I think Sinema just made it harder for Arizona Dems to get rid of her

[In It to Win It]

It's different if we could primary her and she wouldn't appear on the general election ballot but she will be on the general election ballot as an indpendent, along with the Democratic nominee and the Republican nominee. She will siphon votes from the Democratic nominee. She will make it easier for the Republican candidate to win. I'm not convinced at this moment that putting up a Democratic nominee is the better move over backing Sinema.

As we all know, sometimes Sinema is impossible. I'll bitch and complain all day long but willing to tolerate it as along we she was a number for us, and as long as she votes with us when it counts like on the COVID relief bill, the deficit reduction/climate change bill, and on judges.

From the couple of articles I've read here on DU and elsewhere, it seems that she will still caucus with us and maintain our 51-seat majority. I'm just "thinking out loud" here but I just feel like trying to vote her out will give the Republican candidate a much better chance of winning. Like TFG is splitting the GOP right now, Sinema could do the same for Arizona Dems in 2024.

[qazplm135]

1. I think it's as likely whatever votes

She takes comes from Republican leaning moderates as Dem.

It's too partisan for this play now. People vote because they want their candidate to win and Dem learners aren't going to think she can win because most on either side aren't voting for her.

[LonePirate]

2. That she did. A Dem cannot win a three candidate race in AZ if she is also in the race.

It does make the seat much easier to flip for Republicans.

[JI7]

7. What percentage of Democrats would vote for her over the democratic candidate ?

[jimfields33]

12. It would only take a point of two.

Arizona elections are close.

[brush]

11. Not necessarily. She'll complicate the race but remember...

Last edited Fri Dec 9, 2022, 11:26 AM - Edit history (1)

she won as a Dem as did Kelly who just got re-elected as a Democrat. What does that tell us? Until she pulled ths bs move AZ had two Dem senators, meaning it's a purple state now.

She's not guaranteed to win. It'll be who gets out their vote best. IMO this traitor move killed her chances for '24. I'll be the Dem or repub candidate.

[LonePirate]

25. The Repub candidate will win 46-48% of the vote at a minimum

If Sinema - being the incumbent with name recognition - siphons off a small percentage of votes from Democrats (or vice versa), the Repub candidate will win.

Republicans are not going to vote en masse for Sinema over a named Republican. Look how many voted for Lake and Masters against Hobbs and Kelly, both far superior choices than Sinema.

Repubs win a three party race for her seat.

[brush]

27. We'll see. Dems won the gov race, the senate race and...

Last edited Fri Dec 9, 2022, 01:49 PM - Edit history (1)

secy of state race. AZ is not a red state anymore. Kari Lake knows that for sure.

[In It to Win It]

37. They ran against bad and batshit crazy candidates

If Republicans learn their lesson about candidate quality, it may be a much tougher road.

Katie Hobbs' race was too close for comfort, and Kari Lake was insane.

[brush]

39. Insane magats are the repub party now.

Kari Lake is prime example. She was so sure she was going to win but Hobbs was the perfect antidote to her. Knew she didn't even have to debate her.

[Liberal In Texas]

3. Yep. I think it was a crafty chess move.

She has her cake and ... you know.

She ended the "Primary Her!" movement.

[Bucky]

14. She was crafty enough to know the primary was hopeless.

But there's no way she wins a three-way re-election contest. The only power she's ever had is being a spoiler. So she's playing true to form.

[Better Days Ahoy]

4. I appreciate your rationale. Let's see how it goes.

Angus King has been an ally and has maintained his independence.

Let's also see how it plays out in her home state and what quality of candidate the other side puts up for 2024. Gallega has a great rep. He could take votes from all except the most hard-core (read: stupid) repukes.

How does AZ handle run-offs?

[atreides1]

5. Okay

The reality is that she will caucus with the Democrats in order to keep her committee seats...not because she's an independent in the same way that Sanders and King are!

How she acts for the next two years will determine whether how easy or difficult it will be to replace her with a Democratic nominee...it's a matter of wait and see!

[Emile]

6. If she runs she will take away more republican voters than Dems!

It would only help the Democratic candidate!

[Liberal In Texas]

8. I'd like to see some serious polling on that. n/t

[Emile]

9. Me too. Because it makes sense!

[FlyingPiggy]

41. I think this as well.

[RAB910]

10. Anyone who supports the Democrats will vote against her

she would be the alternative for Republicans who don't want to vote for a crazy person

[Bucky]

15. Oh my God

You're right, but what a statement!

[uponit7771]

20. RIGHT !! Logically I see the democratic votes staying intact but I'm being told independence outnumb

[bottomofthehill]

13. Mark Kelly, a very strong candidate

Got 51.4 percent of the vote against a very weak candidate. Katie Hobbs got 50.3 percent against a crazy woman. In a three way race, we do not hold this seat. Say hello to Senator Lake.

[RAB910]

23. It's my belief many are voting for the GOP monsters because they have been brainwashed to hate Dems

Give them an alternative that isn't crazy, and the vote is split between the crazy Republican and the independent.

[lindysalsagal]

47. Exactly my initial reaction. AZ is not turning redder, it's purple. She may help us more than hurt.

She may pick up the fringe uninformed voter who just thinks she's n independent woman. Stealth dem.

[brush]

40. We just won the gov, senate and sec'y of state raves.

Arizona is no longer a red state. It's trending purple to blue as most of the votes are in the big counties of Maricopa and Pima, which the Dem candidates all won.

IMO Sinema is toxic to Dem voters, but will siphon off enough repub voters so she and Lake will both lose to the Dem candidate.

[Emile]

16. Would you vote for a Independent who behaves like a Republican over a Democrat?

[comradebillyboy]

18. I would rather have the majority. A Dem isn't going to win

a three way race in Az. She's vastly better than any Republican.

[Emile]

19. You didn't answer my question.

[redstateblues]

21. I have two R Senators-I would trade a Sinema for a Blackburn

any day.

[Emile]

22. Me too, but you failed to answer the question.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

17. Hundreds of millions of dollars from small donors in AZ

and across the country will pour in to support whoever runs against her in the Democratic primary. Democrats in AZ almost universally despise her, as only a traitor can be despised.

She doesn't care one whit about what Democrats in Arizona, and nationally, think, or want.

I suspect that this is just her first move toward becoming a Republican. If she does enough damage to democracy, the United States, and the the Democratic party to become beloved by Republicans between now and Nov. 2024, she'll switch parties and run as a full blown Republican.

[Wounded Bear]

24. Sadly, you're probably right...nt

[David__77]

26. Yeah I think she will de facto be the Democratic candidate.

And the leading Democrats will strongly support her.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

28. Sinema was going to be primaried

Sinema was going to be primaried

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[imanamerican63]

29. Maybe Biden should move her into cabinet level positions?

Just asking if it would work?

[Emile]

30. That would be great if she would take the job.

[imanamerican63]

31. Make it an offer she can't refuse!

You’re right!

[GreenWave]

32. Arizona got the football Cardinals.

Jackie Smith.

The modern day Jack Smith is examining fake electors et alia in Arizona. I will opine later. Only to say we desperately need statehood for DC to stop this from happening.

[grantcart]

33. Your premise is based on the Dems keeping the Senate in trying to

keep the Senate in 2024 which is not likely.

We have to defend several seats in Republican states while all Republican seats are safe.

If we aren't going to be able to keep the Senate majority then we might as well call Sinema's bluff.

I for one am willing to defeat Sinema even if it gives Republican control of the Senate.

[In It to Win It]

34. My premise is not based on keeping the Senate in 2024

I didn't take keeping the Senate in 2024 into account when writing this.

I was focused the 'now', the situation that Arizona Democrats now find themselves in now heading into the 2024 election cycle.

In 2024, we are playing defense. It is very unlikely that we will pickup any seats in 2024, but the goal is to keep what we have or minimize the damage, if possible.

[grantcart]

35. Then your "make it harder for Dems to get rid of her" doesn't

make much sense to me.

In any case she lost virtually all her support in the AZ Democratic party (I believe that her last favorable polling was 18% among Dems).

With Gallego all but announcing a primary challenge she has no future here, and this makes it easier.

[In It to Win It]

36. I said specifically "Arizona Dems"

Sinema got some crossover support from anti-Trump GOP voters in 2018. I thought at the time, and still do, that she won because she got crossover support from the anti-crazy GOP voters along with moderates. I think any Democrat that runs in Arizona needs a slightly more broad support than just Democrats. They need some moderate independents to swing their way. They need a tiny sliver of moderate GOP voters to swing their way in Arizona.

In a race with a regular sane Republican (assuming that Republicans learn from their mistakes), who would that tiny sliver of moderate swingy voters choose? Would they swing to a more liberal Democrat that they're just now getting to know on a statewide level? or a moderate Dem-turned-Indie that they know?

Nobody knows. Since we are playing defense in 2024, which bet does the party in Arizona take? A Democrat-turned-Independent who would probably still vote with us 90% of the time? or a more liberal Democrat in Ruben Gallego? Would Sinema take that tiny 1% or 2% sliver of moderates that could help put Gallego over the top in the general election? You don't know what's the better option until the election is over. These Arizona elections have been pretty close. Based on what Arizona Dems know now, how exactly will they make the decision?

[grantcart]

38. Sinema has virtually no support in the AZ Democratic party

In 2018 I knocked on more doors for Sinema in Tucson than any one else. (And it was hot).

I am a moderate Democrat that supports ethical businesses and wants to use the market incentives, in other words I am in Sinema's "core" demographic.

Also when my PPP got screwed up my Congressman, Ruben Gallego's office did nothing but Sinema's office straightened it out in 3 days.

So on paper I would be counted as prime Sinema territory

I would never vote for Sinema.

She is absolutely despised by a majority of AZ Democrats. I am guessing that there are a lot of her antics that don't get played outside of AZ.

Some of it is trivial like her upstaging Sen elect Mark Kelly's swearing in ceremony. The worst part of her antics is that she gives Republicans cover for their votes.

For example she said that the vote to impeach Trump was a real close call, which, obviously, gives Republicans a good talking point to vote against impeachment.

Based on my involvement in the AZ Democratic party the party is split between those that don't support her strongly and those that despise her (like me) who would prefer Jeff Flake over this narcissistic nut job.

In a 3 way race I doubt she gets 15%.

[joshcryer]

48. Concur.

If she is not in the party anymore the AZ Democrats have it as their duty to run a candidate. Even if it is a losing proposition because of Sinema, it will send a message that DINOs are not welcome in the party.

[ZonkerHarris]

42. Show me a list of all these Democrats who are going to vote for her. Please.

Dems will vote for the real Dem on the ballot.
She will be a true 3rd party candidate and get 10% of the vote tops.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

43. The current voter registration statistics in AZ:

Republican (1,436,852) 34.67%

Independent/Other (1,404,385) 33.89%

Democratic (1,270,544) 30.66%

Source: The Arizona Secretary of State's Office website

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

[ZonkerHarris]

44. You know there really are not any independent voters, right?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/few-americans-who-identify-as-independent-are-actually-independent-thats-really-bad-for-politics/
"The problem is that few independents are actually independent. Roughly 3 in 4 independents still lean toward one of the two major political parties, and studies show that these voters aren’t all that different from the voters in the party they lean toward. Independents who lean toward a party also tend to back that party at almost the same rate as openly partisan voters."

[Just A Box Of Rain]

46. In a three way race, Democrats would be in big trouble in AZ.