GOP’s Long-Predicted Comeuppance Has Arrived

[geek tragedy]

http://editors.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2013/07/gops_long-predicted_comeuppance_has_arrived.php?ref=fpblg

But many close Congress watchers — and indeed many Congressional Democrats — have long suspected that their votes for Ryan’s budgets were a form of cheap talk. That Republicans would chicken out if it ever came time to fill in the blanks. Particularly the calls for deep but unspecified domestic discretionary spending cuts.

Today’s Transportation/HUD failure confirms that suspicion. Republicans don’t control government. But ahead of the deadline for funding it, their plan was to proceed as if the Ryan budget was binding, and pass spending bills to actualize it — to stake out a bargaining position with the Senate at the right-most end of the possible.

But they can’t do it. It turns out that when you draft bills enumerating all the specific cuts required to comply with the budget’s parameters, they don’t come anywhere close to having enough political support to pass. Even in the GOP House. Slash community development block grants by 50 percent, and you don’t just lose the Democrats, you lose a lot of Republicans who care about their districts. Combine that with nihilist defectors who won’t vote for any appropriations unless they force the President to sign an Obamacare repeal bill at a bonfire ceremony on the House floor, and suddenly you’re nowhere near 218.

What's the upshot?

All of this is a harbinger for the coming fight over funding the government. If House Republicans can’t establish a position of their own, then the Senate will drive the whole process (its Transportation/HUD bill will probably pass on a bipartisan basis this week) and appropriations will be extended past September one way or another on the strength of Democratic votes.

[unblock]

1. "a lot of republicans who care about their districts"?

fortunately for the republican leadership, there aren't too many of those.



for republicans, it's all about money. always.

when a republican congresscritter bucks his leadership, it's just a negotiating tactic. the usual message to leadership is, i'll vote with you, but not for free. when the republican leadership "twists arms", usually it amounts to "how much in campaign contributions do we need to steer to your re-election fund"?

of course, every vote is an exercise in game theory. a hold-out will get nothing if it's too easy for leadership to get to 218 with someone else.

in any event, republicans don't care about their district except to the extent that it's a necessary evil for re-election. they only care about having enough money to suppress opposition voters and purchase enough malleable voters to squeak by on election day. beyond that, they care far more about donors, whether they are inside or outside their district.