How much chance do YOU think there is of a U.S. or Israeli missile strike on Iran?

[Ken Burch]

And do you think such an act would do any good at all?

[Posteritatis]

1. It's been "this'll happen next week!" for what, ten years now? (nt)

[Ken Burch]

2. It was like that in the run-up to World War II, though, wasn't it?

n/t.

[Posteritatis]

13. Leaving aside the fact that it wasn't, that doesn't mean much. (nt)

[DCBob]

3. US.. near zero.

Israel... 50/50.

[customerserviceguy]

7. Agreed

We're not going to start anything, but the result will be the same, we'll be dragged into it.

[morningfog]

10. I agree. And I bet Obama/Clinton/Everybody is

pleading with BiBi to just chill the fuck out. At least till next year.

[libtodeath]

11. Probably about right.

[joeybee12]

19. Yup, all our bluster is just a cover for Israel

when they do it...

[Motown_Johnny]

4. Netanyahu to visit Obama on March 5

So I think we will need to get through that meeting before we can get a good picture of the way forward.


I think an air strike could "do some good" (if you call that good) if only to destroy the entrance(s) into the underground facilities that they don't want us to destroy. Maybe we can't get a buster bunker deep enough to destroy it but we sure as hell can blow the crap out of the doorway and cause some cave ins. You do that four or five times and they might start to get the hint.


This does not mean that I support such an act, just answering your question about the probable success of air strikes.

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. Intrade is saying 43.5% chance by the end of the year

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[Fumesucker]

6. A relatively few people will make a very great deal of money.

So, yes, I do think some good will come of such an attack, for varying values of "good".

The Israeli war drums have been beating so loud and so long I don't think they can back away at this point, sooner or later it's inevitable.

[tabatha]

8. Latest WikiLeaks release:

WikiLeaks: Israel destroyed nuclear facilities in Iran. Anti-secrecy group releases email by US-based global security firm linked to CIA, citing Israeli intelligence source who claims Israelis destroyed all Iranian nuclear infrastructure on ground weeks ago

YnetPublished: 02.27.12, 11:22 / Israel NewsIsraeli commando forces destroyed, with the help of Kurdish rebels, all of Iran's nuclear infrastructure on ground, an email by a US-based global security analysis company released by WikiLeaks on Monday claims. The anti-secrecy group WikiLeaks began publishing more than five million emails from the private intelligence firm Stratfor Global Intelligence, which has been likened to a shadow CIA. Stratfor officials said the release of its stolen emails was an attempt to silence and intimidate it.


http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4195342,00.html

Somewhat interesting - this was reported at the time on AJE blogs, although not reported anywhere else.

Anyway, if they are already destroyed, why would there be a need for a strike?

[NickB79]

20. That'd be an impressive feat, considering the size and scope of Iran's nuclear facilities

At least 5 known nuclear sites, spread out from one side of Iran to the other, and each presumably heavily guarded and fortified. At least 2 are known to be buried deep underground, meaning once the alarms sound they can be sealed to an impenetrable state. And since an attack on one facility would alert the Iranian military, the assault would have to happen on all nuclear sites, in every corner of the country, at once.

Shit, did they use ninjas or something?

[Javaman]

9. Less than 30%. nt

[HopeHoops]

12. Pretty close to zero unless Iran does something really fucking stupid.

[Rex]

14. Zero.

Not unless Iran strikes first.

[Earth_First]

15. Not sure, but if the Wikileaks Stratfor data is correct; there is no need...

Apparently an Israeli surgical strike team already destroyed Irans nuclear capabilities.

[raouldukelives]

16. Pretty darn low.

In my lifetime we've never attacked anyone who could fight back. Can't see them starting now.

[Rex]

17. Oh come on...Reagan had a hell of a time with Grenada!

nt.

[NickB79]

18. Zero. The Israelis don't have the firepower to penetrate the Iranian bunkers

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203363504577187420287098692.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

"WASHINGTON—Pentagon war planners have concluded that their largest conventional bomb isn't yet capable of destroying Iran's most heavily fortified underground facilities, and are stepping up efforts to make it more powerful, according to U.S. officials briefed on the plan."

And from what I've read, we haven't yet sold Israel any of these, only an older, weaker version.

The Israelis aren't stupid when it comes to military assaults. It's all bluster at this point.

[Blue_In_AK]

21. More chance of an Israeli strike than a US strike,

and I think it would be a disaster.