2012 map, the western strategy

[usregimechange]

Here are the battleground states as I see them. While it's possible that New Hampshire could go our way as well as Virginia or that we could lose Minnesota, let's focus just for a minute on the following 7 battlegrounds...




Now let's assume that the election goes very bad and we can't pick up new blue states like Virginia and we lose major battleground states of 2000 and 2004 of Florida and Ohio. Further we tank in Iowa. We lose big right? Not so fast.




In 2000 Bush won Arizona by 6.3% or about 100,000 votes. However, Arizona is not the same state. The Hispanic population grew by 600,000 or 46.3% between 2000 and 2010. Granted not all of these numbers are registered voters over 18 years of age but clearly this is not the same state. New Mexico with a 2010 census Hispanic population of 46.3% which gave Obama a 15% victory in 2008 and is now a blue state.

Western Battleground states by percentage of the population Hispanic 2010 census
Arizona 29.6%
Nevada 26.5%
Colorado 20.7%

I believe voter registration drives in these 3 western states, Northeast Virginia and statewide in Florida and Ohio need to be the focus of activists and the Obama campaign. Voter registration drives must be aware of demographic shifts.

Your thoughts?

[msongs]

1. gee let's try governing and running for office under democratic party values instead of repub lite n

[Vincardog]

4. If they did that the would win by 20% easy. Raise the SS CAP. Lower the Medicare age

institute a Financial Transaction Tax. Institute free public education for everybody at all LEVELS.
Start it all by having public financing of elections.

[libinnyandia]

2. I just read an article in The DesMoines Register that showed Obama losing to Santorum, Paul

and Romney. If that happens I will very seriously consider leaving the state.

[DevonRex]

3. Omigosh, I am SO happy to see you here!

All I know is that I'm gonna work my ass off to ensure that Colorado goes blue again.

[usregimechange]

9. +1

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

5. It's Obama's to lose..and, he would have to work very hard to lose.

The Republicans have nothing to offer except Bush III (Romney) or one of the Bozo brigade.

Where can any of the Republican candidates get their votes except from white males? Women? Minorities? I don't think sooooo...

It isn't that Obama's so great but that the Republicans are so very bad.

Barring some unforeseen catastrophe or complete idiocy Obama should waltz through this election.

[AndyTiedye]

6. Everything Could Hinge on the Wisconsin Recalls

If Walker and the teabaggers stay in power in Wisconsin, they will attempt to "deliver" the state for the Republicans by means of vote suppression and outright fraud.

In the latter scenario that would mean President Santorum.

[On the Road]

7. I Would be Wary About Counting on the Effect of New Hispanic Voters

simply because voting rates are traditionally much lower in that group. If Hispanics ever reach the participation levels of the general population, they would be a much bigger political force and would really change some things at the natinonal level.

I agree with your general point, which is that Obama is in good shape and even the loss of a couple of swing states doesn't hand the election to the Republicans.

[boxman15]

8. Looking at different electoral scenarios and at recent polls,

2012 is Obama's to lose. This thing should be an easy win for him and his team. A loss would be one of epic proportions. He'd have to really fuck things up to lose.

What I'm worried about is Congress. If we're stuck with a Teabagger House and a divided Senate, nothing will continue to get done in the realm of domestic politics.

[dsc]

10. The Senate is pretty much gone

We have way more Senators up and way more Senators in states we have difficulty winning in. We have two near certain losses already (NE, and ND) and have to defend in all of the following states (FL, OH, PA, VA, MT, MO). The only states we have any shot at pick ups in are NV and MA. We did amazingly well in 2006 and thus have to defend some really difficult to defend seats.