What if North Korea does attack?
Personally, I don't think they will. I think Kim Jong-Un is just wanting attention and trying to keep his generals happy by presenting an image of a fire-breathing leader. But there is always the possibility of a miscalculation. The new president of South Korea has promised to not let the North get away with shelling the South or with sinking any ships. Or Un, even though educated in Switzerland, may start to believe his own BS. So what if they do attack?
The NK Air Force is pathetic. The airplanes include planes left over from the first Korean war (About 200), and Vietnam era planes (About 150), and a small handful of modern fighters (About 150). Their bombers were designed in 1948. The pilots get very little training as they don't have the money for fuel and maintenance on the planes.
The SK Air Force get lots of training and stays on alert to respond instantly to an NK attack, much like the USAF did during the Cold War. They have 178 4th generation fighters, and 212 3rd generation fighters.
Added to the mix would be the U.S. Air Force and whatever U.S. Naval carriers happen to be in the area at the time.
The NK Navy consists some worn out Russian diesel-electric subs and some coastal patrol craft. Easy picking for the modern SK Navy.
So the NK Air Force and Navy would be quickly eliminated. The problem is their Army. They have a huge army that has been forward deployed for many years. They can attack with absolutely no warning as they don't have to move into attack positions. They have enough fuel to sustain operations for about 100 days. However, the USAF has become extremely good at interdicting supply lines, so their operation forces should be out of gas in a few days.
The USAF, a few years ago, develop a new small diameter bomb of only 265 lbs that has pop-out wings that enable it to glide to its target. When dropped from high altitude with a favorable wind it can glide up to 50 miles to hit its target with GPS precision. So the launching aircraft does not have to come within range of the air defense missile batteries. And with bombs that are that light, on plane can carry a lot of them.
Seoul is within artillery range of NK, which has hundreds of artillery pieces in range of Seoul. However, they are mostly old WWII type pieces that are not quickly mobile. Satellite recon likely already has them targeted. In any case, as soon as one fires, precision radar will know the exact location from the back path of the shell that it fired. SK artillery would be able to send a GPS guided shell to the firing gun before its shell impacted in SK. But since they have hundreds of guns, it would take awhile to knock them all out - maybe an hour or two. During that time Seoul would get pounded by artillery. Figure lots of damage to Seoul.
The NK Army is large and would likely be able to punch through the DMZ. Standard military doctrine is to never try to stop a major enemy thrust at a front line but to give and envelope them as they push through, bringing in reserves to squeeze the enemy, while air power attrits their forces. So it would become a race between how fast the NK could push and how fast we could envelope them. Our forces would be hampered by floods of refugees clogging the roads.
The NK army is huge, but has the problem of obsolete equipment and poorly trained forces. As usual, it takes money to train troops to a high level of proficiency, and that is something that NK doesn't have.
The SK army has modern equipment and well trained troops, but will be outnumbered.
My prediction would be initial success for the NK due to them being able to choose the time and thus being able to surprise SK. SK does exercises that plan on being surprised and have to fight outnumbered. So NK Army will penetrate about thirty to fifty miles and then will get destroyed. Meanwhile, bombing will tear NK bases and supply routes apart in NK. It may even be enough to cause the collapse of NK.
China would not be happy about that, but they would stay out of it this time.
Does anybody see it differently?
= new reply since forum marked as read
Grand Duchess Gloriana (played by Peter Sellers): How did the war go?
Tulley Bascombe (played by Peter Sellers): Well, this is a bit of a surprise. A pleasant one, I hope. I think we've won.
Prime Minster Count Rupert Mountjoy (played by Peter Sellerss): You think you've *what*? My idea was sound. Only an idiot could have won this war, and he did.
Here's the trivia Quiz: Name another spectacular movie staring Peter Sellers, Peter Sellers, and Peter Sellers.
Dr. Strangelove, of course.
He played:
1. Group Captain Lionel Mandrake
2. President Muffley (sp?)
3. Dr. Strangelove himself!
Brilliant and hilarious film, probably Kubric's best.
I assume that will be a short contest. 
WOLVERINES! 
