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Wed Jul 27, 2022, 02:30 AM

Texas was going to turn blue but then Roe vs. Wade was overturned

Last edited Wed Jul 27, 2022, 01:19 PM - Edit history (1)

and all sorts of christo-fascist laws and freedom for AR-15s has happened of late. Is the whole thing to make living in red states so uncomfortable that the liberal voters leave? To keep Liberals from moving there and diluting the MAGA mob? Are they trying to turn purple Georgia red? Is the civil war on universities De Santis is waging meant to turn youth from blue places off studying in Florida? They have already turned off immigration. Unpalatable politics everywhere. What do they care if they are guaranteed 2 Senators from each state.

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Arrow 27 replies Author Time Post
Reply Texas was going to turn blue but then Roe vs. Wade was overturned (Original post)
applegrove Jul 27 OP
brush Jul 27 #1
JI7 Jul 27 #2
applegrove Jul 27 #3
JI7 Jul 27 #4
applegrove Jul 27 #5
lark Jul 27 #13
applegrove Jul 27 #18
lark Jul 28 #26
Lithos Jul 27 #6
LeftInTX Jul 27 #7
Honest Hypocrisy Jul 27 #8
Celerity Jul 27 #9
Cosmocat Jul 27 #11
Elessar Zappa Jul 27 #14
Celerity Jul 27 #15
Elessar Zappa Jul 27 #17
peggysue2 Jul 27 #20
TDale313 Jul 27 #10
Baitball Blogger Jul 27 #12
Initech Jul 27 #16
Ishoutandscream2 Jul 27 #19
ZonkerHarris Jul 27 #21
Ursus Rex Jul 27 #22
Aristus Jul 27 #23
2 Meow Momma Jul 27 #24
txwhitedove Jul 27 #25
William769 Jul 28 #27

Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 02:41 AM

1. All the more reason for Texas to turn blue.

I mean women voters are half of the state and they are not happy that Roe was overturned, and Uvalde sure didn't help the gun-nut caucus.

Both of those things by them selves turned many voters blue who were leaning left or on the fence before.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 02:56 AM

2. This makes no sense . If it was going to turn blue than other than Republicans cheating

why would passing right wing shit make people vote republican instead of democratic ?

No, liberals are NOT leaving the state and in fact there are many cities that are mostly democratic .

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Response to JI7 (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 03:00 AM

3. Democrats would not move there now either.

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Response to applegrove (Reply #3)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 03:09 AM

4. Democrats move there it's cheaper to live there so that's not going to change

They move from places like California which they don't find affordable anymore.

democrats weren't moving there because they thought it was turning blue or anything having to do with politics.

It was for jobs and because it's affordable.

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Response to JI7 (Reply #4)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 03:12 AM

5. And now with no access to abortion or Florida Universities quizzing

people on their political beliefs people are not going to hurry up to move to those places.

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Response to applegrove (Reply #5)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 10:44 AM

13. Why would you say there's no abortion in Fl - it is not true!

Abortion is allowed up to 15 weeks - long enough that almost everyone would know they were pregnant and have time to stop it. Yes, people under 18 require the signature of a parent or other adult and that's abhorent - but it wouldn't stop most and people with dead babies aren't required to carry them until they nearly die. FL is an important abortion asset in the south right now and I pray that continues despite death sentence trying to stop this after the election. He won't touch it until then, too afraid of what regular voters will do to him and his party. After the election, I am afraid for the women in my state as Fl's christofascists would try to overturn the state constitution to take back this right and freedom.

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Response to lark (Reply #13)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 12:34 PM

18. I meant Texas on the abortion issue. De Santiis has been pretty quiet on abortion.

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Response to applegrove (Reply #18)

Thu Jul 28, 2022, 08:42 AM

26. OK, thanks and agree about Death Sentence.

Think he knows he will hurt every R running in this state if he tries to pass a constitutional amendment to end the right to privacy for the women in FL. He will wait and try to do this after the election is my bet.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 03:13 AM

6. I do not follow your logic

What is happening in Texas is more an attempt by the GQP to keep everyone off-balance and hoping confusion keeps things together. There is a lot of $$$ from a small minority of rich people who are salting the political earth at the moment which is poisoning the environment.

TBH, I am more concerned about the efforts to disenfranchise people at the moment which is the real strategy at the moment - the rest is just noise.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 03:52 AM

7. Texas has not passed any laws because they are not in session during 2022

The only law that "passed" was a retroactive abortion law from 1925. It's an old trigger law that automatically went into effect after overturning Roe V Wade

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 04:50 AM

8. Single Party Rule

The state is very much under single party rule, at all levels. The votes are there to turn TX blue, but I can't see the current power structure allowing it to happen.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 04:55 AM

9. No, it is was not that close to turning Blue, that is based off some now out of date projections

For one, the Latino population is drifting more and more to the RW as so many are going fundie evangelical that they are now the fastest growing ethnic group for evangelicals, and these converts are far more conservative and likely to vote Rethug.

For the first time ever, less than half of US Hispanics are now Catholic, the first ever for any large Hispanic population on the planet. Let that sink in.

In 2014, 11% of US evangelicals were Latino. 2 or 3 years ago it was up to 19%. Likely easily over 20% now. Thousands of small evangelical seed churches are being systematically set up by Latinos. The whole thing is being driven by the younger cohorts, not a bunch of ageing Boomers who are deciding to go hardcore con in religion and politics.


The Fastest-Growing Group of American Evangelicals

A new generation of Latino Protestants is poised to transform our religious and political landscapes.

https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/07/latinos-will-determine-future-american-evangelicalism/619551/



In 2007, when Obe and Jacqueline Arellano were in their mid-20s, they moved from the suburbs of Chicago to Aurora, Illinois, with the dream of starting a church. They chose Aurora, a midsize city with about 200,000 residents, mostly because about 40 percent of its population is Latino. Obe, a first-generation Mexican American pastor, told me, “We sensed God wanted us there.” By 2010, the couple had “planted a church,” the Protestant term for starting a brand-new congregation. This summer, the Arellanos moved to Long Beach, California, to pastor at Light & Life Christian Fellowship, which has planted 20 churches in 20 years. Their story is at once singular and representative of national trends: Across the United States, more Latino pastors are founding churches than ever before, a trend that challenges conventional views of evangelicalism and could have massive implications for the future of American politics.

Latinos are leaving the Catholic Church and converting to evangelical Protestantism in increased numbers, and evangelical organizations are putting more energy and resources toward reaching potential Latino congregants. Latinos are the fastest-growing group of evangelicals in the country, and Latino Protestants, in particular, have higher levels of religiosity—meaning they tend to go to church, pray, and read the Bible more often than both Anglo Protestants and Latino Catholics, according to Mark Mulder, a sociology professor at Calvin University and a co-author of Latino Protestants in America. At the same time, a major demographic shift is under way. Arellano, who supports Light & Life’s Spanish-speaking campus, Luz y Vida, told me, “By 2060, the Hispanic population in the United States is expected to grow from 60 million to over 110 million.” None of this is lost on either Latino or Anglo evangelical leadership: They know they need to recruit and train Latino pastors if they’re going to achieve what Arellano describes as “our vision to see that the kingdom of God will go forward and reach more people and get into every nook and cranny of society.”

The stakes of intensified Latino evangelicalism are manifold, and they depend on what kind of evangelicalism prevails across the country. The term evangelical has become synonymous with a voting bloc of Anglo cultural conservatives, but in general theological terms, evangelicals are Christians who believe in the supremacy of the Bible and that they are compelled to spread its gospel. Some Christians who identify with the theological definition fit the political stereotype, but others don’t. That’s true among evangelical Latino leaders too—they have very different interpretations of how the teachings of Jesus Christ call them to act. Every pastor I spoke with told me that they want to see more Latino pastors in leadership positions, and they each had a different take on what new Latino leadership could mean for the future of evangelicalism. When we spoke over the phone, Samuel Rodriguez, the president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference and the pastor of New Season Worship, in Sacramento, California, told me, “We’re not extending our hand out, asking, ‘Can you help us plant churches?’ We’re coming to primarily white denominations and going, ‘You all need our help.’ This is a flipping of the script.”

Although Latino congregations are too diverse to characterize in shorthand, one of the few declarative statements that can be made about Latino Protestants is a fact borne out with numbers: They are likelier than Latino Catholics to vote Republican. The expansion of Latino evangelicalism bucks assumptions that Democrats and progressives will soon have a clear advantage as the white church declines and the Hispanic electorate rises. “Some counterintuitive things that have happened [in our national politics] would make more sense if we better understood the faith communities that exist within Latinx Protestantism,” Mulder told me over the phone, alluding to the differing perspectives Latinos hold on many issues, including immigration, and how more Latinos voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 than in 2016. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, Protestant affiliation correlated more with Hispanic approval of Trump’s job in office than age or gender.

snip

excellent longform article, much more at the top link



There is a link in the article that references the Religious Landscape Study by Pew

in 2014 11% of evangelicals were Latino.



Now, the latest numbers from Pew show it is up to 19% (in less that 7 years)

It is likely over 20% now and growing rapidly, driven by the younger gens,

less than half of Latinos in the US are now Catholic, which is pretty amazing

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/racial-and-ethnic-composition/latino/





also, there is this:




The Newest Texans Are Not Who You Think They Are

The record influx of recent arrivals from all over might be exactly what the state needs. That includes Californians. (And no, they’re not turning Texas blue.)

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/newest-texans-who-are-they/



snip

Whatever their ethnicities, Californians are coming to Texas in much higher numbers than are migrants from any other state. In 2019 about 42 percent of net domestic immigrants came from California. For all the hyperventilating about Californians ruining certain Texas cities, however, the fastest-growing parts of the state owe much of their growth to Texans shuffling around from city to city. In fact, a primary reason Texas is growing so fast is that we tend to stick around as compared to natives of other states, meaning there’s less out-migration to offset the in-migration. About 82 percent of people born in Texas still live here, making it the so-called stickiest state in the country.

Bill Fulton, director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice University, in Houston, points out that “basically all the population growth is in the Texas Triangle,” the relatively tight space defined by the Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, and Austin–San Antonio regions. He recently wrote a book with former San Antonio mayor Henry Cisneros, “and we found that the Texas Triangle favorably compared to virtually all other mega-regions in the U.S., including Southern California and the Northeast Corridor. It is a true economic powerhouse.”

That’s just one of the ways Texas’s population growth is changing the landscape. In the booming cities, Fulton points out, the influx of a young professional class has led to a flowering of high-rise and mid-rise apartment buildings, as well as multiunit home lots. At the same time, suburbs have become more diverse than they were in the days of white flight from urban neighborhoods, in the sixties, in part because today gentrifying city neighborhoods are edging out non-white residents. Rural and small-town Texas, meanwhile, is shrinking. In fact, 142 of the state’s 254 counties are declining in population, some of them precipitously. Schleicher County, between San Angelo and Sonora, lost 29 percent of its population in ten years, the steepest drop in the state.

The diversification of the suburbs could fundamentally alter the political map by changing reliable Republican standbys to perennial toss-ups. Dying small towns carry less electoral weight. Gerrymandering of districts, now pursued as avidly by Republicans as it once was by Democrats, will continue to redraw electoral maps to maintain the current political order. But at some point, likely soon, the old assumptions will simply no longer hold true, and the keys to winning Texas will change.





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Response to Celerity (Reply #9)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 06:54 AM

11. Ugh

Who cares that they hate us w every fiber of their soul, we like their brand of hate religion ...

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Response to Celerity (Reply #9)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 10:49 AM

14. Nonetheless,

in national elections, Texas gets more blue every presidential election cycle. They were closer in 2020 to turning blue than any other election in recent times. The reason for this is that the cities and suburbs are getting bluer every day despite our losing ground among Hispanics. Also we can win back Hispanics. They’re not as ideologically rigid as white Republicans and can be won back with the right economic message.

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Response to Elessar Zappa (Reply #14)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 11:01 AM

15. 2024 will be a good test of that. We have cratered with Latinos/Hispanics.

The Democrats' Hispanic Voter Problem: It's Not As Bad As You Think--It's Worse

https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc

By Ruy Teixeira (Center for American Progress, Brookings Institution, etc)

The Democrats are steadily losing ground with Hispanic voters. The seriousness of this problem tends to be underestimated in Democratic circles for a couple of reasons: (1) they don’t realize how big the shift is; and (2) they don’t realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition. On the latter, consider that most Democrats like to believe that, since a relatively conservative white population is in sharp decline while a presumably liberal nonwhite population keeps growing, the course of social and demographic change should deliver an ever-growing Democratic coalition. It is simply a matter of getting this burgeoning nonwhite population to the polls.

But consider further that, as the Census documents, the biggest single driver of the increased nonwhite population is the growth of the Hispanic population. They are by far the largest group within the Census-designated nonwhite population (19 percent vs. 12 percent for blacks). While their representation among voters considerably lags their representation in the overall population, it is fair to say that voting trends among this group will decisively shape voting trends among nonwhites in the future since their share of voters will continue to increase while black voter share is expected to remain roughly constant.

It therefore follows that, if Hispanic voting trends continue to move steadily against the Democrats, the pro-Democratic effect of nonwhite population growth will be blunted, if not cancelled out entirely, and that very influential Democratic theory of the case falls apart. That could—or should—provoke quite a sea change in Democratic thinking. Turning to the nature and size of recent Hispanic shifts against the Democrats—it’s not as bad as you think, it’s worse. Here are ten points drawn from available data about the views and voting behavior of this population. Read ‘em and weep.

1. In the most recent Wall Street Journal poll, Hispanic voters were split evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 generic Congressional ballot. And in a 2024 hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, these voters favored Biden by only a single point. This is among a voter group that favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by 26 points according to Catalist (two party vote).

snip

much, much more at the link, a tonne of data, this is not just one poll

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Response to Celerity (Reply #15)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 11:06 AM

17. Here in New Mexico,

most Hispanics are still reliable Democrats. I recognize places like Florida and Texas are different but I don’t think all is lost yet. But Democrats have to target them with the correct message. We mistakenly believe that immigration is the number one issue with them and it’s not true.

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Response to Elessar Zappa (Reply #17)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 01:52 PM

20. After reading a number of the political reports . . .

This is exactly the problem. No demographic group can be treated as a monolithic voting block; Hispanic voters are no different. What appeals to one segment is a loser for another. In Florida, for instance, you have Puerto Rican, Latin American, Cuban and Mexican voters, all with distinct backgrounds, expectations and concerns. So, a tailored messaging strategy is important, as well as language appropriate advertising for our candidates.

The Republicans got a jump start on this in Florida; they courted the Hispanic electorate and spent wads of money in the process. Even though they lied their asses off, they got results.

It's something Dems need to learn from and act upon in future races.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 06:27 AM

10. Yes. They've said as much.

Make living in Red States so unbearable for liberals that they move to the blue states, where because of the electoral college their votes are watered down and you end up with entrenched Republican Rule for the foreseeable.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 08:12 AM

12. I'm still waiting for the unintended consequences.

They're overreaching, and something that we can't even see right now, is going to create problems for them. Not sure what that will be. It's a wait and see.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 11:03 AM

16. Texas is what happens when Fox News does all your thinking for you.

Imagine this on a national scale.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 12:49 PM

19. I have said we'd turn blue in 2024

Have been saying that, roughly, the last ten years or so. I don’t think so now, and at age 60, I believe it’s going to take a miracle for that to happen in my lifetime.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 02:38 PM

21. Texas was not about to turn blue. Drop the delusions.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 02:55 PM

22. Waiting for demograhics to change is a losing game.

I've been saying that for years, that the Democratic Party seems sometimes to be just waiting until a district/state/etc turns blue by some force of nature that will displace all the previous Republican/right-leaning voters. That day never comes. Witness the increasingly right-wing voting tendencies of many Hispanic/Latino voters, who many in the party thought would somehow naturally become Democratic voters. Until the Party has something to sell that enough people want, they won't be a majority Party. The Republicans have managed to hold their noses for decades, taking incremental (but cumulative) gains and now they're coming up smelling like roses

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 02:57 PM

23. I think a lot of us were counting on the Hispanic community to turn Texas blue.

I guess we didn't count on their startling lurch to the right.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2022, 03:04 PM

24. If they can run liberals out of purple states, they will have a lock on

the electoral college. They’ll not lose any presidential elections in the foreseeable future. And with gerrymandering, they won’t lose state houses either.

Btw, being from Texas, it wasn’t going to turn blue. It’s not even a purple state.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Thu Jul 28, 2022, 10:02 AM

27. Oy vey.

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