Please remember us in the PNW when the 9.5 Richter Mega-quake hits.

[ErikJ]

Last edited Thu May 23, 2013, 02:55 AM - Edit history (1)

Vancouver BC, Seattle, Portland to Eugene OR and the whole coast. It could be the next minute or 50 years. It will be the US' biggest disaster in history by far.
3 things to prepare:
1. EQ proof your house foundation with anchor straps
2. Have emergency survival kit
3. Think about getting a small travel trailer with survival kit and well stocked with cans of food and water.

http://www.ready.gov/are-you-ready-guide

http://www.ready.gov/earthquakes

[olddots]

1. I'm waiting for the Yellow Stone Park volcano

hopefully it will coincide with the big quake so Wolf Blitzer can call the shots .

[ErikJ]

3. Yellowstone is 600,000 year cycle vs 300 years for PNW mega-quakes.

Both are supposedly due so you may be right. Call Wolf.

[jeff47]

116. It's a little hard to call 2 eruptions a "cycle".

If I remember correctly, it has only erupted twice.

[ErikJ]

117. Near-clockwork every 600,000 yrs.

When will it next erupt?

Scientist have discovered that the ground in Yellowstone if 74cm higher than in was in 1923 - indicating a massive swelling underneath the park. The reservoir is filling with magma at an alarming rate. The volcano erupts with a near-clockwork cycle of every 600,000 years. The last eruption was more than 640,000 years ago - we are overdue for annihilation.

What would be the effect of an eruption?
Immediately before the eruption, there would be large earthquakes in the Yellowstone region. The ground would swell further with most of Yellowstone being uplifted. One earthquake would finally break the layer of rock that holds the magma in - and all the pressure the Earth can build up in 640,000 years would be unleashed in a cataclysmic event.

Magma would be flung 50 kilometres into the atmosphere. Within a thousand kilometres virtually all life would be killed by falling ash, lava flows and the sheer explosive force of the eruption. Volcanic ash would coat places as far away as Iowa and the Gulf of Mexico. One thousand cubic kilometres of lava would pour out of the volcano, enough to coat the whole of the USA with a layer 5 inches thick. The explosion would have a force 2,500 times that of Mount St. Helens. It would be the loudest noise heard by man for 75,000 years, the time of the last super volcano eruption. Within minutes of the eruption tens of thousands would be dead.

The long-term effects would be even more devastating. The thousands of cubic kilometres of ash that would shoot into the atmosphere could block out light from the sun, making global temperatures plummet. This is called a nuclear winter. As during the Sumatra eruption a large percentage of the world's plant life would be killed by the ash and drop in temperature. Also, virtually the entire of the grain harvest of the Great Plains would disappear in hours, as it would be coated in ash. Similar effects around the world would cause massive food shortages. If the temperatures plummet by the 21 degrees they did after the Sumatra eruption the Yellowstone super volcano eruption could truly be an extinction level event.

........................................


http://rense.com/general31/overdue.htm

[jeff47]

118. The point is you can't call it "clockwork" when it only happened two times.

Let's move it to a slightly less disastrous scenario.

My parents had two kids, two years apart. Clearly, mom was pushing them out "like clockwork" and we were due a little brother or sister two years after I was born.

It's been 39 years.

Two events does not a pattern make.

[ErikJ]

119. Looks like 3 eruptions , 2.1, 1.3 and .64 mya

Whats very interesting is how the Yellowstone hot spot has moved across from NE Oregon through southern Idaho to its present place over 20 million years.

[trotsky]

133. Well technically the hot spot hasn't moved.

The hot spot is still in the same place. The North American continental plate has moved over it.

[ErikJ]

138. Yes, just like Hawaii

with its ancient trail of volcanoes. The hot spot is now under the Big Island and the rest are now dormant I think.

The Yellowstone hot spot completely transformed the PNW 20 million years ago with a dozen or so liquid basalt flows which flowed all the way to the Pacific and filled the Columbia Basin with deep basalt.
Then the hot spot "moved" east and scoured through the Rockies creating the very flat south Idaho plains.

[liberal N proud]

126. Considering how accurate Old Faithful is, 600,000 years might be accurate after only 2 eruptions

Geothermal features in Yellowstone mostly run on a predictable schedule. The area seems to have a natural timer.

Will it blow? Maybe, maybe not, but considering the accuracy of everything else there, I lean to it will sooner than later.

[galileoreloaded]

145. i think thats more a

function of aquifer recharge/ flow rate and the boiling point of water than plate tectonics and subsurface geology.

[gateley]

19. That will impact a far greater area than the PNW quake.

Although I'm doomed by either one -- I live in Seattle.

[Poll_Blind]

32. Nah, you'll probably luck out on that:

But realize the rest of the nation will be...sort of...kaput.

So it might help to brush up on Chinese or maybe play some Fallout to get used to what could be a dramatic change of pace. Only half-joking.

PB

[gateley]

41. Haha! But Seattle may be the new Atlantis by then!

I think I heard that the ash fallout (or whatever it's called) from the Yellowstone volcano will affect the temperature worldwide.

And...

"We are getting a much better understanding of the volcanic system of Yellowstone," said Jamie Farrell, a seismology graduate student at the University of Utah. "The magma reservoir is at least 50 percent larger than previously imaged."

http://www.livescience.com/28821-yellowstone-supervolcano-bigger-plume.html

[Poll_Blind]

50. Maybe if Yellowstone erupts it'll just be shock troop Reptoids from the hollow Earth and...

...their lusty magma-man henchmen.

Lesse here, in the last 13 years alone I've seen a son-of-a-Bush selected twice, seen the Twin Towers attacked and collapse into themselves, seen whole cities liquefied by the black tsunami which struck Japan, watched three nuclear power plants on that same coast go super-critical and explode...

I mean, being alive right now is kind of like constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop, you know?

It could just as easily be Reptoids. For some reason I think America would be surprised but most of us would be like..."Okay, it's Reptoids now." Absurd is part of the New Normal.

PB

[Spider Jerusalem]

53. More than just weather

if/when the Yellowstone caldera erupts, it'll be an 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index scale. There hasn't been a VEI 8 eruption in recorded history. The last massive eruption was smaller than Yellowstone will be; Mount Tambora in Indonesia erupted in 1815, with a VEI of 7 (from estimates), and the volcanic ash ejected into the atmosphere led to the so-called "Year Without a Summer" (there was snow in New York and New England in June of 1816, ice on lakes and rivers as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August, and worldwide crop failures).

[hunter]

93. If I recall correctly, the worst damage was to the east.

Most of the ash fell downwind, stretching all the way to the east coast. The west coast got ash falls measured in inches, the east coast got ash falls measured in feet. That kind of thing can really mess up your morning commute.

Another mega-disaster would be a large asteroid or comet skipping over the atmosphere like a rock skipping over water. It's hypothesized that such an event happened 12,800 years ago, first incinerating (hot enough to melt sand and vaporize trees) and then pulverizing just about everything on the North American continent.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/122818734

[Poll_Blind]

95. That jives with what I was thinking (assuming?) about the jet stream's effect if...

...that kind of thing ever went down: Basically, that it would help blow a big portion of the ash/whatever to the east. It would be a really strange, alone, feeling to be in a hypothetical Seattle/Portland/Salem/Eugene surviving cities group after such a calamity. Presumably survivors would come in droves to the coast simply because they couldn't make it anywhere else very easily. I don't even know how food would work in a situation like that. Probably, as grim as it sounds, it wouldn't.

The other thing, that thread you linked to: Thanks for that, I'm going to check up on that right now. One of the great things about DU is the further information people can recommend on a topic and, AFAIK, I haven't heard about this event before.

Looks fascinating, thanks!

One of the secret pleasures of mine is trying to find correlation between ancient natural disasters/events/natural phenomena and correlating them to oral histories. For instance (although this isn't something I've actually looked into much) the Biblical Flood.

There was a PDF I grabbed (probably a rip of someone's book) called "Ancient Astronomy" or "Weird Astronomy" or somesuch which went through a large number of celestial events as recorded either through oral history or from ancient astronomers (think Chinese) and tried to correlate the reports to events now known to modern astronomy.

Super fascinating stuff.

PB

[Occulus]

104. Aren't you both just little balls of sunshine.

You both just blandly, 'water-cooler chit-chat' summarized a few of my very worst "it could happen tomorrow" fears; really really bad natural disasters which we know have happened before, and to a near-certainty know will happen again some day....

Thanks awfully. I didn't really need to sleep tonight anyway.

[uppityperson]

111. Yay, I am outside that but damn. Anyone in it will be moving in with me.

It'll be hard to get stuff to grow for a while also, will be cold out I think.

[Skidmore]

131. Just keep an eye out for Woody Harrelson. If he heads toward YSP,

you know it is imminent.

[cliffordu]

2. That's right. The Tsunami will completely fuck things up

forever.

[ErikJ]

5. They predict 60-100 foot deep tsunami.

I feel a bit uncomfortable even going to the coast anymore.

[cliffordu]

7. I don't worry about it. There are worse ways to go.

[Gravitycollapse]

8. Life is waaaaaay to short to worry about shit like that.

[defacto7]

9. Nah... life goes on.

Yes, it's going to be a doozy but I'm not looking out my window for something that's not there. When it is, it will be, and nobody will be able to know it. So forget it. Go to the beach, enjoy being human. Or you can leave. Your choice.

[ErikJ]

12. I'm planning on the latter.

I plan to be moved out in 2 to 3 years. I know too much geology.

[pinboy3niner]

20. I'm taking swimming lessons

The joke's on you, LOSERS!

[ErikJ]

28. lol!

Watch out for the jelly fish and sharks.

[pinboy3niner]

36. I'm not worried about them so much

But I bought a dector for those nasty things that swim up your urethra. As long as I have my Pee Pee Protector system, I think I'll be alright.

[bvar22]

86. Where are you going to go that is "safe" ?

After experiencing the aftermath of Katrina in New Orleans,
my Wife & I moved to a hilltop in West Arkansas.
We won't get flooded here, but we could catch a Tornado coming out of Oklahoma.

Is there anywhere that is really "safe"?

Climate Change is going to get us all anyway.

[pipi_k]

94. I feel pretty safe here

in the Hilltowns of Western Mass.

If there's a tsunami on the east coast, I'm in about 100 miles from Boston, and at around 1300 feet altitude.

We do have tornadoes here, but we're not exactly Tornado Alley.

No serious problems from hurricanes

Flooding at my house is virtually nonexistent, although in town there was some serious flooding when Hurricane Irene passed through a couple of years ago.

Living on rock, we don't feel too many earthquakes. Only one in the 17 years I've been here, and it was pretty minor even though it was centered less than 10 miles away.

The only real problems are snow and ice storms.

I can't think of anyplace else I'd rather live.

[adigal]

124. I'm upstate NY, and pretty safe, too

No earthquakes to speak of, hurricanes bring some wind and rain usually, although Irene brought flooding, few tornadoes, and the ones that develop get pulled apart by the Adirondacks. A tsunami would have to travel very far inland to hit us, and we are at 1100 feet. We could have forest fires, though, and we do have frost until Memorial Day, though, so there is that.

But I do love living in a safer area. Also, when global warming really warms up, it is predicted we will be OK up here - at least we have lots of fresh water, and the zoning map just moved us out of a cold 4 to a zone 5.

[Art_from_Ark]

148. If you're on a hilltop, you're probably safe from tornadoes

All of the big Arkansas tornadoes that I can think of offhand (Ft. Smith, Arkadelphia, Van Buren County, Cincinnati, Springdale, Brightwater, Centerton) tend to have occurred in flat or rolling terrain.

[cascadiance]

37. The problem is that up along the coast near the Columbia river there won't be much higher ground...

for people to run to in the case of a tsunami that launches itself quickly from the Puget Sound area. There simply won't be time or the means for most people living in that area to get out of the way of such a tsunami as there might be in places like Japan or along the California coasts where you have a lot more cliffs and mountain areas close by the sea.

[gateley]

45. I've also heard some speculation that the water could "boing" back and forth

between the mainland and the Olympic peninsula, wreaking even more havoc.

[pscot]

144. I hate it when it does that.

[defacto7]

66. I was thinking he would be heading for Colorado.

[Agnosticsherbet]

4. I'm holding out for an astroid strike.

If it ain't an extinction level event, it ain't shit.

[ErikJ]

6. How about a death toll of a million. The PNW isnt ready at ALL

Japan and Chile are used to the monster EQ's. VERY few of our buildings will hold up. They predict thousands of schools will collapse.

[msongs]

11. just be sure you have lots of american flags to put out the day after, OK? nt

[laundry_queen]

13. It'll be horrid

There was a documentary on CBC about how unprepared Vancouver, BC is going to be for 'the big one'. It's going to change both countries forever when it does happen.

[Art_from_Ark]

34. I remember hearing about Vancouver being unprepared for The Big One

right after the 1989 San Francisco/Loma Prieta earthquake. I envisioned both the Burrard Street Bridge and the Lion's Gate Bridge collapsing, Delta and Richmond liquefacting, and Wreck Beach being under 10 meters of water. I hope that in the ensuing 24 years, they have done *something* to prepare for such a disaster.

[laundry_queen]

38. Well

they have improved the building codes, and I think they now have tsunami drills.

But that's about it.

It's going to be ugly.

[Art_from_Ark]

44. I think it would be particularly bad in Richmond

Richmond, which is where the Vancouver International Airport is located, is sitting on top of relatively weak alluvial sediments transported by the Fraser River, and is barely above sea level.

[u4ic]

146. When the Haida Gwaii quakes hit

It was the USGS who issued the tsunami warnings far ahead of the province (about 40 min). I needed an early night and wondered what the hell to do, as I'm right near the water (on the Island, not in Vancouver). They need to get their shit together.

I saw the documentary and they noted that the Indonesian tsunami behaved quite differently than what they've seen before, as it hit a continent and swung back. It made me wonder how vulnerable Victoria is - if an earthquake happened west of the Island, could it possibly come in through the Juan de Fuca Strait, hit the Olympic Peninsula/Port Angeles, swing over and hit us? I asked at the Emergency Preparedness workshop but they insisted that we're safe (at least from tsunamis), it would be a metre at most. However, the facilitator hadn't heard of this new data.

[laundry_queen]

147. Yeesh

that's not good. You would think they'd be more informed and prepared. Canada, in general, isn't very well prepared for disasters of any magnitude, let alone a giant earthquake/tsunami. I live more in tornado territory (I'm in the prairies), and storm chasers complain constantly about Environment Canada and their extra shitty radars and crappy warnings - they warn of the day an F5 comes barrelling through Toronto (or Winnipeg, or Regina - or Edmonton again). That won't be pretty either. But it dwarfs in comparison to what could happen to you guys. I wish they would get the shit in gear.

[defacto7]

14. That's the problem.

The PNW will never be ready. It can't be ready period. There's no tornado shelter on this one. So forget it or move to high ground. There is nothing that can be done, nothing. I'm all for preparation when it comes to the fixable, but this one isn't. The ground on the entire coast is like living on a sand pile and the coast is going to go bye, bye. Sorry to be blunt but the stats are not nice. Just hope for smaller quakes. Maybe it's time for the geologic frequency to change. We will never know. But it won't change the way I live when I'm there and I am moving back to the PNW. It's my home.

[ErikJ]

15. Hi-ground? Thousands of schools and buildings that they say will collapse. Too expensive to prepare

They are doing some school retrofits but doing them all will take lots of time and billions of $

[cascadiance]

22. Here in Portland it's been hard to get measures passed to retrofit schools that are badly needed...

Many of them will surely get wiped out if there's any kind of significant earthquake.

I mentioned to at least one or more of our elected officials that perhaps we should be going to the screenwriters of the local television series Grimm to have a fictional potential future in one of their episodes showing what this earthquake disaster could look like it if it were initiated by a Vessen character, so that the reality of the potential horror of that situation could be explored in the context of surreal fiction here and perhaps serve to help people around here to wake up to the need to do some things to help prepare us for this potential horrible event later.

[gateley]

26. For years, they'd been saying the Alaskan Way Viaduct would collapse in the next big one

and the one we had in 2001 was a 6.8 and it didn't come tumbling down.

I understand the diff between a 6.8 and a 9+ is GREAT, and all the dire predictions may come to pass, but you can't spend your life living in fear of it.

[Gravitycollapse]

35. The difference in energy released between 9 and 6.8 richter is about 66,000:1

Saying the difference is great is a great understatement.

[gateley]

42. I understand.

A 6.2 is 10 times greater than a 6.1, and so on.

[ErikJ]

52. And mega-thrust quakes last for several minutes too.

You cant even stand up I've heard. EQ proof whatever ya got and buy a small used trailer just in case.

[former9thward]

140. I doubt the used trailer would be of much use.

All of the roads would be impassable.

[ErikJ]

142. I know-just for shelter in yard

Lots of houses may collapse making them unsafe. A big tent would be good too but not as good as a fully stocked trailer with propane heater and water, unless of course a tree falls on it.

[defacto7]

69. Think, liquefaction

The ground under Seattle and the rest of the Puget Sound will liquefy.

[gateley]

122. Yep. Yikes!

[uppityperson]

112. It gives me the creeps to be in/under it anymore. Always aware of the fastest way off or out from

under it. It did move and pull apart in places, don't like to be by it now.

[Agnosticsherbet]

16. It is not feasible to engineer a civilization for a 9.5 earthquake.

So people either move away or just accept that their last chance may run out before they would like. We have the Rose Canyon fault running just off the coast near San Onofre. Sure, they say it will take a 7.0, but its 25 years old and we won't know until the ground shifts, at which point its too late. And who knows when the next wild fire will break out and runs over the city. It is feasible to do something about those, though so far there is no will to pay the taxes it will cost.

The U.S. of A. is going through a disaster season, both man made and natural, if you don't care to give a nod toward man made global warning as the culprit behind the Oklahoma Storm. We live in a chaotic system that will, at times, crash down on our heads.

So plan as best you can, and dance until darkness falls.

[ErikJ]

23. Japan and Chile are ready for 9.5's. It's the law for a long time.

They have experience with a few of the monsters. I talked to some girls that went through the 2010 Chile 9 quake. It was VERY violent but relatively little damage. Their building codes are very strong and strict.
But the PNW hasnt had any strong earthquakes EVER. Its all going to happen at once.

[gateley]

27. It's another example of how we feel we're invincible. It's nation-wide,

not just in disaster-prone areas. Probably no money to be made in making us as safe as possible.

[ErikJ]

43. Its too abstract when it has never happened. People dont want to think about it

Just human nature I guess.

[gateley]

47. New Orleans certainly had its fair share of hurricanes before Katrina, and

Seattle (and Los Angeles and Portland) have had plenty of earthquakes, and nothing much has been done. I do know that for several years buildings in Seattle have to pass some sort of earthquake standard, but not sure anything could stand up against a 9+.

[Agnosticsherbet]

30. If there is no will to change the codes and force people to pay taxes

so they can spend it on retrofits or brand new buildings, there is nothing to be done. There was an 8.5 in Mexico City in 1985. That country change the laws, but I've been there and they're still not ready for another. We humans can be difficult beasts.

[Bluenorthwest]

90. I give you Fukashima and ask how ready they were for that....

The Chile 2010 quake was an 8.8. Epicenter was off shore, villages within a few miles but the nearest place designated as a town was about 60 miles from the epicenter. Same strength in a major urban area would have been highly destructive.

[Hugabear]

100. No they are not

Nobody is ready for a 9.5 earthquake.

[uppityperson]

113. If Japan is ready for 9.5s, why all the damage from the 7.1? Not just Fukushima but all

along the coast?

[ErikJ]

120. Well it was a 9.1 mega-thrust quake but at Fukishima one report sas it was a 7.1 in that location.

9+ Megathrusts can only happen undersea off the coast in certain places so Tokyo wont be hit with a LOCAL 9.1 quake but it has strong enough codes to withstand pretty strong quakes.

[solara]

75. Dance Until Darkness Fails

I like that

[calimary]

25. Lived in L.A. for 50 years. Earthquake threats are something we live with every day.

HOPEFULLY we've learned enough from the last big one here, in 1994, as a community, to retrofit like crazy!

There's this HUGE and extremely annoying road construction project cutting through a large swath of West Los Angeles, through the mountain pass that separates the Westside from the San Fernando Valley, and down just into the valley. It's taken several years. LOTS of retrofitting and modernizing quite seriously needed. That stretch of freeway was built in 1962 - the year my parents and I moved out to L.A. Brand new. It hadn't been attended to in all that time. But MAN-Oh-MAN am I glad it's finally being redone! Needed widening on both sides, complete repaving, and retrofitting for the latest earthquake codes. The freeway AND the various bridges across it. Here in SoCal, we've simply got to do it. No way around it. Traffic has been a nightmare for miles, spilling onto every surface street and major thoroughfare with an on/offramp on that stretch of freeway. AWFUL! You can lose an hour or two, waiting in bumper-to-bumper traffic, almost literally crawling toward the freeway if you use it to commute home. But we have no choice. It HAS to be done. It's long overdue. We've already seen what happens when the earthquake hits the overpass. If you're in the wrong place at the wrong time, you'll be crushed to death by collapsing concrete. Happened in 1994. So yeah, life in earthquake country is - well - unsettling sometimes. Many stores, supermarkets, and even quickie-marts carry some sort of emergency/earthquake survival kit. We're encouraged to keep one in the trunks of our cars, as well as our homes and offices. It's in the back of everyone's mind here, I think.

I worked on a radio documentary once, about an 8.3 earthquake - the size of the "big one" for which we're all told here, repeatedly, to be prepared. It won several awards - it was really a good one - back in the mid 80s. Basically we faked an earthquake. With sound effects and everything, coming out of a regular set of tunes. The small group of us anchors and reporters (back when at least a few rock stations actually still had news and public affairs) each took a "beat" somewhere around town, and reported about what had "happened" there. As in: freeway collapse, grocery store collapse (falling cans. NOTHING to sniff at), emergency room, and so forth. The radio station actually suspended regular programming for a half-hour during morning drive to run it, and promoted it for weeks ahead of time - mainly to alert listeners that what they were about to hear was NOT really happening. AMAZING how we had that kind of management support. It was a really great public service and very cool to be part of.

The basic rule of thumb, seemingly across the board, is - BE PREPARED TO SURVIVE, ON YOUR OWN, FOR UP TO THREE DAYS.

That means having access to enough drinking water, food that doesn't need refrigeration (what if there's no power?), medicines (especially prescriptions), a radio - battery-powered or some such that doesn't need electricity, first-aid kit, and pet supplies if you have pets. Don't forget your quadrupeds!!! The message that's always stressed is - Don't assume you'll get help immediately. What if first responders can't reach you because the streets are messed up? Or if they're overwhelmed? Be able to hang in there for awhile on your own. For up to three days.

It's good advice.

[XemaSab]

33. The US death toll from the quake itself isn't going to be anything close to that

The death toll from the resultant tsunami is going to make the Indian Ocean tsunami look like a joke.

[ErikJ]

46. Yes, the Sound and the Van Bay will be very interesting to see what the tsunami does.

But Portland and Eugene are far inland so no problem there.

[defacto7]

73. Will it be interesting?

Come on Erikj. Liquefaction and the Tsunami will end the Sound and Seattle. You say no problem for Portland of Eugene? I wouldn't bet on it. If there is a 9.5 on Cascadia, there will be new landmarks with no name. Seattle will be gone. Nothing interesting about it unless you are in Idaho and have a SW radio.

[ErikJ]

77. From a morbidly curious viewpoint only. But Tokyo Bay was fine

even though the mega-thrust fracture there was a lot shorter than the Cascadia Fault which "could" fracture for 300 miles. The back side of Java Island during the Indonesian 2004 mega-thrust was fine I think. Hard to predict where the tsunami will reach.

[defacto7]

79. apples and oranges.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

105. The tsunami from the last major earthquake in the PNW (January 26, 1700) devastated JAPAN,

not North America.

The tsunami was well documented in Japan, despite there being no earthquake there, so geologists went looking for an event that could have caused it. They figured out that the tsunami must have come from a 8+ earthquake in the PNW, based on geological and tree-ring evidence.

[ErikJ]

107. Yes, the tsunami on our coast was at least 60 feet deep I recall.

That's how they discovered the evidence in the 1970's, by layered sand deposits far inland.

This is from Wikipedia. :

The 1700 Cascadia earthquake was a magnitude 8.7 to 9.2 megathrust earthquake that occurred in the Cascadia subduction zone on January 26, 1700.[1] The earthquake involved the Juan de Fuca Plate underlying the Pacific Ocean, from mid-Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada, south along the Pacific Northwest coast as far as northern California, USA. The length of the fault rupture was about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) with an average slip of 20 meters (22 yards).

[pinboy3niner]

10. The West Coast also faces rising ocean levels

And earthquakes threaten CA as well as the PNW.

We are all in this together.

But no need to worry--the Zombie Apocalypse probably will get us before those things will.

[SCVDem]

17. I wish we could get a 30 minute warning.

I would head to the WalMart parking lot and ride it out in the back 40.

Then stock up on supplies out of the wreckage.

[pinboy3niner]

31. If it's God's wrath...

...I'm afraid Wal-Mart will be the first to go.

[SCVDem]

84. Ain't that the truth!

But the parking lot is big and unless the earth split would be safe.

I'm counting on the building getting hammered and then salvaging.

I'll pay them rich Waltons later!

Sad to say, it ain't looting if you're white. Remember Katrina?

Hello officer. Look what I found for you!


(0500 Ambien humor)

[siligut]

128. And the mega-churches would be next in line

If it happened on a Sunday morning, god's wrath could alleviate our RW problem

[Poll_Blind]

18. It would be the biggest disaster by far. However, looking at the Cascadia earthquake of 1700...

...the time spread is 300-900 years with an average of 570—590 years- this according to the Wiki page. It's not likely that the quake will be as strong as 9.5. Again, from the Wiki page it's likely to be somewhere in the high eights to low nines.

Not like that'll make all that much difference to those affected.

I live in Eugene. I'd like to hope the being inland will at least give us a fighting chance to get into the nearby hills if something like that happens but hopefully it would not be necessary.

While it is just as likely, in a sense, to not happen as to happen at any given moment, I spend my time mostly thinking about other things.

I do worry more about the safety of my children and the children of our friends in such an event. I've done all the good stuff a person can do and the last thing on the list is just to make sure I shepherd them into a safe adulthood so they can have children of their own and pass on the genetic torch we've all kept lit for so long.

PB

[ErikJ]

40. Well at least anchor-strap your house to your foundation.

Unfortunately my house foundation is on cinder blocks and will crumble to dust. But the fall will only be 3-4 feet. ha.
I have a trailer in my backyard just in case.

[Bluenorthwest]

89. I'm also in Eugene, and I know a few quake and tsunami experts personally

The other poster is correct. Your could be 'today or in 50 years' should be 'could be today, next week, never, 200 years', no one has any idea at all. There is no such thing as an earthquake being 'due' nor any sort of way to time them. Such predictive abilities are the dream objective, but they do not yet exist.
So when anyone uses terms like 'overdue' or 'quake season' I don't put much stock in what they are saying. Quake people would love to be able to say 'this is due soon' but they can not.
Cascadia subduction zone 'big one' would be so devastating that no retrofit or preparedness would really help. Prepare for smaller disasters, of course. But one can not prepare for what the big one would do. At all. Nor can anyone in anyway predict so much as the century in which such a quake might occur.

[roamer65]

106. Another worry would be Mount Rainier.

If the subduction zone moves that much, hopefully it would not set Rainier off. If she "clears her throat" the only thing worse would be a Yellowstone caldera eruption.

[KT2000]

21. You are right

Have found out that where I live, near the Strait of Juan de Fuca, will turn to a jello like substance and be washed out to sea. Even if that does not happen the tsunami will get us. They have an alert system now that is tested periodically but it really hard to understand what is being said.

I already told relatives to not even bother looking for me.

I thought the Nisqually earthquake was it because it went on so long. They say the 9.5 will be much longer in duration.

[Poll_Blind]

24. About how far inland do you live? nt

PB

[KT2000]

29. one half mile

to a small bay that is protected by a narrow spit and then the Strait - then Victoria Canada on the other side.
About a mile away is a river that empties into the Strait. After watching the tsunami in Japan, I realized it is a path for a tsunami that will flood our area.

[Poll_Blind]

39. Oh geeze. Well, I think even in a situation like that once can still be prepared.

Obviously the Japanese have shown us that even in some of the hardest hit areas, people who took their situation seriously and were able to make it to high ground (or whatever passed for it) quickly had a dramatically higher level of survival than those who didn't or (sadly) couldn't.

PB

[Bluenorthwest]

92. Some information of interest to Oregon and Washington posters

http://www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/plans_train/earthquake/shakygroundmagazine_final.pdf

And Oct 13, 2013 will be Shake Out, a preparedness awareness day initiated in CA and spreading to other States...
http://www.shakeout.org/oregon/

[KT2000]

97. thanks for this! n/t

[pinboy3niner]

48. R.I P.

There are risks everywhere in the country. We can take precautions (like avoiding living in flood-prone areas), but we are all at risk, all the time. That's life.

Living a half-mile from the beach is not a bad thing.

[KT2000]

61. That's they way I see it too

I appreciate where I live every day and would not head for the hills for a just in case. Anyway, they have bears up there! I'll take my chances here.

[pinboy3niner]

72. Bears? Oh my!

If I were you I'd stick to the beach, too!

And please know that there's at least one guy stuck in the CA high desert who envies your location--come hell or high water.

[KT2000]

76. Most everyone here

has come from somewhere else - the welcome mat is out!

[pinboy3niner]

78. Careful--you could end up with a permanent live-in guest!

At least until the Zombie Apocalypse comes.

[KT2000]

80. We have some of those too!

Some people call them tea party people.

[uppityperson]

114. And is there a lighthouse at the end of the spit?

PT here.

[KT2000]

123. There sure is!!

[uppityperson]

125. I saw some interesting and cute little tracks walking out that spit once, trying to figure out what

it was from. Finally figured out a skunk. ATV came by with people from the lighthouse and they confirmed a family of skunks lived in the driftwood. I've never seen any in this part of the country, didn't know we had them.

I'm 1/2 mile but uphill so will be able to watch the ocean come in and will wave as you pass by.

[gateley]

49. I noticed the Nisqually seemed to be lasting an especially long time, but it felt almost gentle

compared to some I've experienced.

[KT2000]

57. But do you remember

when it changed movement direction? That made me think it was never going to stop. That one was different.

[gateley]

60. I think I do! And that may have added to my sense that "boy, this is lasting a long time!"

We had a business guest from Germany about a week later and we of course took him to the Space Needle. Our waitress had been working during the quake -- can you imagine? She actually walked down the stairs afterward -- she wanted to get OUT of there!

(The gift shop at the bottom was already selling "I survived the Rattle in Seattle" t-shirts.

[KT2000]

65. Space Needle?!

That would be the worst and getting down that thing with shaky knees too I bet!

[gateley]

98. I'd be afraid to go down those stairs at ANY time.

Even though they're enclosed, you're essentially outside!

[uppityperson]

115. You mean when it did that big roll after shuddering for a while? That was weird.

It felt like was on a boat with a really big swell coming past. It was our "whoah" moment.

[suffragette]

67. Yeah, the rolling of the Nisqually was quite different than the harsh jerk of the ones

I went through when I lived in California for awhile.
It was rolling like that for the one in the 60's, too.

[hollysmom]

51. WTH? I thought the asteroid was going to hit first?

[Poll_Blind]

54. I think the idea is it won't hit but will skip across Yellowstone like a big can opener for the...

...Hellava.

PB

[pinboy3niner]

56. Or possibly the Zombie Apocalypse

CNN says it's too close to call.

[jtuck004]

55. I am looking forward to having beach front property and an ocean view.

In Spokane.

But I won't forget you.

[ErikJ]

59. Spokane-No quakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, mudslides, floods, mega-fires EVER.

You guys are missing all the "fun". Get ready for Yellowstone though. ha

[jtuck004]

62. When Mt. St Helen blew up, it covered the streets here with inches thick layers

of ash, I am told.

But until Yellowstone, it's a great place for building computer storage facilities.

[ErikJ]

63. Yes, probably safest place in the world.

[jtuck004]

70. Until we heat the place up and melt all the snowfall that recharges the

aquifer.

With little rain it could become downright uncomfortable without water. Perhaps a booming business in storage tanks and bottles is in our future, however, figuring out some way to bank the snowfall.

[diane in sf]

71. You forgot the Spokane serial killers...

[Poll_Blind]

58. For everyone who is still not suitably freaked out, please enjoy Miracle Mile:

Enjoy.

Every time I think about things like this...it always comes back to Miracle Mile.

PB

[olddots]

64. I don't worry about a thing cuzz nothings gonna work out right .

Mose Allison said it best .

face it humans are not logical

[Control-Z]

68. The thought of a 9.5 isn't even funny.

California is overdue for a 7 - 8 magnitude quake. I've been thinking that thse past few years. But a 9.5 is just too obscene a number to put out there. All the preparedness in the world wouldn't help any of us on or near the fault that produces that.

With all the catastrophic possibilities mother earth has up her sleeve, there is no place on earth that is completely safe to live. And this is all we've got. Our planet. So we choose a place to live comfortably for as long as possible. And we deal with it when something comes along to upset it.

The truth is, though, we are creating the biggest threat to our comfort and existence in this world. What are we doing about that?

[ErikJ]

74. Yes, The Permian extinction wiped out 95% of life on earth.

And it was caused by out of control global warming of +10 degree Centigrade. If we reach the tipping point things could get ugly.

[JI7]

82. is there any video which shows the same area shaking at different levels during an earthquake

to get an idea of how different each level would be ?

[chknltl]

83. So what is your level of familiarity with PNW geology?

Not looking to pick a fight but I may be interested in picking your brain on an unrelated topic. (Activity on micro-faultlines in Western Washington.) BTW I recently moved from Lakewood Wa. to pretty five acres a couple of miles east of McKenna. The Lakewood area is another area that I have some geologic questions about too.

Unrelated to my questions but on topic, Lakewood sits within a couple miles of Puget Sound. I believe it may be between 50-100 ft above sea level. The bluffs reaching down to the sea are quite steep and consist of loose glacial deposits. (Lakewood itself is not on the sea but neighboring Steillacoom is.) Those same bluffs seem to ring much of Puget Sound. Every year there are stories in the news detailing mudslides along those bluffs. When the 'big one' hits our area I can imagine that those bluffs are going to be VERY problematic to say the least. The landslides caused by a 9.0 earthquake on those bluffs might be another nightmare we are unable to prepare for, not only spilling hundreds of homes into Puget Sound but creating further chaotic tsunami-like undulations throughout the Sound as well!

I have a nice view of Mt Rainier from the balcony of the house I live next to. (I'm the property caretaker) A lot of folks believe this mountain would be much more catastrophic if it erupted like Mt. St Helens did. I wonder if a super-quake might cause a landslide event on Rainier bigger than that that happened on St. Helens. I further wonder about the chaos that could be uncorked from under that mountain should such a slide event occur.

On the other hand it is quite lovely here when the sun is out.

[opiate69]

87. Hey hey!!! Haven`t seen you around in a bit!

I hope things are going well for you. We need to get together and catch up.

[chknltl]

96. Hey you! Been busy but here's a quick catchup:

Lost my last place but got rescued by my sister. Currently living out on her property in her old double wide as caretaker. I spend most of my time out here but go into town twice a week to VA Hospital. (Today being one of those days). You and Ron may know both of my best friends BTW. They are both 'Roof Rats' like us, Brett was the bar manager/bouncer and stage managing handiman, Deb worked the door taking in money and stamping hands. Debs sister Becky was the Bar Manager inside the music room itself. The Red Roof Pub was a magical place because of the the talented people and characters it attracted-you know this to be so because both you and Ron were there soaking in and adding to that very magic.

You may have known the band Sky Pilot, some of those guys play the Stonegate down on SouthTacoma Way. The Stonegate is noteworthy because it is the first Vapor Bar in the nation, (although pot is now legal smoking anything in public is not so the notion of having a Vapor Bar was pure genius). You can often find an aging Roof Rat or two still rocking out there on any given weekend.! If you and Ron still perform perhaps you could get a gig there. (Count on my presence for sure!)

I don't get out much anymore myself. Haven't picked up a camera in years...I know its sorta sad. Well that's my story and I'm stickin to it. How's things going for you? I am not posting here as often but I've kept an eye out for your posts...just hadn't seen any of them in awhile and was getting a little worried truth be told.

[opiate69]

102. Oh, yeah.. I remember the old Roof crew..

Glad to hear you've landed on your feet.. last I talked with you, I recall you were facing some housing issues... Now that I'm working on quitting cigarettes with an ecig/vapor unit, I may have to check out the Stonegate!

[chknltl]

108. Wowsers, quitting cigarettes is craptastically hard!

I quit them bastards a couple of years after the Roof closed. For me it was the hardest thing I have ever done. It took me a week before I was able to tell myself that I was unchained from them but the cravings took longer than that week. The reason i knew at day 7 was because I had a paid for gig to shoot over at the Central Tav on 6th ave. on that day. Smoking was still permitted in bars back then and it seemed like EVERYFUKINONE was smoking at that gig! I somehow hung in there and when I got home that night I knew for sure that I would never EVER stick one of those little sonofabitches in my mouth again.

I likely have no good advice for you but for me a giant box of sour patch kids (likely thousands of em in that box) served as a crutch for me. Made my gums bleed by day 2 but every time I wanted a smoke. .. You have my sympathy dude. I encourage you to tough it out, the destination is waaaay worth the bumpy ride.

BTW my best friend Debby, (yeah that same pretty door girl from the Red Roof Pub), took me to see the new Star Trek movie today. The Lakewood theatre had fancy cushy chairs and we watched it in 3D. We had a blast playing with those chairs, (she had to teach me how to push the buttons because it was all too high tech for this geezer) and the movie was GREAT! If you are at all a fan I urge you to go see it. (One of Debbys' special cookies could be made available if you are into that sort of things, just let me know and I'll make that happen).

I told Deb that you n i were chatting online. She remembers your band BTW...well mostly Mark but given that those memories stretch back 2 decades and that she saw hundreds of bands come through those doors.... I'd call that impressive. See....you guys really did have an impact on our little community. Well enough of this thread hijack. PM me if you like to chat further. Good luck fighting off those bastard ciggarettes.

[Arugula Latte]

135. Woudn't that be a kick in the pants if a huge quake caused Rainier and/or Hood to blow?

Quake, tsunami, volcanoes -- what a trifecta.

[chknltl]

143. it is something this barstool science 'expert' thinks about

One could check the geologic record of this area if one knew which books and reports to look in to see if even one such catastrophic event set off another. It could be argued that the epic landslide on Mt. St.Hellens set off the eruption but we all know that the pressures being built up under that mountain is what set off that landslide and the eruption was the release of those pressures no longer constrained by the weight of the newly vacated mass.

That is what has me wondering. Do we know what kind of pressures, (if any) are being restrained by the mass of mountain material under our 'dormant' volcanoes?

Like the majority of bar stool science experts I can only draw on what I may have seen on the Discovery Channel. I DO know that material from Rainier has catastrophically flowed down through the Puyallup Valley out into Commencement Bay. I DO know that plate tectonics keeps a steady supply of magma doing whatever it is magna does under our Cascades and I do know that Rainier is slowly rotting out from the erosion of acidic gases venting there from that magma. I do know that it is under a nonstop external erosion caused by water and ice and wind. This is what has me wondering how Mt. Rainier would act if it took a hit from a massive region wide earthquake. It is quite beautiful to look at from where I live but ..... well I just don't know.

[treestar]

85. Never heard that

It is California that will get the big earthquake.

[laundry_queen]

109. Not entirely true

according to some scientists. The types of faults (strike-slip) that lie under California usually top out at 8.0-ish, max but are usually more around 6 or 7. Subduction zones, like Cascadia, are prone to locking and then releasing in mammoth 9.5 magnitude monsters. Now, I'm certain that an 8.0 would be absolutely catastrophic in California - I'm not saying it wouldn't. But a Cascadia 9.5 would change the entire west coast and wipe out several major cities.

The dangers of Cascadia were not fully realized until more recently (last 10-20 yrs?) when some geologists found some tsunami deposits many miles inland on the west coast, and linked it up to records in Japan of tsunamis not tied to earthquakes felt there, so there isn't as much information as in California, which has been studied for over a hundred years. So it's not as well known, but it's now realized to be a major risk. On the bright side - it's only been 313 years since the last one, and the interval is usually larger than that.

[cherokeeprogressive]

88. I'd hope people are as compassionate to you

As you were to the people of Oklahoma.

No more, no less.

[NaturalHigh]

103. +1

[ErikJ]

137. Apples and oranges

Moore has been hit 3 times with destructive tornados in the past 14 years. But their ideology is so ant-govt and anti-tax that they do very little to prepare the schools for the next one.
And OK, being EXTREMELY RED, keeps voting for the Koch Bros. backed politicians like Inhofe who is THE LEADING Senator in the Climate-change denial machine. I hate the Kochs so much that all my hatred for them came pouring out after the tornado.

The PNW SHOULD prepare more for the EQ but its hard when there has only been a few very weak ones. And ya cant blame EQ on anything congress does...as far as I know. ha

[cherokeeprogressive]

139. Enjoy your apples.

I lived in Oak Harbor and loved it.

I still think it's wrong of you to want to punish OK people for their neighbors' voting habits.

[ErikJ]

141. Like Thom Hartmann says, "get out there and get active!". Thats the only way you can change OK.

Go take pictures of the children to the Kochs right there in Wichita, or put them on a highway billboard with title: "Koch backed Inhofe __________" Or "NO MORE" School shelters now!"

[Orrex]

91. I for one will demand that emergency funding for the PNW be offset by cuts to education.

[gateley]

99. Bwah! Orrex (R) :-)

[Earth_First]

101. What is this?

Are we competing for sympathy in post-disaster situations?

I'm confused.

[uppityperson]

110. Why get a small trailer? Somewhere to live when the house falls down?

[ErikJ]

121. Yes, if your house is destroyed you could live in your trailer

with propane heat and water supply.

[brewens]

127. Yup. I live in a tornado/flood proof area of the inland northwest. I'm damn glad

to have grown up here, never needing to move very far. I understand it's much the same for many people in the disaster prone areas. I don't think they're stupid for not moving. It just sometimes seems it's the same people that lost everything they own in the latest hurricane or whatever.

Even in "tornado alley" the odds are you'll live all your life and never get hit, as far as I know. Some people seem to think we could just abandon otherwise productive areas because at some point, disaster may strike. It's better to take precautions, have regulations that minimize the damage and cost, then do what it takes to get them up and running again.

It could happen to you. Nuclear disaster, earthquake or whatever. No one is completely safe.

[librechik]

129. no, not with a bang

with a whimper:

http://fukushima.greenaction-japan.org/

[ErikJ]

130. Yes, if Fukushima #4 reactor collapses it could be bad for the PNW -and N. America.

Fortunately there are no reactors in the PNW west of the Cascades. The TriCities are far enough away from the subduction zone.
California ia a different matter though but their big one is going to be weaker than the the PNW one.

[nolabear]

132. Well thanks. My Seattle morning just got a little grayer.

No, I know what you mean and agree preparation is important. As is, I'm afraid, a certain amount of denial. Stay safe, everybody.

[Arugula Latte]

134. Portland here...I've concluded that we're totally screwed when the subduction zone slips.

Putting aside the huge death/inijury toll, a vast area will be difficult to inhabit for decades afterward, once the infrastructure gets wiped out.

It is going to have a huge effect on the U.S. economy as a whole, as well.

[randome]

136. Maybe THIS guy could lend a hand?

I hear he's pretty strong!

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[font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font]
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