Steve Kornacki, Salon: Four Reasons Why The Santorum "Surge" May Not Last

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Why everyone is still writing off Santorum
He’s taken the lead in three national polls, but there are four reasons why it might not last
By Steve Kornacki



http://www.salon.com/2012/02/14/why_everyone_is_still_writing_off_santorum/

1. We’ve been here before: This is the most obvious reason, and it’s been the defining story of the GOP race. One after another, we’ve seen Romney opponents suddenly rise from the back of the pack, vie with him for the lead, promise to unite the Mitt-phobic right, and then … flame out. Significantly, Romney has never experienced the kind of crash that any of these challengers have; he’s had trouble opening up a wide lead in national surveys, but he also seems incapable of falling much below 25 percent. So far, whenever they’ve been forced to focus, Republican voters have ultimately judged Romney’s opponents more unacceptable than him. And when he has scored primary victories, he’s seen his national numbers climb near 40 percent. He’s almost broken away from the pack, in other words. So if past is prologue, Santorum’s surge will prove fleeting, Romney will steady his ship, and we’ll soon be back to talking about Romney’s inevitability. And even if we then go through this cycle again, there’ll still be reason it will end the way it always does, with Romney on top.

2. Money: Romney’s campaign has more of it, and so does the super PAC that’s aligned with him. A lot more of it. Restore our Future, the pro-Romney group, has now committed about $700,000 for television ads in Michigan through early next week, according to the New York Times. A lot more will undoubtedly come after that, since Michigan doesn’t vote until February 28. Restore our Future is also investing in several southern states and in Ohio, where primaries will be held on March 6. Santorum just can’t compete with this. Sure, he’s been on a fund-raising tear since his three-state sweep last week and he has a super-wealthy ally bankrolling a friendly super PAC. But this is similar to what happened to Newt Gingrich a few weeks ago, when a South Carolina victory flooded his campaign with money and prompted Sheldon Adleson to write another $5 million check — and it still wasn’t nearly enough to compete with Romney in Florida.

3. Vicious attacks: They’ve become Romney’s trademark and they go hand-in-hand with his massive bankroll, which can be spent on devastating negative ads as needed. Twice now, Romney and his super PAC have used this technique to combat Gingrich, once in Iowa back in December and again in Florida. And they’re still not letting up on the former House speaker; many of the ads now airing in Michigan are aimed at him. It may be that the Romney forces simply haven’t had time to create anti-Santorum spots yet; or maybe they just want to make sure Gingrich really is marginalized once and for all. Either way, it’s hard to believe that similar attacks against Santorum — who amassed ridiculous popularity in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri by staying out of the Newt/Mitt sniping — aren’t coming. Romney has already begun trashing the former Pennsylvania senator in speeches and public events. And he’s generally been effective at dismantling his opponents in debates, something he’ll have an opportunity to do with Santorum next week.

4. Endorsements: As Jonathan Bernstein has been pointing out, Santorum’s breakthrough last week — like his breakthrough in Iowa back on January 3 — has not resulted in a flood of endorsements from prominent conservatives, or even a trickle. Especially given the financial disparities at work, it’s critical for Santorum to have loud, influential Republican opinion-shapers making his case and defending him against Romney’s attacks. One of the reasons Gingrich was hurt so badly by Romney’s Florida assault was that GOP elites mostly sat on their hands; they were secretly (or not so secretly) happy to see a candidate they saw as unelectable and unreliable cut down to size. The lack of support for Santorum now suggests that may hold similar reservations about him.

[asjr]

1. The four "contestants" left in this run to

kick Obama out of the White House are only there so the t.v. media can fill in their days with punditry and pretending this is something worthy of being on their cable shows. What I think has happened in the states is that the voters did an eeny meeny miney mo selection. They really don't give a hoot which one wins because none will beat Obama. So they had a little fun messing things up for the Republicans. And the media are buying into the charade. Santorum and Romney have been given enough room to decimate each other. Newt is out there admiring his intellectual abilities aided and abetted by his dime store wife and Ron Paul, the crackpot, is along for the ride. They, I believe, do not know what a circus they have brought to town.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

3. I'll give 4 reasons of my own and they all start with S-A-N-T-O-R-U-M

[MadHound]

4. Santorum is simply the batshit crazy flavor of the month

After all, they've gone through Bachman, Cain, Perry, and Gingritch. About all that is left is Paul, who I expect will being making the surge next, after Santorum flames out.

But in the end, Romney is going to get the nod.

[sufrommich]

5. Yeah, he won't last. The GOP displeasure with it's choices

will though.

[intaglio]

6. Wouldn't it be wonderful

... if a Santorum tidal wave overwhelmed the GOP?