Congressmen Confirm That Boehner Will Either Resign Speakership Or Be Forced Out

[brooklynite]

CNS News:

I have confirmed with a group of Congressmen that House Speaker John Boehner will not be reelected Speaker tomorrow.

He will either resign or be forced out tomorrow.

Only 17 members are needed to block Speaker Boehner's election tomorrow. A Speaker needs an absolute majority of all votes cast for a specific person.

If no one has a majority, the House is speakerless. I've confirmed these rules with the House Parliamentarian.

This is from the person who appeared on Martin Bashir. Take it for what it's worth.

[RomneyLies]

1. Never understimate the ability of a Teabagger to shoot themself in the foot

They've done it so many times they are now self-foot marksmen.

[PoliticAverse]

2. So 17 members don't vote for Boehner on the first ballot and then Boehner makes

a deal with Democrats and picks up the necessary votes ?...

[RomneyLies]

4. That would be Boehner's last term as a Congressman

but would give him a full term to stick it to the Teabag caucus in his conference.

[brooklynite]

5. Dems would never give him the votes...

...except with a time-consuming "coalition" agreement that gave Pelosi equal power.

[PennsylvaniaMatt]

19. Yes - I suspect the Democratic caucus will be united tomorrow in opposing Boehner...

...to let Cantor become Speaker. Eric Cantor as Speaker in 2013 means the Democrats take back the House in 2014. I have a feeling Representative Pelosi is well aware of this.

[Bandit]

34. Democrats will not take back the House until Democrats take back State Governments

and redistrict in 2020 after the Census.. Republicans gerrymandered the districts in 2010 to make it basically impossible for a democrat to win in many if not most districts in the toss up states..

[BlueStreak]

9. Well, that would certainly change the meaning of the word "leverage"

The speaker has to get a majority of the votes of the ENTIRE house. The normal procedure is that each party nominates their candidate and then it is a strict party line vote. If the teabaggers refuse to go along, then nobody gets a majority.

And that theoretically could lead to this coalition thing you suggested. I find it hard to believe that could happen, but we know this:

1) Boehner is really in the shithouse with the teabaggers

2) The Dems would not support a teabagger (e.g. Cantor) as a compromise

I'm not hearing any other names, so it seems to come down to a question of:

a) Will the teabaggers back down and support Boehner?

b) Would the non-teabaggy Reps support Cantor?

c) Is there any alternative person that could step in and get the GOP consensus?

My guess is a = maybe, b = hell no, c = doubt it.

So if a) doesn't happen, then maybe we could look at a coalition. That would be the best result for Dems and for Congress. Basically the deal would have to be that Boehner no longer follow the Hastert Rule. The Dems would have to have some say in what bills come up for a vote.

And once the teabaggers figure thie out (remember, they are not very bright) they will get behind Boehner because in a coalition, they are locked out altogether.

[PoliticAverse]

10. Unless a candidate comes forward to actually run against Boehner it will probably just be a protest

vote if it actually happens. And on a second ballot they would have to decide whether it will cost them more
to continue than it would to then vote for Boehner. Also if they manage to do the vote by secret ballot it could
make things even more interesting.

[RomneyLies]

14. If it goes past one ballot, it goes AT LEAST three ballots.

The Second ballot will be used to see if they can increase their numbers. If not, they give up on the third.

[BlueStreak]

15. Regardless of the GOP internal politics, I think it is time to ask

Would we be better off with Cantor?

The conventional wisdom on the left is that Boehner is more moderate and pragmatic than Cantor, so we are better off with the devil we know.

In the past 48 hours, I have changed my opinion on that. Boehner is melting down. The "Go f--- yourself" business is just unacceptable. And it was clear for all to see that Obama wasted a month trying to negotiate with Boehner. And what happened? He waled away from a perfectly good deal, did his "plan B trash" and then put his both into a week of absolute chaos. Obama had to go back to the Senate to do the deal from scratch and then force Boehner to pass it unchanged.

Add to that the fact that he isn't bringing up the Sandy Relief bill, even though it should easily pass, and you have to ask how much worse could it be with Cantor?

I see 2 possible outcomes if Cantor is elected:

1) He acts as a hard-liner teabagger. For all practical purposes that is no worse than what we have with Boehner. And this has the advantage of making the face of the teabagging clear to all Americans, making Cantor the "Nancy Pelosi bogeyman" that we run against in 2014.

2) Cantor decides his aspirations are to be a successful speaker for many years. To do that, he would have to be a lot more effective than Boehner. And since he already has cred with the teabaggers, he might actually be able to work with Democrats.

Either way, we are better off with Cantor. I'd say it is time for Dems to bury Boehner. And if Cantor is really ambitious, he will be making private calls to Nancy Pelosi right now to negotiate the terms under which the Dems vote for Cantor.

[HooptieWagon]

13. There's two possible scenerios...

One, Democrats nominate Boner as their speaker candidate, and Dems and Boner's loyalists elect him speaker. This would require some major concessions by Boner to the Dems, or why wouldn't they just let the TP take the GOP down the drain?

Two, Boner and his loyalists vote with Dems for Pelosi. This would require some concessions to Boner and his loyalists by the Dems, but could be more likely. Depends on what has to be given up. As a plus, it would drive a stake into the divide between GOP factions.

[BlueStreak]

16. I can't see the second option.

The "moderates" would be certain to be primaried with "he voted to make the communist Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House!!!!"

I could see the first option being gamed out in the closed-door GOP caucus. And that would provoke the "Oh shit" moment with the teabaggers, remember, they aren't very bright. After they saw how that would play out, they vote for Boehner because that is the only way they have any power.

If there is any way to keep the teabaggers lathered up overnight, we would be much better off with the coalition.

[HooptieWagon]

30. Well, the second scenerio only requires the votes of 17 moderate pukes...

who are against turning over the house (and GOP) to teabagger control. The first scenerio requires almost all of the 200 Dems to vote for Boner. I don't think he has enough bargaining chips for that to occur.

That said, I think Cantor as Speaker would be such a disaster that Dems might take the house in '14. It would be worgh the 2 years of his Speakership for that.

[BlueStreak]

32. Re: Cantor, that's where I am now. How could he be any less helpful than Boehner

and his strident talk would definitely win us a few seats in 2014.

Better yet, let's rally for Bachmann as Speaker.

[Bandit]

35. It is possible that Ryan could step in, after all he was VP candidate....

Republicans seem to think his shit doesn't stink.....even, or should I say especially, Tea Baggers love him...

[BlueStreak]

37. Certainly a possibility. I wouldn't do that if I were Ryan

In the current climate, it is probably a losing proposition. Lyin' Ryan's popularity is low enough. As Speaker, it would eventually drop to about 10%.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

24. I posted about this very thing last night.

Then I deleted it before I was lambasted for even thinking such a thing.

I thought it'd be nice to have a pet Boehner in the house, but can you ever really muzzle one of them to where they're not dangerous?

[ChangeUp106]

3. Good.

Let them pick somebody really far out there so they can implode even more

[NYC Liberal]

6. I wonder if the Dems will exploit this

and find a more reasonable Repub and vote for him/her instead of voting for a Democrat?

If all Democrats voted for that Repub, they'd only need 17 Republicans to join. Could cause a lot of heads to explode.

They did something similar in the Tennessee House in 2009:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=179x4509

[BlueStreak]

20. The 17 that would do that are "Boehner's people"

I couldn't see that, at least not in the early rounds. But if they hit a complete impasse, maybe it is possible. But you cannot beat somebody with nobody. Are there ANY reasonable Republicans that have the stature to pull this off?

[Orangepeel]

7. It is too bad Boehner isn't trustworthy enough for Democrats to work with.

Each new House elects a Speaker by roll call vote when it first convenes. Customarily, the
conference of each major party nominates a candidate whose name is placed in nomination.
Members normally vote for the candidate of their own party conference, but may vote for any
individual, whether nominated or not. To be elected, a candidate must receive an absolute
majority of all the votes cast for individuals. This number may be less than a majority (now 218)
of the full membership of the House, because of vacancies, absentees, or members voting
“present.”

...

If no candidate obtains the requisite majority, the roll call is repeated. On these subsequent
ballots, members may still vote for any individual; no restrictions have ever been imposed, such
as that the lowest candidate on each ballot must drop out, or that no new candidate may enter.
Because of the predominance of the two established national parties throughout the period
examined, only once during that period did the House fail to elect on the first roll call.3 In 1923
(68th Congress), in a closely divided House, both major party nominees initially failed to gain a
majority because of votes cast for other candidates by members from the Progressive Party, or
from the “progressive” wing of the Republican Party. Progressives agreed to vote for the
Republican candidate only on the ninth ballot, after the Republican leadership had agreed to
accept a number of procedural reforms favored by the progressives. Thus the Republican was
ultimately elected, although (as noted earlier) still with less than a majority of the full
membership.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL30857.pdf

[PoliticAverse]

12. Note the number needed is 217 (assuming all members vote) as there are 2 vacant seats in the house.

(433 members total tomorrow, 233 Republicans and 200 Democrats).

[UTUSN]

8. *Who* is this *saying* this?!1 n/t

[Lex]

11. Ron Meyer

according to the by-line of the linked article.

[RomneyLies]

17. Just a note, the Freaks at Freak Repubelick are all giddy over this

I love it when the GOP eats their own.

[PennsylvaniaMatt]

21. That's a great line!!!

I've been saying it all day in my conversations with people about the current implosion of the GOP!

[FresnoDemocrat]

31. But...

...don't just say it. Here!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2974427/posts

Now you, too, can enjoy the crazy!

[Stinky The Clown]

18. The comments at the site in response to this non story are a hoot!

One says they will "chuse" the speaker

Another says the RINOs are a "plag"

[brooklynite]

22. "chuse" is acceptable...

It's Tea Party "constitution" speak...

[loyalkydem]

23. Going to ask again, is it wrong for me to hope he is forced out or resigns

[brooklynite]

25. Depends...do you want anything to be done for the next two years?

Or, do you want a continual political battle that may or may not result in Democratic control in the 2014 election?

There are no easy answers.

[PoliticAverse]

26. No. Who do you think would replace him ? n/t

[PennsylvaniaMatt]

27. The question is whether Cantor would stab Boehner in the back...

According to a Fox article on the subject, Rep. Peter King stated that Boehner and Cantor are not on speaking terms. Based on that, I would say that it is likely if Boehner does't win the Speakership on the first ballot given enough Conservatives abstain from voting.

Something in my gut tells me that Cantor wants the Speakership - and he wants it badly.

[loyalkydem]

29. My money is on Cantor

[Zen Democrat]

28. I don't think Cantor would be elected Speaker. But, I think they'd all vote for Paul Ryan.

[theKed]

33. "Everybody take position...

...I want to see a nice, American circle. Good. Everyone got a gun? Okay on the count of three..."

[cali]

36. ridiculous. for pete's sake, CNS News?????

From the WaPo:

Later today, John Boehner will be reelected Speaker of the House by his colleagues.

That vote will the first piece of good news Boehner has received in weeks. Consider that since mid-December Boehner has: a) watched as his plan to rally the House around extending the Bush tax cuts for all but those earning more than $1 million a year go down in flames, b) been totally cut out of the final fiscal cliff negotiations, and c) been pilloried by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) for delaying a vote on the Hurricane Sandy relief measure.

Boehner then finds himself reelected to the speakership at his own personal low point in the office, a bit of timing that raises a simple yet profound question: Where does he go from here?

We put that very question to a handful of smart Republican strategists — most of whom acknowledged that there is no easy path forward for Boehner now.

<snip>

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/01/03/john-boehners-next-act/

[SidDithers]

38. Unfortunately, I think he was just re-elected...

current roll call has:

Boehner 219
Pelosi 193
Other 14

Sid