A 10-point swing to the Democrats post-Dobbs

[kpete]

Congressional generic ballot, Marist

April
Republican 47%
Democratic 44%

June
Democratic 48%
Republican 41%

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=RATo27LZfjkqk8TkCQy3rA
https://www.npr.org/2022/06/27/1107733632/poll-majorities-oppose-supreme-courts-abortion-ruling-and-worry-about-other-righ
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-national-poll-the-overturning-of-roe-v-wade-june-2022/

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Excellent

And build on this now. This is how we take over the states.

Here in MI, we have a strong female governor who's already started running campaign commercials stating that she is the only thing standing between the women of this state and a total ban on abortion. We're also going to have a ballot initiative to protect abortion. This is going to bring tens of millions of Democrats to the polls across the country in the Fall.

Make it clear, a vote for Republicans or not showing up to the polls this November is a vote to doom the women of America to slavery and permanent second class citizenship.

[Demovictory9]

66. Voter registration and keeping this issue on voters mind will be key

[Beachnutt]

2. HELL YES

[Cracklin Charlie]

3. I like to see this.

Even though I hate the reason for it.

[JohnSJ]

4. Massive turnout is the key in large numbers for Democrats. That is the only way to stop

the war against women, workers, civil rights, environmental rights etc.

Inter-party squabbling needs to be put on the sidelines. We have to stand United as we have never done before.

Registrations for voting need to start now, and a massive GOTV effort.

[Claustrum]

26. What I like to see is people from purple or red states will turn on republicans.

They are directly affected by the SCOTUS decision more than people in blue states. They need to put democrats into office up and down in local and state offices to reverse the damage that the republicans are doing.

[llmart]

11. Today's Yahoo front page headlines...

"More than 1 million switch to GOP in warning to Dems"

[llmart]

13. +1

Yes, I didn't see any numbers for new Dems. They need to check back at the end of this week and see how many new Dems registered. But they won't. From what I read, they were registering people at the protests.

I have no doubt that there will be GOP criminality, especially in Florida.

[KS Toronado]

18. Went and read that

But over the last year, roughly two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation shifted
to the Republican Party. In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000
who became Democrats.

The broad migration of more than 1 million voters, a small portion of the overall U.S. electorate, does not
ensure widespread Republican success in the November midterm elections, which will determine control of
Congress and dozens of governorships. Democrats are hoping the Supreme Court's decision on Friday to
overrule Roe v. Wade will energize supporters, particularly in the suburbs, ahead of the midterms.

AP article is about a trend over the past year, not because of SCOTUS. Have never looked at Yahoo news
do they tend to lean R or D or are they middle ground neutral?

[judesedit]

19. I read that a lot of dems switched so they could vote in the thug's primarys

I think there is some merit to that

[KS Toronado]

22. LOL, I was one of them

reQublicOns been using that tactic for years to stack the deck in their favor. My Senator Jerry Moran R
goes to Russia on July 4th, refuses to vote on a lot of issues, he's an under the radar Moscow Mitch.
I'm voting for this gal......

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216852060

[shrike3]

27. Saw that happen locally. GOP knocked out two Dem incumbents.

I saw the breakdown and told Dem officials what happened. They didn't believe me at first. But it was obvious. Heavily Republican neighborhoods voted in the Dem primary. GOP candidates were running unopposed. And it was a very large turnout.

[wryter2000]

30. I spoke to some on one of my calls

If I lived in Wyoming, I’d do it now to vote for Cheney in the primary. I wouldn’t vote for her in November.

[jaxexpat]

21. If given a choice between two views on any given issue

Yahoo tends to create points of view to favor the moneyed contestant. Even at the risk of deliberate misdirection.

[machoneman]

47. Gee ya think they failed to add that 630,000 switched to Democrats by accident? Nawh, no way!

So, net was 370,000 added to R roles, not 1 million.

[bluevoter4life]

52. Alarmist rhetoric sure,

But here in Colorado, Durango "lost" over 3,500 Dem registrations almost overnight, but the reason for the shift is a lot of these "former" Dems changed registration to Republican or Independent for the sole purpose of voting against Lauren Boebert in her primary. Liz Cheney is asking WY Dems to do the same, so I think Yahoo's numbers might be a little misleading.

[llmart]

53. You know that and I know that and other DU'ers have pointed that out on here but...

what bothers me is that we all know there are a hell of a lot of gullible people out there and headlines do have influence over those sorts of people.

[sarcasmo]

57. Yahoo proves itself to be right leaning every day.

[jayschool2013]

75. Media Bias/Fact Check rating

Yahoo leans center-left in its news choices, and it's highly factual in its content.

Link.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

58. I saw that headline.

Looking deeper into the article, it says that an AP study found that 1.7 million voters in areas they studied switched parties.

Of those, 1 million switched from Dem to GOP.
700,000 switched from GOP to Dem.

So the net migration was 300,000 to the GOP.

Very strange way of writing a headline...

[qazplm135]

77. 300K net

and not surprising. We were losing thanks to inflation.

Now, if we can turn Roe into a motivating issue, we can win.

[Demsrule86]

33. Always the doom and gloom...I thought initial poll was pretty good for a midterm. The new one

is outstanding.

[Demsrule86]

71. I am not nasty...your posts do reek of doom and gloom.

Feel free to ignore my posts at any time. Holiday?

[dchill]

34. "...the media can wipe out a 10 point lead in a week..."

"The media" are the reason we don't have at least a 20-point lead all the time. They spend a lot of time casting doubt and misplacing blame. Oh, and the whatabout. The goddamn whatabout.

[Eyeball_Kid]

38. It normally takes about 10 days for polls to reflect a political event nationally.

So subsequent polls will show a better indication of the nation's revulsion over the SC's foolish "legislating from the bench."

[PTWB]

56. 10 is more than I thought we would get.

While a majority of women are outraged by the Dobbs decision, there is a significant minority of women who are thrilled with it. The most fervent pro-lifers I’ve met have all been women. I don’t pretend to understand.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

60. 10 is a seismic change by American political standards.

The last nine presidential elections (from 1988 to now) have been decided by fewer than 10 points, often by far fewer.

[Polybius]

78. You're right

Let's wait a few weeks. If the polls swing back to them by July 20th, we're fucked.

[MyMission]

6. 36 states will elect governors in November

20 R, 16 D seats.

That should help inspire voter turnout during these midterm elections, especially since the Dobbs decision.
I'm encouraged by the numbers you shared.

[machoneman]

48. The worst is fat boy Tate Reeves in MS. He's stupid and ugly too, having the worst record of....

..any state in just about every category. A shithole place ot live in for sure. Yeah, and he's still fugly!

[Polybius]

79. He's not up until 2024

In all honesty, his predecessor Phil Bryant might have been even worse. He called abortion "Black Genocide."

https://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2018/nov/12/governor-calls-abortion-black-genocide-defends-hyd/

[Emile]

7. Great news!

[50 Shades Of Blue]

8. K & R! Gotta get Dems over 50% now!

[Lovie777]

9. Republicans say it took 50 years . . ..

I guess they failed history, duh.

The horrors of this decision will be front and center and many republican women and many non-republican women will suffer and die alongwith many babies. Will they care, I hope so, but alas republicans do vote against their own interest.

[msfiddlestix]

10. thrilled to read a 10 point lead since the decision, but the poll referenced doesn't match up.

I've never been good at math, but I can balance my "checkbook" accurately, and if necessary, using a calculator.

Was another poll intended in this tweet?

[Lonestarblue]

14. Confusing, but Republicans went down by 6, Democrats up by 4.

I’m always more interested in the actual split between the number who favor Democrats over Republicans.

[Yoyoyo77]

20. They are saying it's a 10 point change in preference.

[W_HAMILTON]

69. That's because it is.

It went from people preferring Republicans by 3% to them preferring Democrats by 7%, thus a swing of 10% in total.

[msfiddlestix]

23. Ohhhh... gotcha...thnx. I'm also more interested in the split, that's the important figure.

when focusing on the bottom line.

thanks again

[Claustrum]

28. And I want to see more state/local race pollings.

If we got more support from blue states, it doesn't necessarily get us more congressional seats that we need. Generic polling is a good indication for what the country is feeling but the few swings states are actually the more important polling.

The ones I want to monitor are GA, PA, WI and OH senate seat polling and hope that the same swing will apply to them and getting us those seats.

[Hieronymus Phact]

16. this is depressing in a way...

It means that a full 10% were totally ignorant of what they were about to vote for. Everyone on this board is well aware of what voting republican does, but that 10% was all about "voting against their interests" until they became aware of it.

[Eyeball_Kid]

40. The wholesale impact hasn't reached the nation yet.

Give it a week or more. You'll see the numbers change more dramatically.

[packman]

54. That's the only way to get to those Repuke knuckleheads

When it affects them, it suddenly becomes important to them. I'll take it - anything to get those damn blinders off their eyes.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. Also Post-J6 hearings. Nt

[Claustrum]

24. Nice. Let it continue.

Vote all these republicans out.

[33taw]

25. We need to be relentless hammering our position at both the federal and state levels.

[fightforfreedom]

29. You can't take peoples rights away in America.

That is a sure fire way of waking the American people up.

[we can do it]

31. Let's blow them away, take all their seats.

Shove the hateful control freaks back into to sewer.

[louis-t]

32. Gee, I read an article this morning on Yahoo.

It said "10 million independents just switched to the repug party!"

[Eyeball_Kid]

41. Consider the source. n/t

[samsingh]

37. i'm still confused why our leaders are not blaring out that they will fix the mess the traitorous

repugs are doing to our country.

too many people will still believe that the problem is with government and not specifically with the repugs.

[stratozyck]

42. I worry we rely on polls too much to convince ourselves we will win

First: I hope this is accurate and translates to legislative success in both state and federal legislatures. I am very pessimistic about the next 20 years as my internal belief is that the Baby Boomer generation will take the country out with them, as they are the narcissistic generation and all narcissists are willing to take everyone out with them when they die.

My concern is that a generic poll doesn't tell you about location. Did dems gain support in areas that they already had support? This poll doesn't say.

I think in some Purple districts, turnout will go up for the anti abortion side as well. We do not know the spatial distribution of this impact. That is my concern - that enthusiasm amongst the anti abortion people will be in the right geographical locations to mitigate any electoral fallout.

I see it time and time again, Dems point at some poll result that shows their policy is popular, and go, "ah we will win!"

What the GOP will do is push for a national abortion ban at 20 weeks, and a lot of R women who are temporarily mad at the repeal will end up agreeing with that. In 6 months it will be like it never happened in terms of the political alignment.

Again, I really hope I am wrong, but I think for people to get mad about it they have to start seeing local women arrested for miscarriages. Until then, I do think a lot of suburban women will convince themselves that abortions will still be available and thus end up voting R again.

[llashram]

44. I try only

to rely on the truth. Polls are designed to prove fraudulent theories too many times to be trusted. I trust live people and truth. And in 74 years of living, I have known the truth when I saw it and/or researched the postulation of alleged truth myself. 'The truth will set you free' is known and relevant in these days and times.

[Jon King]

43. We need this in the worst way because many Dems have switched parties.

Just said on the other thread how at least pre-Roe, many long time Dems/swing voters are now staunch Repugs. They are believing the messaging. Our kids play tennis and we talk to a lot of parents, long time liberals are switching. I have been told its crime, inflation, they worry about the trans swimmer leading their girls to play sports vs trans kids, they say their kids friends all want pronouns, they say their white kids are made to feel they are at fault for thei advantage and on and on. The Repug messaging is absolutely crushing it in the suburbs.

Pre-Roe I was thinking we were headed to a historic lose of seats and Pres Desantis in 2024. Lets hope we can get some momentum back.

[meadowlander]

62. Supporting human rights for trans and nonbinary people is not the "nutty 10%"

and even if it were, opposing them or ignoring them to solicit votes from transphobic idiots is still the wrong thing to do.

Let me guess, you also thought marriage equality was going to be the end of Democrats winning elections ever and why can't gay people just wait their turn?

If gas was $2 a gallon and Covid extinguished we wouldn't even be having this conversation. And if people who are actually Democrats turned out and voted in mid-terms it wouldn't matter what your "ignorant suburban neighbours" think about gender identity rights.

[machoneman]

46. I do think we can keep the House and gain lots of State positions, governorships included. But.....

getting a Dem majority in the Senate looks very tough and is critical to smashing the SC's unbridled hate at gun control, anything liberal they don't like and more.

[mopinko]

49. folks, i can guarantee there are gqp hacks takin their coffee w 3 fingers of whiskey today.

i'll be real curious if these number continue to slide for them over the holiday break.
if you havent heard, there's a move to wear black on the 4th. do it. ask any white sox fan how a crowd of people all in black looks on the teevee. and the front page.
i'm hearing a lot of- the 4th is cancelled, i'm turning my flag upside down. i got a feeling those front pages are gonna take a lottttt of tptb to the puke point.
in the stock market, when enough ppl hit their puke point, there's a crash.
let's make it so.

[YoshidaYui]

50. I GUESS THATS GOOD?

[Martin Eden]

55. It's appalling how many STILL support the Trump Party of the Big Lie

Violent insurrection, widespread coup attempt, and current efforts at overturning results aren't enough to make the GQP totally unacceptable?

[Novara]

59. No time to rest

Of course this is predictable right after the announcement. But those numbers won't hold until November. The rage will cool off for a lot of people.

We have to keep the issue in the forefront.

[FBaggins]

61. A little deceptive - The post-Dobbs swing appears to be two points

The April/June comparison is indeed ten points.

But they ran a poll in May as well... and eight of those points occurred there, not post-Dobbs.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202205161257.pdf

This was also a snap 2-day poll run Fri/Sat to try to be the first to press with post-Dobbs results. Larger MOE

[TwilightZone]

76. Excellent point

Unfortunately, it will get almost zero attention. The train already left the station.

[Blue Owl]

63. May this be the GOP death blow we've been waiting patiently for

[tgards79]

64. Slow down, Marist was +5 in May, no other major poll showed a swing like that

Overall the generic ballot did not swing in May after the leak -- only Marist. Wait for a few more polls.

Repeat -- they left out the May Marist, the intervening one. That showed D+5.

[James48]

65. Still below 50%.

Still a very dangerous risk of R’s capturing House and Senate. Too dangerous.

[Hortensis]

67. The pubs must be expecting this. Look for a huge push on some faux scandal.

Or several of them. Maybe they'll finally find parents who are missing some of the children we ate and put them on Fox.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

68. This is a major swing

[budkin]

70. Wow, awesome!

And heartening to see!

[lees1975]

73. Got it there! Now keep it there and expand it!

First of all, people, VOTE! Vote in every election. Question everything. Show up at town hall meetings and candidate forums.

Then, do everything you can do. Everything.

Here's hoping the DNC and the Biden campaign can get together and use the momentum to keep, and expand the majority in both houses.

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2022/05/gifts-for-mid-terms-from-gop-to.html

[jimlup]

74. We have to keep pushing ...

This is good news but there is a long time until November and people's passion now will not be as strong.