

I can only imagine how much money the big guys made.

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Response to WarGamer (Reply #52)

Wed May 18, 2022, 06:23 PM

53. Inflation won't be tamed anytime soon.

It eventually took 21 percent interest rates in 1979-1981 to quell 12 percent inflation, with permanent damage done to our manufacturing economy.

Fast forward to now.

There are still MAJOR supply chain problems influencing demand and we have inflated M1 money supply by at least 50 percent.

Small rate rises won’t kill inflation and the government cannot afford borrowing costs going too high, lest we set off a fiscal crisis.

Inflation is here to stay.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #53)

Wed May 18, 2022, 06:25 PM

54. Agreed. There is NO BETTER TIME to have Democrats in control of the Fed Gov't

With the GOP in charge, it'd be Seniors eating cat food and families living under bridges.

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 06:31 PM

55. What next

Everyday it seems to be something. It's good the democrats are in charge to get us out of this

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Response to WarGamer (Original post)

Wed May 18, 2022, 08:32 PM

58. OTOH great day if your plan is buying SPY tomorrow

If you're not near retirement these dips are good news...

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Response to Recursion (Reply #58)

Thu May 19, 2022, 06:13 PM

59. We don't appear to be at a bottom... I'd wait.

Wait until we can see the effect of increased Fed Fund rates and of the Q3 GDP comes in negative which would be the official "RECESSION" definition.

I haven't touched our long term investments, they'll be fine when we will start drawing from them, in around 8-10 years...

But my daily trading account is 100% cash, I rarely hold a position overnight. It's just too risky. Back in 20/21 I'd be options contracts with an expiration a month out and hold for as long as necessary to hit my profit target. But today... that'd be a disaster.

So I go in and out... 2-3 trades a day.

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Response to WarGamer (Reply #59)

Fri May 20, 2022, 12:54 AM

60. Ah, that's the difference; I don't trade

I have an investment account I never think about that gets 8% of my paycheck and, over the course of the next 20 years, is set to slowly transfer from 100% growth equities to 100% fixed income. Timing the market is a fool's errand, IMO.

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