Encouraging Senate comment from Dave Wasserman

[CaptainTruth]

From Cook Political Report, on Twitter this morning:

"After last night's NV mail ballot trend, excellent chance now that Dems will have 50 Senate seats/control in hand heading into the GA runoff."


Having 50 seats BEFORE the runoff means control of the Senate is NOT riding on that one runoff election, which should make it easier for us to win. If Senate control hinges on that runoff you know Rethugs will throw everything they have at it, & they fight dirty.

I hope Dave is right!

[Claustrum]

1. Ralston said similar.

Though, they are being a bit cautious because they don't know how the makeup of the remaining votes are until they can see the real numbers.

[ColinC]

2. Ralston seemed pretty confident that as long as there were enough votes left in Clark

CCM will win. And there are definitely enough votes left!


He seems set to notch another win in his prediction ability!

[Hugh_Lebowski]

3. I think they'll still fight pretty hard for it ... reason? Sinema and Manchin ...

The 51st would still be a pretty important seat.

Maybe not AS hard, but then again ... our side might not either.

Just sayin'

[Johnny2X2X]

4. They used to call races on less than this

We know the outstanding votes are mail in votes that will be about 2-1 for blue.

Before Bush-Gore, the media used to call races based on data like this. It would be the same thing if the Dem was up 15,000 votes and the remaining 100,000 votes to count were same day in person votes from a red county that was breaking 65-35 for the Republican candidate.

They are so cautious, but this race is likely a done deal as a win for Cortez Masto.

And people here need to take a breath, we'll get to 50 Senate seats by the weekend, that is a 90% thing.

[Polybius]

6. About how many are in the mail still?

Does anyone have a guess?

[inthewind21]

15. However

Many were dropped in the mail by 11/08. We'll have an accurate answer to that Saturday 11/12.

[republianmushroom]

5. now that would be nice

[Cosmocat]

7. I mostly agree

They will still pour MANY millions into it and fight hard for it, but just human nature that they will be a bit disincentivized.

Ds, super motivating to not have the gentleman from WV as a king maker.

[Indykatie]

8. Wasserman and Cook in General Are Very "Conservative" With Their Projections

Given Wasserman's very positive (for him) statement CCM will hold on just like Jon Ralston said.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

9. Wasserman was badly off this cycle

His bearish outlook was the main reason I was worried going into Tuesday. And then he was tweeting out about low turnout in FLorida and really seemed convinced of a bloodbath at 11 am on Tuesday.
I haven't really seen any "Whoops! We fucked up" from any of the polling gurus yet either. They just seem to be moving on like none of the stuff they said in the runup exists.

[Sympthsical]

10. Nate Silver always does a review after

What went right, what went wrong, etc.

There's just a lot of outstanding elections still, so they'll probably wait until the dust has settled before getting into it.

I don't think the polls were that bad. I look at the same data as everyone else, and my prediction last week was bang on.

Media commenters and pundits are another story entirely. Everyone's got a narrative. But I thought the data was more or less fine. Some good, some bad as with every cycle. Some surprises (Florida being way more Republican).

But that's every election.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

11. His final ratings were decent.

Of the 399 seats he categorized as Solid/Likely/Lean D or R, 396 look to be correct, and the remaining three are up in the air.

Of the 36 he said were tossups, Dems have won 18, Reps have won 7, and the remaining 11 are too close to call. So maybe a few more of those tossups should have been Lean D, but overall, he was pretty good.

I agree that his tweets on E-Day were premature. He was right in that the Reps did roll in FL and VA-2, but those turned out to be isolated cases.

He actually missed more badly in 2020, when Reps won a number of Lean Ds.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

14. Nate Silver seems to be more of a national election guy

While Wasserman is more granular - he works best on house races.
He did quickly make adjustments on Election night at NBC, and he was the first person I saw saying the Dems could hold the house.. But Cook Political was definitely in the "red deluge" column.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

12. That would be terrific, of course.

I'll still donate to help Warnock, of course. Someone as messed up as Walker should not be in the Senate. (Not that he'd be worse than some others who are already there, but still.) And we need all the cushion we can get in preparation for the next cycle.

[OrlandoDem2]

13. But a 1 seat cushion would actually be even better! We must fight for Warnock!!

Every battle must be won!

[CaptainTruth]

16. Damn right!!!