Nevada is so close

[kansasobama]

Boy:

As per this estimate, CCM may barely win (or miss it). This is from

Link to tweet

/photo/1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhXsS8_UUAEuryx?format=jpg&name=large

[Johnny2X2X]

1. CCM is a 20-1 betting favorite to win

It’s basically a done deal.

[FlyingPiggy]

2. Kornacke thinks that votes will go 2:1 for CM from clarke and reno.

🤞🏼🤞🏼🤞🏼

[texasfiddler]

3. I rely on the experts Ralston and Samuelsen. My paper napkin calcs show she wins by 3-5k FWIW.

It is close, but I feel tons better than I did 24 hours ago.

[JohnSJ]

4. Which is why it is prudent to wait until all the counts are in. We already know the repuke will

will request a recount if they lose

[NameAlreadyTaken]

5. HOW CLOSE IS IT?

- Johnny Carson's audience

[texasfiddler]

6. Ba Dum Ba

[LeftInTX]

7. Ugh!! I need a break

Clark and Washoe are not very blue....

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. They are the bluest counties in the state

Washoe less than Clark, which is very blue.

Not sure where you get your info…

[LeftInTX]

13. The graphic in the OP

It says 52% and 50.3%

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=lxt5R_w1-45f50PyA50IYg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhXsS8_UUAEuryx?format=jpg

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. Regardless, they are the bluest counties in the state

If CCM wins, it will be because of Washoe and Clark counties.

[Raven123]

8. It's too hard to extrapolate same day votes + mail ins counted to mail ins pending

[Claustrum]

9. That chart is based on the estimate of the whole county including same day votes,

which means it kind of underestimate CCM as mail ballots favors democrats. I would say that's the floor for CCM with a lot of room to grow for CCM if she keeps the 2:1 margin that she's been getting.

It will be close, but not as close as the chart number indicates.

[LeftInTX]

14. Thx...A hot mess!!

I'm not too crazy about Ralston for that reason. He seems to have a mish-mash of stuff....

[W_HAMILTON]

20. If you are "not too crazy about Ralston..."

...you might want to just completely ignore all the prognosticators and sit this one out till it's called, because Ralston is the foremost expert on this subject. If you can't bring yourself to trust him, there is no one else you can trust either.

PS - CCM will win. I haven't had a doubt about this since late Election Day (or maybe early the next day) when they reported how many mail-in ballots were left to count vs Laxalt's lead at the time.

[LeftInTX]

21. He's sharing a source that links to an unsafe site, without a lot of explanation

People are complaining that the graphic it isn't reflective of mail voters. (I cannot access the site that the graphic comes from because my computer says it isn't safe and won't allow it) I prefer Wasserman because even when Wasserman's wrong, he's transparent.

ETA: Looks like Ralston fixed the link and now it goes to another site. Will check it out....

[W_HAMILTON]

22. He's not saying it's set in stone...

...he's just saying that it's a reasonable analysis and worth looking at.

As you point out, the mail-in votes (that are the predominant ones outstanding) break in favor of the Democrats at a higher clip than the overall vote, which means that the final total should be even more in CCM's favor than this analysis. Again, it's not a prediction he is endorsing, just saying that it's worth looking at.

[ColinC]

10. Just need one more batch to be reported....

[honest.abe]

11. I don't get it. The numbers in that chart favor CCM.

What’s the concern??

[LeftInTX]

15. By 780 votes

[honest.abe]

16. I don't see that in that chart.

Sorry I’m missing something.

[LeftInTX]

17. Laxalt Net -1,642

Laxalt: 468,437-1,642 = 466,778
CCM: 467,575
CCM - Laxalt = 797

CCM and Laxalt's numbers are from the Nevada SOS

[honest.abe]

18. So CCM wins.

Thanks for explaining.