WTF! Polls Have Santorum Beating Obama!?!

[unionworks]

Was watching MSNBC, they had a report of national polls showing Santorum leading Obama nationally! I didn't catch which polls they were using, if someone else can post the link I'd appreciate it. Are we really a nation of knuckle dragging half wits? This is bringing me down hard. Please help. I can't believe no one has posted on this yet either here or in LBN.

[Renew Deal]

1. Every poll I've seen has Obama beating Santorum by 8-12.

So I don't know what you saw.

[WingDinger]

2. Oh, that Santorum beating Obama with a pole, is a fundraiser ad.

[randr]

34. Santorum beating Obama with a Pole?

Not even if he picked the Pope as VP.

[Progression]

54. A criminal offense!

He attacked Obama with a POLE?!?! He will surely go to jail now.

[VWolf]

3. Maybe they were only polling

"likely santorum voters"

I think in that category he's up 32-30, with the rest still undecided.

[unionworks]

6. the polls they were quoting

...had Santorum leading Obama nationally from a tie to 4 points. I'm sitting here saying "how is this possible"

[LisaL]

10. Maybe you should post a link.

[unionworks]

14. Maybe

I am poor and don't have a computer. Maybe I am posting from my Android phone and can't cut and paste. Maybe the library is closed on a national holiday so I can't get to a real computer untill tomorrow. Maybe I shouldn't let it embarrass me as up until Chimpy destroyed the economy I had a great job and was middle class. Maybe if you look upthread I asked if someone could find this story and post the link since I can't today. Maybe you. Can do this!

[LisaL]

15. It makes for a very difficult discussion since none of us seem to be able to figure out

as to what you are talking about.

[surfdog]

22. Nice

You are a poor guy with an android phone ?

That doesn't copy and paste for some weird reason ....

Maybe you need an iPhone

[unionworks]

35. I am on

A Samsung Intercept on Virgin Mobiles 25 buck a month plan.To the best of my knowledge, I can't cut and paste with this thing. I dunnno. It didn't even come with a manual. If you know how to do it, feel free toenlighten me. But an Iphone? Are you shitting me? My name is UNIONWORKS. Do you know what that means? Apples Iphone workers in China are committing suicide.

[savalez]

49. Here you go!

Hello unionworks.

Hold your finger on the URL bar for a bit until the "Copy Page URL" menu appears.

To paste just hold your finger on a field until the "Paste" menu appears.

[unionworks]

50. thanks much!

Trying it now!

[Codeine]

52. Where was your Samsung made?

Foxconn makes phones and phone components for Samsung as well as Apple.

[Samantha]

51. I took your words to heart and looked up Real Clear Politics polling

Specifically, here is what the polling shows for a Obama v. Santorum race. All you can see, all pollsters have President Obama winning, but the biggest margin of win is reflected -- are you ready for this -- by Fox News pollsters, giving Obama a 12-point edge.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html

If you check out the left-hand side, you can click on any proposed race, for instance, President Obama running against Romney, and see what the pollsters are saying.

Sam

[southernyankeebelle]

21. I don't believe any poll saying holy ricky can beat even a worm. He is terrible down right terrible

especially for women causes. I refuse to believe that.

[unionworks]

4. It's been on

MSNBC all day!

[Nancy Waterman]

5. That might have been about Iowa

I think I heard there was one poll like that, but it has to be an outlier. The more Santorum
opens his mouth, the more repulsive he becomes. I think Romney will make a comeback after people realize that Santorum
is really even crazier than most of them.

[DesertFlower]

7. i wonder why no one ever polls me. nt

[Proud Public Servant]

8. Nope

All polls show Obama beating Santorum. Check it out:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html

And note that the most recent one, while it is the closest (and may be a statistical tie), is also from GOP lapdog Rasmussen -- and Obama's still up.

[B Calm]

16. Thank you

[RZM]

9. Several things

1) Polls fluctuate
2) It's very early and the GOP contest is only now really getting going
3) Santorum's not as much of a known quantity. Once his baggage is more widely known, his poll numbers will go down

[PatSeg]

11. I was thinking pretty much the same thing

The better Santorum polls, the more stories will come out about the "super crazy" side of the man, not to mention the never ending hypocrisy.

[RZM]

13. That's how it always works

Obama, Romney, Paul, and Gingrich are all known quantities. Their baggage and problems are already out there. Santorum is still going through that process. His numbers can only go down from here.

[PatSeg]

19. I think that's why some of

the most bizarre and hypocritical stories haven't been rehashed yet. Saving the best for last. This guy can only keep his crazy under wraps for so long.

[MineralMan]

12. There's one questionable poll in Iowa showing that.

That's the only one I know of. All the others show a victory for Obama.

But, hey, thanks for the inFUDmation.

[unionworks]

17. Wasn't spreading

FUD. I was repeating exactly what I saw on MSNBC. Apparently you would prefer that no one said anything. Sorry, I don't play that.

[MineralMan]

24. Actually, you were all excited about some non-specific thing

you saw on MSNBC. Since there was no link, there was no way to evaluate it. Sometimes it's best to wait until you have more information before posting what you hear.

I explained one poll that showed what you said. It's a questionable poll.

[unionworks]

29. you are right

But damn, theysure made it look like that was what they were saying! I make mistakes as well as anyone. I will do more checking first next time. I can't believe no one else saw this...

[MineralMan]

37. No problem.

Here's what I do when I hear about something and want to post in on DU:

I try to find an online source for what I think I heard.
I check that source.
If it's a reliable source, I'll post the information and a link.
If it's a questionable source, I'll keep searching until I find a reliable one.
If I can't find a reliable source I can link to, I skip making the post. If it's a genuine story, it will show up with a reliable link. If I was wrong, misheard, or otherwise got the wrong information, I won't have posted that wrong information.

Saves a lot of embarrassment for me.

[unionworks]

61. Excellent system

And one I will employ henceforward. I just got so upset initially I let my emotions get the best of me. Santorum had his main office here when he was a Senator. If any good comes off this thread, perhaps like myself it will get more people to the battlestations.

[notadmblnd]

18. you know when I put my glasses on crooked, I see things crooked too?

[unionworks]

26. It is possible

I misinterpretedd what I saw. What I saw was a backdrop saying Santorum leading Obama Nationally. They said by 4 points. I can't find the story and it is possible I am mistaken. I hope so.

[Motown_Johnny]

20. What I saw was Santorum leading the GOP field

I think you misunderstood

[patrice]

23. Always remember, polls are BUSINESSES and the granularity of information engineering is such now

that customers can walk in the door and "order" results that are relatively "valid".

This does not mean that it is not possible for polls to approach authentic validity, just that depending upon the customer, the differences in the specifics of the method of approach can be significant.

Also remember that you can take almost any set of quantitative poll data, derived from specifically engineered questions, interview the exact same subjects with the same questions for more open ended, qualitative, responses, and get significantly high rates of complete reversal on the issues.

All poll results, in order to be authentically understood, need to be within the context of the specific traits of the processes that produce them and, I would guess, the more granular/finer the population set from which the "information" is extracted, the more extremely specific those process traits should be.

[backscatter712]

25. Don't have cable, so I don't know exactly what poll people are talking about...

but if I had to hazard a guess, I'd say that at best, any poll showing the Frothy One beating Obama is an outlier.

And I'm betting that there's some caveat with this poll - maybe it's "likely Republican voters" or "voters from Iowa" or something like that.

[gulliver]

27. "I didn't catch which polls they were using...""

Have you caught which poll yet? I can't believe it.

Republicans should just sit this election out after voting in Bush, starting an unnecessary war, failing to get Osama, and breaking the economy.

Am I right?

[unionworks]

31. It appears I'm wrong

I can't find a damn thing about it on Google, and it appears Obama is leading in national polls. The story I saw may have referred to Idaho. Anyway, a relief.

[Speck Tater]

28. My Republican BIL says he's so disgusted with the field...

that he's not even going to vote this year.

[Major Nikon]

30. In the last poll that actually mattered, Santorum lost to a Democrat by 17 points

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2006

[leftyohiolib]

32. THE MEDIA WANTS IT TO BE A CLOSE RACE THEY HAVE ADS TO SELL

thats what thats all about. but it will come true if we dont vote

[JoePhilly]

33. That's not what the realclear average of all recent polls say ....

Go here .... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html#polls

And expand it to see all polls of Obama versus Santorium ... out of about 20, Santorium was a head in exactly ONE, about 2 weeks ago, by ONE POINT.

Obama wins all of the others by strong margins.

Little Ricky is never going to beat Obama.

[unionworks]

36. Time to get involved, People!

TOMORROW. I am calling local Democratic headquarrters and volunteering. This was too much of a scare for me.

[MineralMan]

38. Now, there's an excellent idea!

[unionworks]

41. if you are young or poor or both

Don't be afraid to go the democratic headquarters and volunteer your time. In 2008 I did exactly that. There was never any snobbery, these wonderful people took me in with open arms, didn't judge my appearance, and we shared the excitement of a common goal and the joy of victory together. It is the experience of a lifetime!

[WI_DEM]

39. The media and the Obama campaign haven't begun going after Santorum like they

have Romney.

[Kingofalldems]

40. The real power behind the GOP will NOT let Santorum be nominated

Guaranteed.

[unionworks]

42. Santorum is Hardball topic

...right now

[The empressof all]

43. I thought Bush would never get elected

So frankly I am no longer surprised at the ignorance of many of the American people

I am no longer so quick to dismiss crazy talk...

[Warren DeMontague]

47. Well, he didn't get elected. Certainly not the first time.

The second time was questionable, too, and that was after our country had been traumatized by watching planes fly into buildings, and our party was in too much disarray to put forth a nominee with a cogent articulation as to why the War in Iraq was a bad idea.

Bush never had a mandate, unless you're counting Mr. Guckert.

[Warren DeMontague]

44. Oh! I sure hope they don't nominate him! What'll we do? What'll we do? He'll be invincible!

Please don't throw me in that briar patch!

[RBInMaine]

45. Chill the heck out. This is bullshit whatever it is.

[Warren DeMontague]

46. I think we should acknowledge that with Santorum's principled social issue stands on things

like outlawing birth control, the GOP has a real winner. Face it, the "values voters" are so numerous as to be politically invincible.

The American People will fall all over themselves to vote for someone who is brave enough to say that America needs to go back to the 50s- the 1350s, mind you- and whose crusty, creepy clever, witty backers are brave enough to tell the 100 million American women who use birth control to "keep your gul durn legs crossed, young lady!"

This is why, for instance, the Komen foundation's decision to defund planned parenthood was such a winner for them. Because so many americans are tired of reproductive freedom and choice.

Rick Santorum is unbeatable. We better just hope (nay, pray!) they don't nominate him.






...

[Thumper79]

48. One Feb. 4, 2012, Santorum led by 1 on Rasmussen poll

http://fwd4.me/0uz5

[gulliver]

53. Jerry Sandusky is a Republican!

http://www.salon.com/2011/11/09/jerry_sandusky_and_joe_paterno_registered_republicans/

And he was given an award by Santorum.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002332842

[aaaaaa5a]

55. Here is the latest info on Obama/Santorum

General Election: Santorum vs. Obama

Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Santorum (R) Spread

RCP Average 2/6 - 2/19 -- 50.0-42.5 Obama +7.5


Rasmussen Tracking 2/17 - 2/19 1500 LV 47-44 Obama +3

CNN/Opinion Research 2/10 - 2/13 937 RV 52-45 Obama +7

CBS News/NY Times 2/8 - 2/13 1604 RV 49-41 Obama +8

PPP (D) 2/9 - 2/12 1200 RV 49-44 Obama +5

Pew Research 2/8 - 2/12 1172 RV 53-43 Obama +10

FOX News 2/6 - 2/9 1110 RV 50-38 Obama +12


These numbers are from RCP. They are fully updated. Because of outliers and pollster bias, the best way to calculate races is to take all of the polls and average them out. This is the way RCP does it. And it is usually DEADLY accurate.

Therefore we can confidently say based on current polling that Obama is enjoying nearly an 8 point lead over Santorum. To put that number in perspective, remember he beat McCain by 6 in 2008.

[WillyT]

56. Nope... Link Here:

Link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html

[onenote]

57. My guess is that you misheard or misunderstood reports of new polls showing Santorum

leading Romney nationally.

Not Obama.

[unionworks]

59. you are correct

They had a backdrop up that said "Santorum leads nationally in polls" while they were discussing Obama - Santorum numbers. My mistake. Sorry. As far as I am concerned, that is still way too damn close for a whackadoodle corrupt dirtbball like Santorum.

[Dawson Leery]

58. Santorum leads Romney nationally for the GOP nomination.

Ricky trails Obama by double digits in all polls, including a 25 point deficit with women voters.

[phylny]

60. In my whacky state of Virginia, Santorum leads Obama in a recent Christopher Newport Poll

[link:http://www.nbcwashington.com/blogs/first-read-dmv/Morning-Read-Santorum-tops-Obama-in-Virginia-matchup-139689283.html|

[lonestarnot]

62. I think you have been snorting cat piss.