General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLet's get this thing GOING: Nat'l Dem $$$$$ for Wendie DAVIS running for governor in TX!1
*********QUOTE********
http://llbl.blogspot.com/2013/08/davis-to-run-for-governor.html?spref=tw&m=1
[font size=5]Davis to Run for Governor[/font]
Credible sources tell me that Sen. Wendy Davis will run for Governor in 2014 and not seek reelection to Texas Senate District 10. It will set up a high stakes match-up with Attorney General Greg Abbott in the November 4, 2014, general election.
Sen. Davis believes that she faces a tough race regardless of whether she seeks reelection to the Senate or runs for Governor. In 2010, Gov. Rick Perry received 52.7% of the vote in SD 10 compared to 44.6% for Mayor Bill White. In 2012, Gov. Romney defeated President Obama in SD 10 53.3% to 45.4%. ....
The last Democrat to be elected Texas Governor was Ann Richards in 1990. Since then, the Democratic nominee has received the following percentage of the vote: 1994 - Richards 45.7%; 1998 - Mauro 31.2%; 2002 - Sanchez 40%; 2006 - Bell 29.8%; 2010 - White 42.3%. Public Policy Polling released a poll July 2, 2013, showing General Abbott leading Sen. Davis 48% to 40%, and the same poll had Gov. Perry leading Sen. Davis 53% to 39%. Texas is still a deeply red state, and running for Governor as a Democrat in Texas is a steep uphill climb.
However, the real winner of Sen. Davis decision to run for Governor are Texas Democrats. Without her, they have no credible statewide candidate in 2014. With her, they will likely find other credible Democrats willing to step out and run statewide. She will also provide a race that Battleground Texas, the Obama campaigns effort to turn Texas blue, can organize around. Finally, she will likely boost Democratic turnout in urban counties such as Dallas and Harris helping down ballot Democrats running for county and judicial offices. ....
*************UNQUOTE*************
Marie Marie
(9,999 posts)brooklynite
(94,376 posts)Not because she wouldn't be well qualified, but because she won't get elected. The sad reality (which I learned after a long talk with General Sanchez back in 2011 when he was thinking of running for the Senate seat) is that the Texas Democratic Party is week and disorganized, and won't be able to deliver the votes Wendy needs. Given time and further growth among Hispanics, Texas may become more competitive, but it isn't right now, and Wendy shouldn't waste her shot.
Rstrstx
(1,399 posts)When Julian Castro said last year that Texas would be a swing state in 6-8 years that speaks volumes. 2014 is not in that time frame (or 2016 for that matter).
However, having said that, there may be an opportunity for Davis if the Rs go and nominate someone completely off their rocker. Greg Abbott is not the most likable guy but probably "good enough" for 2014 unless he's deemed not extreme enough in the R primaries.
2018-2020 is certainly more viable but it's still going to be tough to flip the state, mainly because even if the Dems are willing to pour tons of money into the state the Repubs will probably be willing to spend whatever it takes to save the state, if they lose TX it is game, set, and match. By 2022 the demographics should finally start kicking in and the state will be purple for a couple of election cycles before turning blue.
Now all that's presuming the ideological divides between the two parties stay where they are, and that's a BIG if. Surely the Repubs know they are on an unsustainable trajectory long term and they will have to come up with some winning strategy, either by playing better with minorities (mainly Hispanics) or trying to regain the educated white vote. My bet would be on the latter if I had to guess, it was their demographic for many years before the moral types took over.
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)she will be even if she loses. She's also fifty with the Castro Bros in the wings; now or never.
Unfortunately, too many Democrats want a warranty when they run. Uphill fights are nothing new, and we better get used to them and not wait for some demographic to change (Hispanics in Texas are already pushing 40% voting rates for GOPers).
UTUSN
(70,649 posts)quite apart from whatever weakness in the state Democratic party, or rather, compounding the party's weakness with his own.
Defeating my own O.P. (asking for national party involvement in a state), General SANCHEZ was either picked or for sure supported by Senator Patty MURRAY in her national role. Who are the advisors in these decisions. (No question mark. sigh.)
MagickMuffin
(15,933 posts)The Lt. Governor actually has more power than the Governor.
Julian Castro could win hands down because of his heritage alone. I believe this is how Ted Cruz won, because the Latino community supports their own.
Wendy is a wonderful person and deserves to keep herself in Texas politics. She is from my county, however, she is unfortunately not my Senator.