Phoenix may not survive climate change

[DonViejo]

The Arizona city is almost entirely air-conditioned, and if our power grids fail, its people will fry

BY WILL DEBUYS

If cities were stocks, you’d want to short Phoenix.

Of course, it’s an easy city to pick on. The nation’s 13th largest metropolitan area (nudging out Detroit) crams 4.3 million people into a low bowl in a hot desert, where horrific heat waves and windstorms visit it regularly. It snuggles next to the nation’s largest nuclear plant and, having exhausted local sources, it depends on an improbable infrastructure to suck water from the distant (and dwindling) Colorado River.

In Phoenix, you don’t ask: What could go wrong? You ask: What couldn’t?

And that’s the point, really. Phoenix’s multiple vulnerabilities, which are plenty daunting taken one by one, have the capacity to magnify one another, like compounding illnesses. In this regard, it’s a quintessentially modern city, a pyramid of complexities requiring large energy inputs to keep the whole apparatus humming. The urban disasters of our time — New Orleans hit by Katrina, New York City swamped by Sandy — may arise from single storms, but the damage they do is the result of a chain reaction of failures — grids going down, levees failing, back-up systems not backing up. As you might expect, academics have come up with a name for such breakdowns: infrastructure failure interdependencies. You wouldn’t want to use it in a poem, but it does catch an emerging theme of our time.

-snip-

http://www.salon.com/2013/03/14/tk_5_partner_5/

[randome]

1. "You wouldn’t want to use it in a poem..."

Nice way to capture the complexity of this. The complexity is why too few people can see what's happening in front of their eyes.

[MineralMan]

2. Las Vegas can't be far behind, either.

Another desert city, completely dependent on electrical power and imported water.

[joeybee12]

5. I don't think we've been draining the underground water the way AZ has, though...

They pretty much have used up that source, which wasn't supposed to be used up to begin with.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

12. When it comes to water the problem isn't the urban areas, but agriculture

Get rid of the asinine water-intensive agriculture that has no business being done in Arizona and cities like Phoenix have more slack than most cities in the Southwest.

[Spider Jerusalem]

20. The problem is urban areas

sorry, but millions of people living in cities in the middle of deserts are a problem.

Especially when some significant percentage of those millions of people want lawns and golf courses.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

56. You can argue for that,

But relative to other urbanized desert areas, Phoenix has more slack than most.

[Spider Jerusalem]

19. Vegas is dependent on the same water source as Phoenix (the Colorado River)

and Lake Mead is projected to run dry, potentially, by 2021.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/topics/water/

[joeybee12]

21. Yeah, but from what I've read, AZ digs underground for the stored water...

and is draining that also...

[Spider Jerusalem]

22. That's a problem all over the West, not just AZ

(see for instance the depletion of the Oglalla Aquifer).

EDIT: And also a problem in Vegas, per USGS: In 1999, Las Vegas, Nevada, was the fastest growing municipal area in the United States. In places, ground-water levels have declined 300 feet since the first flowing artesian well was drilled in 1907. These water-level declines have resulted in as much as 6 feet of subsidence since 1935, as well as having caused springs to dry up and artesian wells to stop flowing (Pavelko and others, 1999).

[Egalitarian Thug]

58. Much less dependant, much smaller, cooler, and with more sustainable resources available.

But still, it is probably beyond the carrying capacity of the region. OTOH, so is LA and it is four times the size of Phoenix and more than ten times the size of Las Vegas.

[Warpy]

3. It can live but people will have to get used to coping with the heat

without air conditioning. The lawn grass and swimming pools will have to go, too.

Phoenix will probably last, but it's going to be one hell of a lot smaller as people who can't stand the heat decamp for higher altitudes or other places completely.

[politicat]

25. The Valley has a severe heat island effect going on, plus rising humidity.

My family moved there when I was 8, in 1984. My father, who was never content to pinch a penny when he could make it writhe in agony, refused to pay for AC, and my mother appears to have the genetic lineage of cat and lizard, and also has Reynaud's syndrome, so she is happiest when temps are never below 85F. My sisters, too like the heat. For some reason, I got all of the far Northern European genes reinforced. (I have minimal melanin, I can roll in snowbanks in my birthday suit, but I can overheat in 50 degree weather, red-haired, light eyes.) The Valley, in 84, was hell to me, but it was manageable.

But in 84, there was less sprawl, less pavement, fewer buildings, more low, flat roofs painted white. Buildings tended to be either masonry block or actual adobe, and were built on the thick wall, small window principle. Several houses in our neighborhood were recessed into the ground a few feet which also helped them stay cool. There were fewer swimming pools and water features, fewer golf courses. Back then, when they said, "but it's a dry heat", it was true. A humid day was 20%. Surface temps got up to 110 during the day, but at night, the desert cooled off, and given appropriate venting and construction methods, houses stayed cool until mid afternoon. When it rained -- which it did, sometimes -- the air cleared and cooled.

Now, average humidity runs about 30-50%, and surface temps can hit 140. All of the pavement soaks up the day-time heat and radiates it back at night. Night temps used to drop into the high 70s or lower; now, high 80s are the best one can hope for. Now, when it rains, the rain is hot -- bathwater warm. And the current construction methods -- 2x4 studding, peaked roofs, ginormous windows -- make it worse.

[Warpy]

49. That's what I use here in NM and only during the hottest part of the

late afternoon. Otherwise, I get by using fans. Hot, dry air isn't bad as long as it's moving.

Washington DC when I was a kid was bad, temperatures that could go over 100 with 90% humidity. Still, the only guy in the area with AC was one who bought half a dozen commercial units after a big warehouse fire, cleaned them up, and managed to get two of them working.

[thelordofhell]

4. My family's been here since before AC..............

You stayed in the shade on the really hot days and stayed hydrated............worst case scenario (Hoover Dam collapsing), it would be like Egypt or Saudi Arabia.........

By the way, that "largest nuclear power plant" is almost entirely used to power California..........

[truebluegreen]

6. I assume the point about the power plant is that (I believe) it's upwind...

What could go wrong?

[thelordofhell]

13. It's not.........However.....

Any nuclear power plant is a danger.........how about those ones in California quake country.........

[truebluegreen]

18. True, they are all a danger,

and where do they get the water to cool the one near Phoenix? Nobody could predict there would ever be a water shortage in that area...

P.S thanks for the info

[CreekDog]

11. Before A/C, it was far cooler in Phoenix than it is now.

Last edited Thu Mar 14, 2013, 06:06 PM - Edit history (1)

look at the 30 year averages and how they've increased:

PHOENIX AP (30 year average temperatures (normals))
-----------JAN JUL
1981-2010 45.6 67.4 / 83.3 106.2
1971-2000 43.8 66.8 / 82.2 105.9
1961-1990 41.1 66 / 81 105.8
1951-1980 39.3 65.2 / 79.5 105.0
1941-1970 38 64.7 / 77.6 104.7
1931-1960 38.7 65.5 / 76.6 105

fixed 1951-80 data

[thelordofhell]

15. Hey.......I'm with the OP.......people need to stop moving here

But I'll take a blackout for 5 days in 110 degrees over a blackout for 5 days in -20 any day of the week..........The AC in my house crashed for 4 days in 113 degree heat and I had no problems........just opened all the doors and windows lived hot for a few

The real problem with Arizona (as well as California, Nevada, Utah, Denver, New Mexico, Texas) is the water infrastructure. Believe it or not, there is not an exhaustion of the groundwater here.......but it will happen if the population keeps increasing like it has been for the last few decades.........

[politicat]

27. I have done both -- 4 day blackout in Yuma in 86, 5 day in Colorado in 2003.

I'll take the cold. When we lost power in Yuma, we lost the water, too, because the water tower didn't have sufficient generating capacity to keep the pressure. With water, it's possible to handle the heat; without water, it almost wasn't.

Yes, losing the power sucked when it was 4 degrees (or whatever it was) but the water and the gas survived.

You can always add clothing, put a canopy over the bed, snuggle, put on a hat. When you're wrapped in a wet sheet, in the shade, drinking two or three gallons a day and still hot...

[CreekDog]

28. if the energy doesn't exist to run your A/C, how is water going to even get to you?

you realize that water requires the same energy that powers your a/c and your lights.

if you have a power outage for 5 days, you or at least some people will not have water for that time period either.

[thelordofhell]

42. That is the same for any municipality.............

Don't let it fool you that if you don't live in a desert, you wouldn't have the same problem........When the power goes, your water goes........unless you have a bucket well on your property........or, like me, you harvest rainwater

[CreekDog]

47. how does one harvest rainwater where it doesn't rain for 6 months per year?

which is normal where I live.

[thelordofhell]

48. Very easily

You just need the right storage container so you don't lose the water to evaporation.........

[CreekDog]

53. I dont have a place for a container big enough to last 6 months

How many gallons would that be? 6 months with NO rain, 2 months with very little.

[JDPriestly]

29. Same for Los Angeles. People need to stop moving here.

Los Angeles is also, to a great extent, desert. The ocean cools us a little compared to Phoenix, but we are in a desert.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

40. If LA were to lose its external water and power connections, it would be hell on earth

If the environmentalists ever win in terms of the Delta and the Owens Valley, LA will be a dust bowl

[CreekDog]

44. Los Angeles is not a desert in fact

[Tabasco_Dave]

57. Sooner or latter they will have to build desalinization plants

and people will have to give up their green lawns. Unfortunately LA is the entertainment capital of the world so people will keep moving in. I moved out 18 years ago because of the population boom.

[JDPriestly]

60. Green lawns are getting rarer and rarer already.

I don't hear much about people trying to get desalinization going. We are going to need it, and as the icebergs melt, it seems to me logical that we will have lots of salt water.

[Auntie Bush]

51. I wonder if this is the land Perkins bought? nt

[former9thward]

32. Appears the hottest was 1951-1980.

Down significantly from then. Another problem with the temperature readings is that they moved the official temperature sensor to Sky Harbor Airport which is nothing but a mass of heat absorbing concrete.

[CreekDog]

37. that was Gila Bend data, I mistranscribed it

The Phoenix trend is clear and the trend has been consistently warmer over several decades now.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

7. I'm glad I got out.

but I have loved ones that are still there

[FSogol]

8. That region will run out of water long before they fry.

[hunter]

9. A lot of people ought to be thinking about how they treat immigrants...

... as it seems likely they will be the immigrants someday.

[marions ghost]

10. Phoenix could get real smart and lead the way in solar

but last time I was there they were still watering the sidewalks. Seemed very "old ways" there. Probably has entrenched Rethuglicon leaders.

[Lionessa]

14. +1, when I gave Phoenix a six month chance on my journey

to find where to settle, I noticed the same thing. Sunshine galore and nary a solar panel in sight. Boggles the mind.

[enlightenment]

36. Maybe on the roofs?

Or perhaps in larger grids?

It's certainly somewhere, since the state ranks second in the nation for solar.

http://www.kpho.com/story/21644129/report-az-ranks-2nd-nationally-in-solar-power-installation

[Blanks]

17. It is ideally suited for concentrated solar power.

I had read somewhere that they were installing a huge grid in Arizona a few years ago.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solana_Generating_Station

[librechik]

16. Hook this up and not only Phoenix but everybody else will be fine.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022506215


No I guess not, it's better for the oil cartels to let people fry.

[marions ghost]

23. I like this (from your link)

" If these systems were distributed to the
50 states, the land required from each
state would be an area of about 17 by 17 miles.
This area is available now from parking lots,
rooftops, and vacant land.

In fact, 90% of America’s current electricity needs
could be supplied with solar electric systems built on
the estimated 5 million acres of abandoned
industrial sites in our nation’s cities."

[Spider Jerusalem]

24. because solar power generation eliminates the problem of water in the desert...

how, exactly?

And it's not oil so much as coal that's a problem as a CO2 generator; electricity generation accounts for more carbon dioxide than transport. And the USA, while a notable emitter of greenhouse gases, is not the largest anymore; that would be China. Where they have pollution like this from coal smoke and diesel:

[librechik]

30. one use of solar power is solar water condensers

put organic matter in, distilled H2O comes out. I'm pretty sure AZ has as much wet organic waste as it does people and places to put solar generators.

My point is that with existing technology and R&D, we could solve are lessen some of these problems. No need to give up yet.

[Spider Jerusalem]

33. Better solution: people shouldn't live in the desert.

The current population of the American southwest is unsustainable given the available water supply, as are current agricultural practices. Climate change to some extent is unavoidable and will only exacerbate the problem. The only viable solution in the long term is going to be large-scale resettlement (which is going to put strain on resources and infrastructure elsewhere, which is another problem).

[librechik]

35. maybe, but people have always lived in the desert

and managed to survive anyway.

It was a mistake to build an artificial megacity in the desert. I'll give you that.

[Spider Jerusalem]

41. Not that many people

human settlement will no doubt survive, but I would be very much surprised if there were four million people in the Phoenix metro area in 50 years' time.

[Cha]

26. I lived in Phoenix in the

60s. It was so NICE!

Snapshot: Arizona's Populations, 1960 and 2006

Metro and State Population in 1960 and 2006

Metro Phoenix

1960: 663,510
2006: 4,039,182

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/in-the-know/snapshot-arizonas-populations-1960-and-2006

[marybourg]

31. Sounds to me like it was written by the Miami Beach

Chamber of Commerce. Phoenix metro is actually the 5th largest, but "horrific heat waves and windstorms" ? C'mon. Our heat isn't waves; it's our regular 5-month-long summer weather. And windstorms? Big deal. We wash the car.

[Coyotl]

34. Watch what happens when solar panels become inexpensive! Winters are glorious NOW!

The article is a lot of crap.

[SCVDem]

38. The Valley of the Sun

Is this point over the head of everyone?

Every house must have solar panels and the desert must have solar farms.

Now we can discuss the power shortfall.

North Los Angeles county gets the sustained 105 degree temps. It is a desert despite outward appearances of green grass and golf courses. I liked Sedona. Lawns may be illegal as I saw wonderful xeroscaping with rocks and native vegetation.

[grantcart]

39. Bangkok will go first

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2084358,00.html

Large parts of Bengladesh will disappear:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_Bangladesh


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_lq06uxaLAxE/SUGBMRxP8AI/AAAAAAAABa0/uyjfRmIcwcQ/s400/bangladesh+climate+change+2.jpg

[Clouseau2]

50. Sounds like they need to start building these

Eole Wind Turbine

Wind turbines could also provide drinking water in humid climates following a breakthrough by a French engineering firm.
Eole Water modified your typical electricity-generating turbines to allow them to distill drinking water out of the air in a bid to help developing countries solve their water needs.

A prototype in Abu Dhabi already creates 62 litres of water an hour, and Eole hopes to sell turbines generating a thousand litres a day later this year.

[intheflow]

54. That's pretty cool.

Two if those could provide water to my town. I wish I had an extra $1.2M to donate to the project. Though my podunk conservative town council would probably deny the windmills land because of their deep and abiding fear of anything that might help our community.

[SidDithers]

52. Interesting article. Thanks for posting...nt

Sid

[eppur_se_muova]

55. News flash -- the phoenix is a *mythical* bird.

Oh, wait ... never mind.

[LeftyMom]

59. Having been to Phoenix, I think I'll go idle my car for an hour to contribute to the cause.