Sanford vs Colbert-Busch- TOSS UP
Sanford vs. Colbert Busch: A Very “Special” Election
A former Republican governor of a deeply Republican state is running for a deeply Republican U.S. House seat, but he is best known for claiming to be walking the Appalachian Trail while he was actually visiting his mistress in Argentina, and he has a court date two days after next Tuesday’s special election because he allegedly trespassed on his ex-wife’s property. His Democratic opponent has never run for office and would be totally unknown, except that her brother is one of the nation’s most popular comedians.
They aren’t called special elections for nothing.
The circumstances in the race for South Carolina’s 1st District between ex-Gov. Mark Sanford (R) and Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D), sister of comedian Stephen Colbert, are so odd that the result, no matter what it is, won’t have much predictive value for next year’s midterm. What future race will look like this? But that’s just the thing with special elections: They are all unique in some way, because they are generally not waged on regular election days, they generally have poor turnout, and they come about because the previous occupant of the office either died in office or resigned, oftentimes under duress. No wonder why the Crystal Ball’s Alan Abramowitz has found that “the results of special congressional elections do not accurately predict the results of the subsequent general election.”
Kooky circumstances are common in specials, and they can help create strange upsets. Nearly two years ago, the national political world was transfixed on another special election, this time in Western New York’s 26th District, where Rep. Chris Lee (R) resigned after the married man was found flirting on the internet. The district had gone 52%-46% for John McCain in the 2008 presidential race, yet Kathy Hochul (D) was able to win a three-way race, and her messaging on Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R) budget plan was largely credited as the reason. In hindsight, the Ryan budget probably wasn’t as big of a factor as Hochul’s personal political abilities, combined with the incompetence of Republican nominee Jane Corwin and the disruption from self-described “Tea Party” nominee Jack Davis, whose presence on the ballot — despite not being all that “Tea Party” at all because of his economic protectionism and pro-choice abortion views — might have made the difference in the race.
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Much more: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/sanford-vs-colbert-busch-a-very-special-election/
For all of my snark, I have been holding my breath about this election from the beginning. It is a heavily Republican district and overcoming that is a tremendous challenge.
Yes, Mark Sanford is an idiot. However, there are those who buy his forgiveness bullshit. His core supporters are the Tea Pissers and their true number in that district is unknown. He has had Freedom Works crawling around for him.
The RINOs are giving him there tepid approval at the last minute. They are coming together in some noxious form to support him. I have one source who tells me the word is going out to their supporters not to vote. They would rather give up that seat for 2 years and dump Sanford than have him and his rolling hot mess around.
Colbert-Busch is in this for 2 reasons. Mark Sanford is a beady-eyed fool is the first. The second is her own narrative. She has not run for office before but her extended family has deep roots in that area. She also has worked in the business community for years and has gotten support from them.
Stephen Colbert has not been a huge factor except for helping her raise money. I was scared he could be a drag on her as an 'outsider.'
There are nasty tricks going on and plenty of time for more. There is an abortion push poll being used to call people that insinuates she has had an abortion. Lawd knows what Valdemort and his minions are brewing up in their slimey holes.
The joker in the deck is our voting machines type. They are the worst and can probably be hinked with in any number of ways. Whether anybody wants to use them for this kerfuffle is anyone's guess.
Polls in the media have this race tied with a fair number of undecideds. Private polls from both sides show the same thing. This begs the question of whether South Carolinians will tell anybody what they really think.
I have NO idea what will happen. Maybe I'll go consult that inscrutable oracle Alvin Green.
What a short, very strange trip this has been.
= new reply since forum marked as read
John F. Kennedy and James W. Colbert, Jr., M.D. 1960.
