Trump IS running... he MUST run.
Look at the evidence.
1) Trump Media and Technology Group.
Trump is the majority shareholder in DWAC which has a market cap of $1.1B and at one time was over $3B
If Trump announces a run, Truth Social benefits bigly and DWAC's stock price will surge, Trump makes Billions.
If Trump announces no run, the brand takes a yuge hit and loses value.
2) Impending legal action.
If/when the Garland DoJ indicts Trump, it's going to get dragged through the mother of all delays... not a chance for a trial before 1/25
Trump wins in 24, his new AG calls it all a hoax and prosecution is over. And that's before Trump fires all the DoJ'er and FBI'ers his power will allow.
3) Look at the numbers.
a) Trump rec'd the most voted for POTUS in history by anyone NOT named Biden.
b) Trump has a 2:1 lead over any possible Primary challenger.
c) Trump beats Biden and Harris in head to head polling from earlier this month, Harvard CAPS/Harris Polling
4) Trump is a vengeful bastard. He LIVES to get even. At this stage in his life, NOTHING else matters. He ran in 2016 because Obama made jokes about him. Imagine his motivation for 2024.
5) External factors are favorable for Trump. Most expect economic issues through 2023, maybe longer. Inflation may settle in around 4-5% as the "new normal"... Energy will continue to get more expensive and tumultuous. And lastly, international instability including the proxy war in Ukraine, near war in Taiwan, Kosovo and North Korea rattling the cage again.
Oh yeah, Trump's running. Doesn't matter what Biden or Garland do, he's running.
So, like Global warming... time to prepare.
He's beatable, of course... but it's going to take some forward thinking.
= new reply since forum marked as read
What WILL happen, IMO, is that Trump's popularity will continue to fall with the GOP. He can't thrive with indictments, the Dobbs decision, and the J6C revelations. There WILL be indictments because Garland committed himself and the DOJ to investigating and thus, prosecuting-- because Garland ALWAYS falls back on the law and logic.
When indicted, he'll try to mobilize his mob. His civil war will be diminished to skirmishes because the theoretical hordes of activists really don't have the committment to pull on their boots and take the risk of being blown to bits by law enforcement. Posting on RW sites is a lot different than opening fire on a government building. There ARE people who are prone to bloody violence, but they have to have a much stronger motivation than getting irritated that Trump has to show up in Court. After all, it will be on the TV for all of them to watch anyway.
The nation's economic ups and downs also will NOT play a significant role in social/civil unrest because we are now seeing that indicators show an IMPROVED economic outlook, no matter what the popular opinion polls ("Is the country going in the right direction???"
show. (BTW, that "right direction" question is the biggest nothingburger ever. No one really knows what the question means.).
In sum, there just isn't enough vitriol to foment a civil war or a resurgence in Trump's political power. And there isn't enough of a motivation to get immersed in make-believe arguments to keep Trump's fantasy intact. Right wing media gets a lot of air time, but not enough to sell Trump's fascism to yet more people.
One more thing: watch how the Dems create campaign rhetoric against their GOP opponents. This time we're going to see some effective messaging that the GOP simply can't counter. It's because the GOP is a royal mess.
