Absentee Exit poll: Romney 42-39%

[RandySF]

Could be a long night: “Conservative Intel and JMC Polling & Analytics have just gotten the results of our exclusive exit polling of likely voters in the Michigan Republican primary. At this moment, Michigan is too close to call with Romney at 39% and Santorum at 38%, with a 5% margin of error.”

I am told the sample for this poll is Michiganders who have voted early, have voted today, or who told the pollster they will be voting by the end of the day.

UPDATE: A regional breakdown and other data:

Upper Peninsula: Romney/Santorum 38% each

Northern Michigan: 43-35% Romney

Flint Saginaw Midland: 42-27% Romney

Metro Detroit: 43-34% Romney

South Central Michigan: 38-34% Santorum

Western Michigan: 48-34% Santorum

Those who voted absentee: Romney 42-39%, Rep 66, Ind 25, Dem 9

Those who have yet to vote: Santorum 38-30%, Rep 43, Ind 38, Dem 19


http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/292193/exit-poll-romney-39-santorum-38

[Mr.Turnip]

1. That doesn't make any sense.

The exit poll shows Romney ahead yet it shows Romney's absentee advantage much MUCH smaller then any poll, including ones that have had Santo up have shown.

[JI7]

2. Romney only has 42 to 39 for Santorum on Absentee ? that's pathetic

[Mr.Turnip]

5. Well that's par the course for Mitt Romney.

[Pirate Smile]

3. That's much smaller then I thought Romney's absentee advantage would be.

[bluestateguy]

4. Those numbers do not add up

If it is Santorum +8 on the election day voters and Romney +3 on the absentees, then there is no was Romney is up 1 on the total. Absentee voting is not that significant in Michigan, like in California or Washington.

[amandabeech]

7. Michigan now has early voting,

which is a somewhat different crowd than absentee.

[Liberal_in_LA]

6. we'll know for certain in a few hours.