Okay folks...here's what the Court is going to do

[brooklynite]

1) they're going to punt on Prop 8, leaving the Federal District Court ruling in place (outlawing the ban), and the State Government will again recognize same-sex marriage.

2) they're going to overturn DOMA as discriminatory and not a Federal issue, but -will not- recognize a uniform constitutional right to marry. The Congress will not be able to pass a new DOMA law, nor will they be able to pass a law recognizing the right of same-sex couples to receive Federal benefits. The Obama Administration will then use Executive Orders as necessary to provide such Federal Benefits through the Executive Branch.

3) With DOMA, (and thus no Federal "right" to not recognize another State's married couples) off the books, new lawsuits will be filed challenging State-level bans under the Full Faith & Credit Clause of the Constitution, and we'll be back before the Supreme Court within 2 years.

You read it here first...

[joeybee12]

1. You're right...knr

[librechik]

2. i concur

because real democratic change for the better is beyond our reach since the coup--and will stay that way until we recognize it and do something about it.

[hrmjustin]

3. I agree that is the most likely outcome.

I wish they would make it the law in all 50 states.

[Skinner]

4. I think you are correct.

I would add one thing:

In the wake of their decision to punt on Prop 8, we will see a number of court cases working their way through the system challenging other state bans against gay marriage, with the hope that the Court will recognize a constitutional right to marriage equality. SCOTUS will decline to accept these cases for a while, as they wait for public opinion to move farther in favor of same-sex marriage. Once SCOTUS feels that public opinion has moved far enough so that it is "safe" for them to recognize a constitutional right to same-sex marriage (within 5 years) they will accept one of these cases and issue their decision.

They may not recognize affirmatively that there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage at this point, which would be disappointing. But it would not be a complete disaster; a complete disaster would be if they issued a decision that THERE IS NO constitutional right to same-sex marriage. I do not think that is going to happen.

[brooklynite]

6. Not sure about that...

...the basis of the Prop 8 case was denial of a right previously granted, not the inherent right itself.

[Blue Owl]

5. The wheels of justice are bald and spinning

I'm talking mainly about Scalia's...

[MineralMan]

7. I think there's a good chance you're right.

We'll see.

[wryter2000]

8. I think you're right

I think they'll overturn DOMA and Prop H8 on narrow grounds. The real progress will come from more and more states instituting marriage equality and forcing the other states to recognize marriages made in the equality states.

[ruggerson]

9. I think you pretty much nailed it

The Warren court they ain't.