"New Audit Allegations Show Flawed Statistical Thinking" Nate Silver 538

[applegrove]

New Audit Allegations Show Flawed Statistical Thinking

Nate Silver 538 at the New York Times

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/17/new-audit-allegations-show-flawed-statistical-thinking/

"SNIP.......................


Ms. Noonan is surely correct that many conservative taxpayers were audited. In fact, based on some simple math that I’ll present in a moment, it’s likely that hundreds of thousands of Mitt Romney voters were selected for an audit in 2012.

However, it’s also likely that hundreds of thousands of Mr. Obama’s supporters were audited. Although the percentage of taxpayers who are audited is relatively low — about 1 percent — the number of taxpayers in the United States is so large that this still yields well more than a million audits every year, across the political spectrum.

The I.R.S. publishes data each year on the number of taxpayers it audits. In 2012, it conducted just shy of 1.5 million audits out of 144 million individual income tax returns.

The probability of being audited is highest for high-income taxpayers — about 12 percent of individuals who made more than $1 million were audited in 2012 — although taxpayers who report little to no income are audited at higher rates than those with average incomes. In fact, about one-third of audits pertained to people who claimed the Earned Income Tax Credit, a benefit for low-income taxpayers.


.....................SNIP"

[tularetom]

1. I was audited in 2010 and 2011

How the fuck did the IRS know who I voted for. It was nowhere on my tax returns and I claimed no deductions in those years that may have tipped them off.

I assume that would apply to "conservative" voters as well.

It looks like just something else Noonan pulled out of her ass.

[applegrove]

2. Using anecdotal evidence to try and prove a pattern and change the thinking of the base. Typical.

[0rganism]

3. pulling things out of her ass is an essential part of Noonan's job

the rest of her job consists of polishing up and framing the results of her initial efforts to appeal to the faithful.

"What do you theeenk, dahlink? Does it look gooood in thees vaaaase?"