China economy slowing

[DCBob]

from Bloomberg..

China’s economy probably grew the least in 10 quarters in the last three months of 2011 and may cool further as export demand slumps and officials prolong a campaign against property bubbles.

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose 8.7 percent from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2009, according to the median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The data, and indicators for investment, retail sales and industrial production, are scheduled for release tomorrow in Beijing.

The fourth straight quarterly slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy adds to concerns that global growth is faltering, with the International Monetary Fund warning of near- zero growth in Europe and a “substantial” cut to its global expansion forecast. China’s exports rose the least in two years in December and inflation eased to a 15-month low, bolstering the case for Premier Wen Jiabao to stimulate growth.

“The worst is yet to come and more easing measures will be in the pipeline in coming months,” said Zhang Zhiwei, Hong Kong-based chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc., who previously worked at the IMF. “Increasing downside risks in China will hurt the outlook for other economies especially commodities exporters such as Australia and Brazil.”

more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-15/china-economic-growth-may-slow-to-10-quarter-low-with-worst-yet-to-come-.html

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This was inevitable as China's growth numbers were unsustainable. I suspect they will continue to slow as the market for China's cheap junk shrinks. How this affects the US is hard to say. I suspect big picture/long term its good for us.

[izquierdista]

1. Merely a temporary glitch

Until they figure out how to shorten their product lifetime to catch up with sales. We'll be looking back on these as the good old days, when you could actually get one of two uses out of their crap.

[David__77]

2. 8.7% is pretty good

I imagine that growth will continue, but slow somewhat more in the few years ahead. The only danger is if there's political instability.

The reason that China is able to maintain this growth?



Extended economic production - capital-intensive development. The US is totally consumption-oriented - living for today.

[DCBob]

3. There a number of problems that could derail China's economy besides political.

environmental, heath issues/epidemics, housing bubble, stock bubble, crime, war, etc.