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Wed Nov 9, 2022, 01:59 AM

Polls were way off. It didn't take into account ROE THE VOTE

I think people remembered the gopís mercilessly butchering womenís health and reproductive freedoms.. They may not talk about it, but I think they thought about it when they voted.

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Reply Polls were way off. It didn't take into account ROE THE VOTE (Original post)
FlyingPiggy Nov 9 OP
W_HAMILTON Nov 9 #1
uponit7771 Nov 9 #4
JCMach1 Nov 9 #2
uponit7771 Nov 9 #5
BigmanPigman Nov 9 #3
Ocelot II Nov 9 #6
JCMach1 Nov 9 #7
Sympthsical Nov 9 #8

Response to FlyingPiggy (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:01 AM

1. Inflation and crime turned out to be big losers.

Abortion and democracy were the winners of the night.

If Republicans can't win in this environment, it's going to only get worse for them in 2024.

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Response to W_HAMILTON (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:07 AM

4. +1, gas prices are more of a predictor of presidential approval than inflation and MAGA still lost

... big time.

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Response to FlyingPiggy (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:02 AM

2. Polls didn't take into account the new political tribalism...

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:09 AM

5. +1, and that tribalism has less MAGA in it. MAGA will double down

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Response to FlyingPiggy (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:07 AM

3. I knew it would be this way when SCOTUS

pulled their BS this year. Stupid, stupid stupid. The GQP caught the car and didn't know what to do next. When I went to the Pro Choice rallies this year I told everyone that this would turn around and bite the GQP on their flabby, white old man asses. This is why I said to ignore the polls for months. My gut/instinct knew better than any poll paid for by the big $$$ pollsters.

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Response to FlyingPiggy (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:10 AM

6. Sam Alito saved democracy!

Not that he actually meant to...

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Response to FlyingPiggy (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:13 AM

7. Poll aggregates were spammed by RW polling

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Response to FlyingPiggy (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:13 AM

8. Polls were pretty good

I looked at the same polls as everyone else, and my prediction is landing more or less as expected.

I know people are going to cherry pick this or that race as their proof that they were off, but the polls said things would be close.

Things ended up being close.

There was no secret Dobbs wave. It was baked into current polling. The was no Red Wave (and I seriously never saw a justification for anyone to claim one).

My two biggest surprises tonight: Florida being way more Republican than projected and Arizona (so far) seemingly significantly bluer.

(My final prediction was Republican House at 218-225, Democratic Senate at 50-51 with 52 maybe best case. I figured Fetterman and Kelly wins, Georgia run off, no idea about Nevada - been vacillating on that one since I started reading Ralston).

It's kind of going the way I figured it would. And I was definitely in the minority of people here who weren't screaming at the polls all day every day. The numbers were right there, and I've had this sense for a few weeks now.

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