PPP, 1/28 -- Romney 40%, Gingrich 32%, Santorum 15%, Paul 9% -- with complete poll data

[highplainsdem]

PPP is doing daily polling now, until the primary Tuesday.

And this is a press release, so I'm copying their conclusion in its entirety. Detailed poll data can also be found at the link below:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_128.pdf

Romney takes back the lead in Florida

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP finds the same thing in its newest Florida poll that all surveys of the
state have found in the last few days: strong movement away from Newt Gingrich and
toward Mitt Romney. Romney now leads with 40% to 32% for Gingrich, 15% for Rick
Santorum, and 9% for Ron Paul. Romney has gained 7 points and Gingrich has dropped
by 6 since our last poll, which was conducted Sunday and Monday.

It's clear that the negative attacks on Gingrich have been the major difference maker over
the last week. His net favorability has declined 13 points from +23 (57/34) to only +10
(50/40) in just five days. Romney has pretty much stayed in place. At the beginning of
the week he was at +31 (61/30) and now he's at +33 (64/31).

Santorum is actually the most well liked candidate among Florida voters with 65% seeing
him favorably to 24% with a negative opinion. In Iowa Santorum's persistently high
favorability ratings were a precursor to his late surge. But as popular as he is, he's only
gone from 13% to 15% support in the last week. It seems unlikely that he'll be able to
break into the top two.

The backbone of Romney's support in Florida is senior citizens. He's getting 50% of
their voters with Gingrich at only 28%. Romney also appears to have a pretty good sized
lead in the bank. Among those who have already voted he's at 45% to 35% for Gingrich.

If you want a clue as to why Romney releasing his tax returns hasn't hurt him one little
bit in Florida consider this: 68% of Republicans in the state have a favorable opinion of
rich people to only 8% with a negative one. Romney's up 47-32 among those who like
rich people. In a GOP primary it's an asset to be rich and successful, not a liability.

“Florida Republicans have been in a zig zag pattern over the last two weeks,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Mitt had a solid lead, then Newt surged into
first place himself, and now it’s gone right back to Mitt with a solid lead.”

PPP surveyed 387 likely Republican primary voters on January 28th. The margin of error
for the survey is +/-5.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or
political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the
New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward
Republican candidates.

Additional notes on this poll from another page on the PPP site:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/romney-up-in-florida.html

-56% of likely voters said they watched Thursday night's debate, and they support Romney 41-35. This is a major departure from what we've found in past polling among debate watchers, who tended to favor Gingrich by large margins. These numbers confirm the conventional wisdom that Thursday night was a rough one for Newt.

-Voters in South Carolina who were most concerned about electability voted for Newt, and our first post-South Carolina Florida poll showed equal numbers of voters seeing Gingrich and Romney as the candidate with the best chance of defeating Barack Obama. Those numbers have shifted in a major way over the last five days with 50% now seeing Romney as most electable to only 23% for Gingrich. Whether it's the attacks on Newt or a slew of polls released this week that showed Romney's competitive in Florida and Gingrich is not, he lost a lot of ground on that front.

-Finally Newt's most publicized proposal of the week is getting panned by Florida voters- only22% support a colony on the Moon while 52% are opposed. Even among Gingrich's own supporters only 34% favor it. I doubt this issue really has much to do with Newt's collapse in Florida but I don't think it's helping him either.

[aaaaaa5a]

1. Good info. PPP is a VERY ACCURATE POLLSTER.

Its going to be Romney all the way on Tuesday.

[Motown_Johnny]

2. +/- 5.0% with an 8.0% spread is still pretty tight

It could be that Newt still pulls this out if we can assume that Romney's supporters are not as enthusiastic as his are.


It doesn't look like weather is going to be a factor though and that might help Mittens. I suppose that can be taken as a sign from God that he want's Newt to lose.

[aaaaaa5a]

3. The only thing that will save Gingrich

is if Santorum drops out or if it looks like he is going to drop out. Beyond that it looks like a Romney 5-10 point win.

[cstanleytech]

4. I dont really care to be honest what the polls show in the end because

(atleast for me) I cannot see myself voting for any of them as their a huge step back because they are embracing the same failed ideas and policies that got our nation into the mess we are only now slowly starting to climb out of.

[JJW]

5. No Winners In This Group, Ever!

[David__77]

6. Romney would be a disaster for the GOP. Obama's people have it all wrong...

Romney would be disastrous ultimately. He would also deflate the populist current that has actually helped the GOP so much in the last couple years. He'd be as loved as much on the right as was Rockefeller, to use a very dated figure as comparison.

[Frances]

7. The main thing that worries me is money

Romney outspent Gingrich by huge margins in Iowa and beat Gingrich there.

Romney and Gingrich spent roughly the same in South Carolina and Gingrich won.

Romney is outspending Gingrich by a large margin in Florida and regained the lead.

I am worried that the people throwing all that money behind Romney now will outspend us Dems by huge margins and the people will vote for Romney over Obama simply because of all the negative ads Romney will run.

I just made a donation to Obama, but I can't give much. A LOT of us little people will have to contribute a little bit each if Obama will have enough to compete.

[Richardo]

8. I think an interesting question would be "Who would be your ideal candidate of ANY Republican?"

....in terms of 'electability'. Because right now they're definitely in shit sandwich territory and they know it.

[book_worm]

9. Gingrich blew it again.

[deacon]

10. Wolf Blitzer's "what's your favorite color?" debate did newt in. n/t

[ThoughtCriminal]

11. Newtonium has a half-life of about 3-weeks

the decay rate is established by the time it takes half the GOP voters to remember why everybody hates that creep.

[think4yourself]

12. Perfect description.

For months, our single-story media has glommed onto the GOP douchebag du jour. Then, after say 10 minutes of the non-media research, they realize that this guy is totally pitiful and embarrassing. Then, it was onto the next hyped empty suit.
Voila! The timeless Clown Car gag which
never fails to amuse.
Now with only 2 creepy clowns left, the angry round one and the semi-tolerable beige colored one, everyone has left for more popcorn and soda.
God bless their little hearts.