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House update- good chance the Senate bill is going to pass
House Republican leaders will assess support within their conference for two options on the Senate's "fiscal cliff" compromise before deciding whether to try to amend the legislation and send it back to the upper chamber, lawmakers and aides said.
The two choices: amend the bill with spending cuts - likely killing it for the 112th Congress - or vote to adopt the Senate measure and send it to President Obama for his signature.
During an evening vote series, members are being whipped on various amendment options. If there is more than a 217-vote majority within the Republican conference for the amended bill, it will be brought to the floor. If a majority cannot be found, the Senate deal will get an up-or-down vote, members said.
While House Republicans broadly oppose the legislation the Senate passed overwhelmingly early Tuesday morning, many of them emerged from their second closed-door meeting of the day believing that, ultimately, the House would approve the measure without amendments."That seems to be the sentiment," conservative Rep. John Fleming (R-La.), an opponent of the bill, told reporters.Inside the meeting, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) told lawmakers "there's risk" in killing the deal by amending it and having it die in the Senate, Fleming said.
“There’s probably enough people here who will vote for it that it’ll probably pass,” said freshman Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho), another staunch opponent of the Senate bill. Labrador said "there's no consensus" on what the details of an amendment should look like, and that – combined with the likelihood that the Senate would simply ignore the amended version – would be enough to sink Boehner's plan.
The two choices: amend the bill with spending cuts - likely killing it for the 112th Congress - or vote to adopt the Senate measure and send it to President Obama for his signature.
During an evening vote series, members are being whipped on various amendment options. If there is more than a 217-vote majority within the Republican conference for the amended bill, it will be brought to the floor. If a majority cannot be found, the Senate deal will get an up-or-down vote, members said.
While House Republicans broadly oppose the legislation the Senate passed overwhelmingly early Tuesday morning, many of them emerged from their second closed-door meeting of the day believing that, ultimately, the House would approve the measure without amendments."That seems to be the sentiment," conservative Rep. John Fleming (R-La.), an opponent of the bill, told reporters.Inside the meeting, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) told lawmakers "there's risk" in killing the deal by amending it and having it die in the Senate, Fleming said.
“There’s probably enough people here who will vote for it that it’ll probably pass,” said freshman Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho), another staunch opponent of the Senate bill. Labrador said "there's no consensus" on what the details of an amendment should look like, and that – combined with the likelihood that the Senate would simply ignore the amended version – would be enough to sink Boehner's plan.
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/275101-senate-fiscal-cliff-deal-in-trouble-in-house
Robert Costa @robertcostaNRO
Members email from floor: spending amendment doesn't have 218. Not likely to pass. Rules getting ready to move on Sen deal as is.
10 replies
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I love writing that year!
If he can't get a majority of Republicans to vote for this bill - and I don't see how he can - and it passes with a majority of Democratic support, he's facing an uprising in his ranks.
If they kick the can down the road by amending the bill - which doesn't appear to be going to happen - then he gets to bear the blame for not being able to control his caucus and pass legislation to repair the fiscal cliff's impact before it's felt.
I'm having a great time watching this all unfold. 
