Who Will Be The Republicant Sacrificial Lamb, Errrr, Presidential Nominee In 2016?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Let the bloodletting begin.

3 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Chris Christie
	1 (33%)
	Rand Paul
	0 (0%)
	Ted Cruz
	0 (0%)
	Scott Walker
	0 (0%)
	Marco Rubio
	0 (0%)
	Sarah Palin
	0 (0%)
	Jeb Bush
	2 (67%)
	Rick Santorum
	0 (0%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[Recursion]

1. Christie, and he'll be a damn tough opponent for us (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Running for president is physically demanding

Lots of travel and sixteen hour days. I'm not convinced he can stand up to the rigors of a campaign. I'm also not sure he can garner the nomination. And even if he does I think his candidacy ensure a third party candidate from the further right which helps us.

Holding the presidency for twelve years is hard but it's been done before and will be done again.

[notadmblnd]

7. I thought he recently had that (Lap Band?)surgery?

I don't think he would have had it if he didn't plan to run. In 2016 he should be about half the size his currently is.

[Freddie]

19. Yes he did

There's already less of him.
I agree he is the most dangerous potential opponent, because he *appears* moderate on the surface. Like Romney, as the Repug governor of a traditionally liberal state, he can't appear too much of a wackjob on social issues--he never tries to restrict abortion, for instance. But what would his views be if he didn't have to play nice in the Garden State? Time will tell.

[OmahaBlueDog]

5. +1

Christie's main challenge will be the primaries. The Tea Party faction is going to want Cruz or Rubio, and will complain that Christie is Mitt-Romney-All-Over-Again.

That said, Christie was smart to work with the administration on Sandy relief, and is one of the few in the GOP right now who appears relatively sane to independents.

My prediction is that the ticket will be Chris Christie/Susana Martinez. Christie could potentially take NJ, PA, DE, and possibly NY out of the blue column. I see him as very dangerous.

However, the following is noteworthy: Several states (like Nebraska) had moved the timeframe back to 8/1/16 to get one's name on the Presidential ballot. The logic was to prevent Cruz or Rand Paul from leading a Tea Party breakaway campaign if the 2016 primaries became contentious over the nomination of a perceived moderate (read: Christie). However, Preibus is proposing to move the GOP Con to June or July, which could short circuit this.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Respectfully, you vastly overrate his appeal

I don't see the infatuation with him. And assuming HRC is the nominee NJ, NY,and PA are the states she's did best in the 08 primaries. And I think Delaware hasn't gone red since 1984.

Why am I so confident?

Because I believe in high turnout elections like presidential elections the Democrats have a demographic stranglehold on the Republicans. When the Democrat is getting 90% of the African American vote, 70% of the Latino Vote, 70% of the Asian vote, and 70% of the jewish vote, it's difficult for the Republican to be competitive. It's close to the point that the Republican needs to get two out of every three white voters and I don't see that happening.

The Republicans have a demographic program that's only going to get worse with every election as this base gets smaller and smaller.

[OmahaBlueDog]

17. I hope you're right. I fear that you are wrong.

While I agree that demographics do play a key role in our future, I also see the struggle for both sides to capture the same 12 swing states as in the past three elections.

Assuming that Christie's weight loss surgery ultimately ends with him at a healthy weight, he'll have an appealing narrative: a blunt/plain spoken (depending on viewpoint) Governor who helped guide his state through a horrific natural disaster, and worked across party lines to do so. All the while, he overcame a personal demon that impacts millions of Americans and is a huge heath cost driver. If he's smart enough to put Susanna Martinez on the ticket, he gets a Latina who can campaign for him in battleground states, and send the message that "Christie's not like other Republicans on the immigration issue."

I'm certainly not saying he's unbeatable, and his own party will do their best to destroy him. I do think he'd be a tough opponent.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. The thing is the Democrats have been doing about as well among these groups, give or take a little

The thing is the Democrats have been doing about as well among these groups, give or take a little, since at least 1984 so it's no transient phenomenon. That's a tangible sample. The huge difference is these groups have become a much larger share of the electorate.

My favorite example is if Reagan and Mondale got the same percentage of voters by race as they did in 1984 and they comprised the same percentages of the electorate as in 2012 instead of a Reagan 59-41% 49 state landslide he wins 52-48% with a lot less than forty nine states. One of the biggest landslides of the twentieth century becomes a competitive race,

Throw in the fact the Democrats have won the popular vote in five of six of the past presidential elections and there's much to feel confident about.

And I don't think putting a Latina or Latino on the ticket or having a Latino or Latina as a spouse is going to sway Latino and Latina voters. Putting Sarah Palin on the ticket in 2008 certainly didn't solve John McCain's gender problem.

[Bluenorthwest]

11. Don't you think he has a tendency to be surly or to be kind, overly blunt?

I assume you are East Coast? Around here, he's known as the guy who takes the State chopper to his kid's games and also as the guy who says rude things to people who ask him questions. Called a Navy Seal an idiot, told a voter his question was 'none of your business'.
Nothing is more harmful to a candidate than an inability to control their snark toward voters and the press, Christie is unable to do so. Under the pressure of a national campaign he'll be worse than ever.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. He reminds me of Giuliani

Full of himself... Many uber successful people are... But those in public life learn to hide it.

I remember when he lambasted that woman who asked him how he could cut the budget for public schools while sending his kids to private schools. He was applauded for telling the woman it was none of her business. Assuming private schools are so much better which I don't it's not the kid's fault or her parents can't afford to send him to private school.

[Ruby the Liberal]

2. I think they will pick Jeb in hopes of capturing

the hispanic vote.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

4. They'll have to work harder than that to get the Hispanic vote.

Their stand on immigration is abhorrent to most Hispanics.

Ruby!

[Ruby the Liberal]

6. His wife is Mexican.

Enough removed perhaps?

backatcha!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

8. Yeah, that's true about her...

We shall see!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Do you think Latinos will vote against their interests because a candidate has a Mexican wife? /nt

[Ruby the Liberal]

20. No clue.

I quit trying to figure out large swaths of people voting against their best interests eons ago. Signs like "Keep the Government out of my Medicare" blow me away every time.

[Coyotl]

9. None of the above. A woman will win the primaries and knock out the old boys club.

And Palin is NOT on the candidates list. She will be too busy worrying about her hair and stuff.

[monmouth3]

10. Buono's numbers are rising in Jersey while Christies favorables are going down..n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. The closer the race the better it is for us

But i don't fear Christie so it's no big deal.

[CK_John]

12. Most likely the next POTUS.

[GeorgeGist]

21. Petraeus.

[kentuck]

22. Jeb Bush and Scott Walker

would be my guess.