Why the pilot shortage is only going to get worse & will last for years (NPR report)

[Native]

Here's my quick summary of the article:

1) To help airlines retain staff during the pandemic so they'd be ready to resume operations as quickly as possible when possible, they were given $54 billion in taxpayer funded relief that was supposed to go to payroll support, but the airlines used that money instead to offer early retirement packages and incentives to leave. Color me surprised.
2) The shortage has been brewing for years, and industry watchdogs have been warning about this for years. The pipeline has been shrinking and will continue to do so.
3) It is expensive to get started in the field. Pilot training costs $80,000 -100,000, and financial aid falls far short, leaving many unable to afford to make up the difference.
4) BLS projects 14,500 pilot openings each year for the next 10 years, and the FAA has only issued an average of 6,500 certificates a year over the last decade (there was only a slight dip in '20 and '21).
5) There is also a shortage of training institutions, and the ones that exist are over subscribed.......

A pilot shortage that's been brewing for years adds to the summer travel chaos

"The problem at airlines is, when you're short on ramp staff, when you're short on ops agents, it just delays flights," Captain Casey Murray, president of the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association, said. "But when you don't have a pilot, they are canceled or delayed for hours as pilots are moved into position to move that airplane."

During the pandemic, thousands of pilots took early retirement packages, and because of disruptions in pilot training programs, there were also fewer people joining the industry.

This exacerbated an existing problem, as the pipeline of new pilots was already too low before the virus hit, according to Faye Malarkey Black, who leads the Regional Airline Association (RAA).

"This is something that we've been warning about for over a decade and certainly the pandemic has made it worse, but I really want to emphasize we've got to get away from the notion that the pilot shortage is just following the pandemic," Black said.

[link:https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1108995925/pilot-shortage-chaos-travel-years|

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

1. Yep

And even if suddenly 20k people signed up to be pilots, it would still be a couple years before they would have an impact. Training takes a long time and I'm not sure accelerating it would be the best course of action considering the safety concerns.

[jimfields33]

10. Just get in touch with the Unvaccinated pilots who were fired and see if they'd come back

taking the vaccine of course. I’m sure some regret their decision and if a few hundred out of the hundreds fired may make a difference. Let’s do this. Easy as making a phone call.

[FakeNoose]

13. I'm not sure how many actually "quit" for anti-vax reasons

It's stated in this article that many of the older fulltime pilots were offered early retirement packages. So the Covid issue was moot for them, they took the money. It might have affected some of the younger pilots, and it's a good bet they left the airlines and quickly found other jobs. Like flying private corporate/private jets, where the money is better and so are the hours.

[jimfields33]

14. Probably right. Just trying to get every angle covered for them.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

2. I'd guess high-speed electric rail that's highly computerized

Won't require a $100,000 education for a conductor to learn to operate. It'd also be a far less stressful job with many wanting to do it, esp. if it's Union.

Just sayin'.

[A HERETIC I AM]

6. I agree. I kind of said the same thing the other day;

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=16828791

Of course that is still a decade(s) long solution if we started right now and went at it full bore.

[KPN]

8. Yup. Will we do it? Not as long as oil controls

everything as it does now here in the US. We are so fucked up in so many ways! Just another example of our bandied exceptionalism.

[jimfields33]

15. Good idea but does help for this summer.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

24. High speed rail unfortunately does seem like a short term solution to the problem.

Here in California I'm among the many who voted for funds to build a high speed rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco starting back in 2008.

To date, it remains a train to nowhere despite the billions spent towards this project.

I'm not sure I'll live to see this line completed. I do wish it were otherwise.

[DFW]

28. If it's anything like in Europe

It's a highly stressful job, and trains are canceled all the time for lack of a driver/engineer. They are all union, and they always seem to strike when it's worst for working folks, though nowhere nearly as often in Germany as in France or Belgium.

No idea what training costs over there--that is one that would have to be answered by any single national railway, as each country has its own.

[brooklynite]

31. No, it'll require $100 Billion to acquire the ROW...

…build the HSR compliant track, power and signals, and acquire the rolling stock.

Plus, of course the 20 years for planning, environmental reviews and construction.

[hlthe2b]

3. Forced retirement is ridiculous. Test the heck out of pilots to ensure they've not lost a step, but

let them continue if they are provably fit. The current age cut-off --without exception-- is a disaster.

[JanMichael]

5. Has little to do with their fitness. They cost more. Corps want cheap labor.

[hlthe2b]

11. No. It's FAA requirement that pilots retire at 65 yo. The corps benefit, certainly, but it is FAA.

[former9thward]

17. I would not want to fly in a plane with a 65+ pilot.

You can test all you want. People in apparent "good health" at that age have heart attacks all the time. Medical tests can't find all the problems.

[hlthe2b]

19. so do 40 year olds. I treat them every damned day.

Do you not realize that is why they have CO-pilots?

[Rebl2]

4. I remember

when Reagan got rid of air traffic controllers for striking I believe. A lot of new hires who now are old enough to retire or should I say have to retire because of their age. Don’t know if this is also part of the problem.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

7. It was Union-Busting not a mass firing, though I'd imagine some quit

over it, mainly it was about disempowering the ATC Union.

[Rebl2]

9. Okay

My husband (didn’t know him then) went to air traffic control school in OK. after that happened because they were so short of air traffic controller’s. He never did become a controller because he didn’t like the pressure of the job.

[mn9driver]

29. Air Traffic controllers are required to retire at 56.

9 years earlier than pilots. And they have a better retirement, too.

[Rebl2]

30. They have

better retirement because it’s a federal job I think. That’s what my husband said. He was hired by a smaller airport in Kansas (KC) area. They paid for his school in Oklahoma and came back to work in KS. He didn’t like it-found it to stressful. Ended up working at the post office in HVAC and finally as electronic technician the last 26 he worked there. He retired 5 years ago.

[TheBlackAdder]

12. I bailed from final training to become a commercial pilot after Regan fired the ATC workers.

.

I always wanted to be a pilot since I was a small kid. It was my dream job and my sister bought me a discovery flight for one of my birthdays as a 13-year-older. SOLD! I was working at a regional airport, for a regional carrier while attending college a flight program. I would at times hang out with the ATC controllers a few times while touring the tower or on the ground outside as they had their smokes. When Regan put the show up to work edict out, I stopped by the tower and one of the managers had a clipboard and was tasked with checking off the names of those who did not show up or were late so they would be immediately fired. That sucked.

I was in college, in an aviation flight and management program, nearly finishing it. Working at the airport exposed me to the life of commercial pilots both for regional and large carriers at my local international airport. It was a very depressing job. Nevertheless, I transferred to another flight college and that's where reality of military recruitment and commercial flying sunk in.

I scored a perfect navigation score and a 95% flight score in a military test that was administered for their ROTC program. Around two dozen of us were called into a special session with an Air Force colonel (who said he was part of the A-10 program) was really trying to recruit navigators under the premise of transferring to a pilot afterwards. As he was giving his talk, he let it slip that two (yes, two) navigators moved to pilots that year. Two, in the entire Air Force. What was worse was that the stint for a navigator was one year longer than a pilot, because nobody wants to be a Goose, everyone training to be a pilot wants to be a Maverick. So, when they find a Goose, they keep them.

Well, then the Q&A session opened, it was all about be a navigator and transfer to a pilot. This way you get in a jet. Well, I asked him to confirm how many people transfer to pilots, and when he said two last year, I retorted, "Only two, in the entire Air Force? What would be our chances?" That pretty much killed the mood there.

Anywho, I was disillusioned by the amount of low-pay and no charge flying pilots had to do to build their hours. Quite a few pilots were divorced multiple times and more than 10% were alcoholics. It was such a depressing life. Eight hours from bottle to throttle was a joke. I would be at the airport pubs with them, and right before the eight hours hit they would say, oops, time to take this party to the hotel room.

In the 70's left-seat pilots were paid six figure incomes and flew 40 hours a month. Double that for the ground time in pre-post flight. Well, now, it's 80 hours a month, same pre-post flight requirements and many flying the DC-Boston corridor are now making less than $70K a year. So not only did their hours double, their pay was cut in half, and that doesn't include the 1970s dollar buying power. Several pilots were purged from airlines to save money, because they go after the higher salaried employees first either during a financial reorg or merger. Job stability is extremely low and the pilots are treated like shit. Benefits are cut to the max. Just realize that maintenance, rent, airport landing fees are relatively fixed costs, fuel is a wildcard. But, labor can always be trimmed.

Commercial airlines had turned the prestige of a pilot in movies like Airport into a higher-paid taxi driver. I can't even say glorified taxi-driver because they aren't respected.

.

[MissB]

18. Somehow my sibling

managed to get trained as a pilot by the Navy. They did ROTC in college and then did their time, generally flying during the first gulf war. I guess one way or another you're paying to be trained, either paying with money or with some really good years of your life.

They never did make the transition to commercial pilot. Had some really crazy bad jobs basically defined as a private pilot for hire or for training (bad gig to have during the post 9/11 years). Eventually scored their current job, which is to fly a very large private plane for a really nice person that has a shit-ton of money. I'm sure my sibling will retire in a few years from that job, but it's been a good one.

[TheBlackAdder]

20. When I was in school, they had a shortage of navigators, not pilots.

[MissB]

21. Yeah, it was right around when top gun came out

So everyone wanted to be maverick, as you said.

[mn9driver]

16. My forced retirement is almost here.

I’m not happy about it since I’ve worked hard and have been very lucky to stay in good physical and cognitive condition. I could certainly keep going at this point. I’m at the top of my career, it took me 34 years to get here, and now I have to leave.

All of the major airlines went through bankruptcy in the mid 2000s. Pensions were lost, pay was slashed, days off disappeared, and many other small things changed for the worse.

The job is not nearly as attractive as when I started. Getting hired at a major used to be considered getting the brass ring. There is no longer any brass ring.

If I were starting out today, I would not choose this career. Airlines are shoveling money to subsidize new pilots, but as the article says, it is too late. The shortage will continue for years.

[Native]

23. Unfortunately, many other professions have also been screwed over.

Basically, we can't count on anything anymore except impermanence. And to protect ourselves we have to adopt the attitude that we can be thrown overboard on a dime. A true shithole country.

[NickB79]

22. Cheap airfare, like cheap gasoline, needs to die to stop climate change

If we want to stand a chance in hell of stopping catastrophic climate change, the idea of conveniently and affordably flying thousands of miles every year for a vacation needs to end.

[mn9driver]

25. When full of people, modern jetliners compare favorably to cars.

An A321 NEO (the most efficient narrow body) gets about 125 seat miles per gallon when it is full of people on a 1000 mile or longer flight.

In comparison, the family car with 4 passengers averaging 25 mpg would get 100 seat miles per gallon on the same trip. In order to compare to the NEO, they would have to average a little better than 30 mpg—or else add a fifth person to their trip.

The great majority of flights are full these days.That makes them reasonably efficient. I may even live long enough to see the first hydrogen powered airliners.

[NickB79]

27. Long distance vacations by ICE vehicles ALSO need to die

It's like China touting their per person carbon impact as being lower than wealthier nations, while also emitting more absolute greenhouse gases than any other nation on the planet. Ultimately, the only thing that matters is how many billions of tons of carbon we're adding to the atmosphere annually.

Nature doesn't give a damn about efficiency. All she cares about is how much extra heat that carbon blanket will hold every year.

And hydrogen? It's going to be produced from natural gas by the same fossil fuel companies that got us into this mess. Hell, the greenhouse gas emissions of blue hydrogen (derived from gas) is WORSE than just burning natural gas itself.

People who tell you that society can prevent catastrophic climate change without serious impacts to your current lifestyle are simply lying to you.

[Hekate]

26. Gosh. Mass transit is infrastructure. Infrastructure needs maintenance. Whoda thunk it?