Political expert tells media to stop 'getting played' by Republican polling averages 'flooding the z

[Demovictory9]

https://www.rawstory.com/2022-election-polls-republican/




Two major sources of the political rankings include RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, both of whom average out public polls done for campaigns.


According to Democratic political expert Simon Rosenberg, the polls they're pulling in to generate those averages are leaning more Republican, lending the averages to be skewed more conservative.

"There is a ferocious campaign GOP campaign right now to flood the zone with their polls, game the averages, declare the election is tipping to them," tweeted Rosenberg on Sunday. "No question they could win but the early vote and polling this week DO NOT confirm this trend. Sorry. "

[Silent3]

1. I don't believe (as many here seem to) that you can effectively discourage voters...

...by making them think they're losing in the polls. There's no evidence of such an effect that I've ever seen clearly documented. You often have just as many people complaining (without evidence) that favorable polls also depress voting by making people overconfident, so they don't bother to vote.

However, what does make sense given the Trumpian turn of the Republican party, is trying to game the polls so that, if Republicans lose, they can gin up their base with more bullshit about stolen elections.

[gratuitous]

11. The polls don't have to discourage a huge percentage of voters

As little as 2-3% can change the outcome in any number of elections across the country. It's just another arrow in the anti-democracy quiver.

[Silent3]

12. But is there any concrete evidence that ANY voters are discouraged, and if so...

...if that phenomena isn't just a wash with the voters who supposedly won't vote when they are over-confident of victory?

If bad polls really risk the loss of a few percent of the vote, why on earth would so many donation-soliciting emails use bad polls as a way to inspire donations?

[PortTack]

2. Early voting in GA is way up over '18. And it shows young ppl are coming out

Saw just the opposite in Tx.

Anyone else see any posted numbers about early voting?

Secondly…yes the gqp have flooded cable and internet with their BS poll numbers. Some of the polls have been rightly discredited. I really pay little attention to them, they’ve been so inaccurate.

[Sugarcoated]

6. Saw the opposite of what happened in Georgia, ie: Young voters coming out in Texas?

[Polybius]

10. Young people are not coming out in early voting

Of all who have already voted in CT, GA, KS, MI, NC, PA, only 3.8% are listed as 18-25, and 8.5% are 25-40.

https://rpubs.com/ElectProject/early_vote_2022

Older Georgia voters outpacing younger voters by a large margin, early voting data shows

But despite the issues they differ on, older early voters in Georgia are outpacing the younger voters by a large margin. Officials report 80,839 those between the ages of 18 to 29 have voted early so far. However, 602,975 people 65 years old or older have cast their ballots.

[KS Toronado]

4. Are they doing this so after they lose......

they can claim election fraud...."All the polls showed we'd win, how did the #%*@#% Democrats cheat?"
It's coming, I'll bet on it!

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

5. Exactly. Unfortunately, too many people cannot see the blatant truth

about the thoroughly morally bankrupt GQP.

[SergeStorms]

7. And their lapdog media....

who always seem to gladly assist republicans with tales of "what-about-isms" and allowing them to distribute their lies without challenges.

The media doesn't always accommodate the GQP, but it happens more often than not. Controversy sells, and the media giants are all about sales. Truth doesn't seem to "add shareholder value" like lies and controversy.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

8. Yep. Also, the corporate M$M wants Rs in power for the tax cuts & subsides.

Democracy be damned.

[FBaggins]

9. Very encouraging possibility

Does he say anything about the reporting that the party has dramatically ramped up spending in blue areas that nobody thought would be competitive? Maybe it's a smokescreen?

[ananda]

13. The media is not being played. They are complicit.

nt