So is Egypt going to be the next Lebanon? :(

[Locut0s]

By this I'm not drawing direct parallels between the two. I know very little of the story of Lebanon, I'm simply referring to the scenario of a previously prosperous and thriving middle eastern country that is torn apart by war and strife. Not saying that Egypt didn't have it's problems before, it certainly did, but I never thought I'd see the day Egypt came to this. It's so sad to see what's happening there I don't think it's too late either, but it's starting to look like things are going down that road. I can't think of too many other military coups, no matter how well intentioned, that have turned out really positively.

[cali]

1. I think it looks more like Algeria circa 1991

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algerian_Civil_War

And yes, it's almost certainly too late. It was also easy to see coming and fits with Egypt's history of military strong men.

[Igel]

2. I could go along with that.

Not Lebanon, though. Not enough actors, too strong an Army, and the sectarian divisions are wrong.

Worst case would be Syria, but there's not a nice Kurdistan parallel and the sectarian divide in Syria doesn't quite match the urban/rural divide in Egypt. Egypt also lacks tribes. It's one of the few actual nation-states in the area, with only the idea of an "ummah" among the MB putting any pressure on the concept at all.

So that rules out an Iraqi or Libyan model.