Josh Marshall, TPM: The GOP establishment won’t let Newt get the nomination.

[highplainsdem]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/01/quick_thoughts_on_tonights_results.php

Newt Gingrich isn’t going to be the GOP nominee. I’m not saying Romney will be, though I think it’s still very likely. You can never say never in politics. But I think the anchor point for understanding where we are right now is that the institutional GOP, the establishment Republican party, won’t let Newt get the nomination.

Look at these numbers: nationwide Newt Gingrich’s favorability number is 26.5%, unfavorable 58.6%. (see the chart here.)

It would be quite difficult for Newt Gingrich to beat President Obama. The bigger story is that he would likely devastate the congressional Republican party. He’d probably weigh down the GOP up and down the ticket. And that puts the whole thing in much sharper relief for Republican officeholders, committee chairs and money folks.

If I’m right about that, that means they have to and will do virtually everything possible now to crush Gingrich and make Romney the nominee.

[Matariki]

1. Well, unless voting is rigged, how will they control that?

[russspeakeasy]

2. Newt won't make it to the general election.. The established

repucks will squash him like a bug. (as soon as carl gives them the word).

[Amerigo Vespucci]

3. "We can get you with SOUP."

Your question made me think of Bill Murray as the bad guy, telling Robert DeNiro (in the movie "Mad Dog & Glory&quot that he had an unlimited number of ways to kill him, and he wouldn't even see it coming. He says something like "Ever heard of botulism? Food poisoning? We can get you with SOUP."



So I am not familiar with Josh Marshall's track record on predicting these kinds of things, but I do believe that if the GOP decides that Gingrich is not their guy and Romney is, it will be Romney. Don't ask now, just realize that the machine is big enough anc corrupt enough to make it happen.

[edhopper]

5. Where's the sarcasm thingy?

[ProgressiveEconomist]

6. They could trick Newt into

saying something against the casino business.

[BeyondGeography]

4. If you say so, Josh

I can see Newt imploding on his own but it's silly to think the "GOP Establishment" can control the outcome here.

[xfundy]

8. Why not?

They control the voting machines.

[AceWheeler]

7. Depends on the GOP overall objective

I heard a TV commentator today say that there's a possibility that if the GOP establishment thinks there not going to win with anyone currently running for the nomination, they might well settle for Gingrich, as a Barry Goldwater sort of candidiate, one who'll lose but keep the base fired up, as they work to defeat the Obamma and the Dems in Congress until 2016. Don't know if he's right, but it's an interesting thought.

[RBInMaine]

9. It will be a knock-down drag-out between the RePuke establishment and the RePuke grassroots base.

GOTTA LOVE IT.

[mfcorey1]

11. Don't be so sure! nt