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Sat Nov 12, 2022, 09:16 AM

New update of current status of outstanding House races from Dave Wasserman

New House math:

Dem called/likely (212), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (6): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #WA03

Dems need to run the table on Toss Ups for 218.

It's possible #CA13 (Modesto) and #WA03 (Vancouver) lean slightly towards Ds at this point, and #CA41 (Riverside County) might lean ever-so-slightly towards Rs.

But #AZ01 (Scottsdale), #AZ06 (Tucson) and #CA22 (Bakersfield) are the toughest to divine at the moment.





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Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 09:29 AM

1. Looks doable but votes need to break our way.

Anyone here have familiarity with any of these districts?

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Response to triron (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 09:49 AM

4. AZ 6??? Ugh...That one looks R to me..There was a discussion last night...

It's not Tucson, it's area surrounding Tucson..

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Response to LeftInTX (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 09:56 AM

5. I was wondering about that one last nght as well

Even though Engel (D) is not so far behind that it's impossible to make up, I was skeptical that the remaining votes would lean her way.

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Response to In It to Win It (Reply #5)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:25 AM

6. I think Wasserman is trying to juggle alot of districts and thought it included Tucson.

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Response to In It to Win It (Reply #5)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:09 AM

11. Agree BUT I didn't think it would be this close



There is Avery strong independent local PAC that started as an anti McSally movement. They could be organizing the eastern suburbs.

The country's largest Move On chapter is in Pima county.

Still possible.

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Response to Claustrum (Original post)


Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 09:36 AM

3. Dem is leading in WA-3

Usually it goes that toss ups all fall in the same direction. It might be a good sign if Dems do flip WA-3 that all the other close elections go to Dems as well.

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Response to Deminpenn (Reply #3)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:51 AM

12. Clark County is where most votes remain to be counted

That's Gluesenkamp Perez' stronghold--she leads there 56% to 44%. Hard to believe the late-counted votes would break against her. Unlikely there are enough votes remaining in the outlying cracker counties to make a difference.

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Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:33 AM

7. Best Definition of Karma? Dems Having a Chance At Holding the House.

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Response to Indykatie (Reply #7)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:00 AM

9. +1,000,000 NANCY! NANCY! NANCY!

OMG what's his face is measuring for curtains already.... lol

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Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:59 AM

8. LIVE UPDATE 10:50AM ET 201 DEM, 23 undecided 211 REPug --- link

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html


Chart on the link is encouraging. 13 of the 23 undecided are leaning toward DEMS.

AND 5 of those leaning Repug are in California.... which has outstanding mail in ballots that still need to be counted.

Even two that have been "called" Repug technically in California are at 71% counted and 56% counted, so they could flip.


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Response to TigressDem (Reply #8)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:03 AM

10. IF CA's MAIL IN BALLOTS are mostly DEM, we'd have 18 of the 23 undecided - 219 FTW

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Response to TigressDem (Reply #10)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:55 AM

13. That's what I'm hoping for!!!

Thank you for brightening my day

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Response to TigressDem (Reply #10)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 12:14 PM

14. I hope so.

In 2018, things trended left with time. In 2020, they did not. Hopefully as they get to provisionals that will particularly make an impact.

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Response to TigressDem (Reply #10)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 12:34 PM

15. Depends on where they are though

Correct?

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Response to Deminpenn (Reply #15)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 12:42 PM

16. Yes, there are places in CA that are just plain old red.

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Response to LeftInTX (Reply #16)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 12:52 PM

17. Meant the outstanding ballots


not the CDs. Sorry for the confusion.

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Response to Deminpenn (Reply #17)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 12:58 PM

18. Some of these districts were red before. I'm not expecting miracles.

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Response to LeftInTX (Reply #16)

Sat Nov 12, 2022, 02:48 PM

19. But, hopefully, the RED votes are already counted.

The MAGAs put so much fear in their sheeple to not vote by Mail In Ballots, that if that is all that is left to count....

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