One "speculation" I haven't seen on DU concerning Syria....

[Xolodno]

I was listening to the "dog and pony show" yesterday (working from home with a nasty cold), and I heard Kerry state (paraphrasing) that this wasn't the first time chemical weapons were used and the number by US intelligence numbered attacks in teens...according to the FSA, it was in the 20's. I tried to continue working but my mind said "that doesn't make sense".

So why now? Why is it now that we have to do something if we know this has been going on?

My speculation here....

What if the past uses were on military targets. The Rebels would probably have gas masks, so the casualties would be limited...but at the same time...trying to fight with that on while in the middle of summer will severely hinder you.

This is also the first real mention of heavy civilian casualties as opposed to the others. Which reinforces the view that they were targeting military positions. Which makes it a difficult sell to the American Joe/Jane Public to do any intervention.

So then why did Assad attack an area with a civilian population if he knew he could get away with attacking military targets? Even the Kurds said that he was winning and it would be stupid for him to do so (something I read here somewhere).

So it leaves to this supposition:

1. Assad got over confident that nothing will happen.

2. Assad got bad intelligence that the civilians have left the area.

3. The rebels used the civilians as human shields (Al Qaeda linked?), hence the reluctance and showboating by world leaders.

And here is another thought....have we been told which rebel groups (the FSA, Al Qaeda, Al Nursi linked to AQ, etc) they were targeting?

Again this is just speculation, but...there are too many unanswered questions in this, which has lead to the speculation....

Which in the end means nothing, the strike will probably go on.

[delrem]

1. Another possibility is that Kerry, like all warmongers, is lying his ass off.

[blm]

2. According to Der Spiegel Assad's regime did it, but, now it may have

been a mistake that Assad's brother jumped the gun.

This goes to something Kerry has been pointing out since he gave up expecting Assad to help come to a diplomatic solution - Since Arab Spring, Assad has become increasingly irrational. Which may explain why his brother was in charge of those weapons.

[Xolodno]

3. Which is also entirely possible...

...and a bit perplexing.

Thus it leaves the question....who is really in charge?

Is it Bashar? or his brother Maher?

Which would also explain why the US government and allies are reluctant.

[blm]

4. Either way, with Bashar going off the deep end, his brother

being in charge who is even more brutal, there is a dangerously crazy there that has to be straight-jacketed somehow.