Getting Snowden out of Russia will be very difficult, I think

[MannyGoldstein]

To put this in perspective: I had lunch today with a friend of mine who's a Republican (I'm moving him to our side, but it'll take a while to complete the move). He was blown away by what the White House pulled on Morales: "Dude, Obama didn't pull a Bush. He pulled a Cheney! That's an act of war!"

Serious stuff. The WH really, really, really wants Snowden.

The WH is not going to pull a Cheney one day then let Snowden fly off into the sunset a few days later. This will be a challenge.

[morningfog]

1. They'll have to escalate with the next attempt.

"Scrambled jets" or worse. It is scary to think what they might do.

[reformist2]

2. When Russia and/or China get involved, the US usually backs down.

[MannyGoldstein]

5. I suspect that the only thing that will work

is a Russian or Chinese commercial flight filled with civilians, piloted by folks who can play chicken with US interceptors, and which flies only over international airspace so it can't be denied overflight.

I wouldn't be shocked if we shot down military escorts.

[Bolo Boffin]

8. "I wouldn't be shocked if we shot down military escorts."

Really? You wouldn't be shocked if this happened? You wouldn't be posting here at DU over and over about the audacity, the sheer nerve of Obama shooting down those military escorts in the highest dudgeon you could work up?

Really? You must think we're all idiots, Manny, to trot drivel like that out and expect to be taken seriously.

[MannyGoldstein]

9. Orthagonal

I'm not sure if I'm a crappy writer, or you're a crappy reader, but...

"Wouldn't be shocked" doesn't mean "I'd approve". Nor does it mean "I wouldn't be post about it". Nor does it mean "it's not a big deal", incidentally.

Are we straight now?

[Bolo Boffin]

15. There is just so much bullshit I can take from someone and your meter has rolled over.

Now we're straight.

[kentuck]

3. If they thought he was already out of the country...?

and on a Bolivian plane, maybe it is not as difficult as we might think?

Maybe he flew out on the Venezuelan plan while we were chasing the Bolivian "rabbit" for 13 hours?

Maybe he had a smooth flight into Havana and then into Caracas?

[KoKo]

24. The early reports on RT were

there was a Venezuelan embassy car at the airport when Snowden's flight landed. They reported it all day speculating that he would be whisked away to the embassy... By the next day the RT reporters had stopped talking about it.

So..maybe the speculation about Snowden flying out on a Venezuelan plane while Bolivia was the decoy could be what happened.

The lack of further comment from either Kerry or Obama about the Bolivian grounding seems odd since it's caused such a storm in SA and probably was illegal.

[ProSense]

4. Provided

"Getting Snowden out of Russia will be very difficult, I think"

...the current offer isn't simply rhetoric: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023180464

Obama is Cheney doesn't apply.

[IDemo]

6. Simple solution

"Soyuz Capsule Makes Surprise Landing in Venezuela"

[MannyGoldstein]

7. LOL!

Snowden and Ana Chapman pop out of the capsule: A real-life James Bond thing.

Too cool!

[IDemo]

10. Dressed in full wedding regalia n/t

[arely staircase]

12. well ok the chapman option could make him stay

nt

[arely staircase]

11. how does your republican friend's new found distaste for obama affect the snowden business?

the Russians want him out and venezuala's offer of asylum seems to make it more likely not less that he will be leaving soon, no?

[MannyGoldstein]

13. When a Republican is impressed by how hardcore Obama got

Then it's pretty hardcore.

[arely staircase]

14. let us assume for sake of argument that Obama would force down a Venezuelan diplomatic aircraft

I doubt he would but lets assume so. The option then is for arrangements to be made for Snowden to get on a private aircraft without anyone knowing it and heading for Caracas.

[MannyGoldstein]

18. Actually, given how badly the WH blew the call that Snowden was on the Bolvian jet

That might work.

Hundreds of billions spent to spy on everyone, and they can't figure out what jet Snowden's on, nor could they track the older Bomber Brother when specifically told that he was a problem. Amazing.

[arely staircase]

19. So Mr. Snowden need not be worried by your lunch

nt

[MannyGoldstein]

20. I'm not sure that I'd *count* on the US bungling it again

But they might well.

[arely staircase]

21. I hope not

you clearly hope so.

We shall see.

[MannyGoldstein]

22. Ideally, I'd want Snowden to face justice like Ellsberg

But the US is now a country that tortures, and due process is optional for the Executive branch.

I agree with Ellsberg - what he did is no longer tenable, Snowden must flee.

[HooptieWagon]

16. Even Obama is not stupid enough to fuck with an Aeroflot jet in International airspace.

At least, I didn't used to think so. Now, who knows?

[sabrina 1]

17. Unless he's already gone. Has anyone seen him over the past few days?

Could be Russia and China colluded to get him to Russia in the first place. Russia did offer him asylum we are told but only IF he promised not to publish any more information that is 'damaging to our partners in the US'. According to Russia, 'this was too much for him and he withdrew his request for asylum.

[Rochester]

23. They wouldn't need cooperation from any other country if...

...they took him from Moscow to St. Petersburg, and sail him out through the Skaggerak into the Atlantic. Alternatively, he could go to Vladivostok, and from there direct to Venezuela by ship via Cape Horn. It would be a long and uncomfortable trip, but it can be done.
With the cooperation of just one country with both a Pacific and Caribbean coast, he could have a much shorter trip from Vladivostok and make it by plane, using the other country as a transit point.
Another way would be take him to some central Russian city, Novosibirsk maybe, and fly him out of Russia to the northwest, north of Norway and between Scotland and Iceland. That's a relatively straight route that doesn't require any other countries to let him pass over.