Syrian Observatory for Human Rights “shocked” by White House count

[Catherina]

Rep. Alan Grayson ‏@AlanGrayson 8h

Syrian Observatory for Human Rights “shocked” by White House count http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-casualties-20130904,0,681916.story …

U.S. figure for casualties in Syria attack much higher than others'
Britain, France and a key opposition group cite lower numbers of dead in the alleged chemical attack.

WASHINGTON — ....

In pressing Congress to authorize a military strike against Syria, the administration has asserted that the government of President Bashar Assad killed 1,429 people, including at least 426 children, in an Aug. 21 attack on the suburbs of Damascus.
...

U.S. officials say they can't disclose how they derived their figure without compromising intelligence, but they say it is based on a variety of sources and they stand by it.

...

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, generally regarded as one of the most reliable sources of information on casualty figures in Syria, says it has confirmed 502 deaths, including 80 children and 137 women. Rami Abdul-Rahman, a Syrian expatriate who runs the organization from his home in Britain, said he was shocked by the White House's count.

"I don't know where this number came from," Abdul-Rahman said in a phone interview.

He said some Syrian opposition groups disseminate propaganda and exaggerated death tolls in an attempt to sway American politicians.

"The U.S. took this high number from one part of the Syrian opposition that is supported by the U.S. government," Abdul-Rahman said. "We don't trust them."

...

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-casualties-20130904,0,681916.story

[David__77]

1. Kerry simply added all the numbers together from the different accounts.

Then he added an extra 10% for good measure. It's a trade secret.

[Catherina]

2. My first laugh of the day. Thanks n/t

[dflprincess]

7. He probably used the same formula that was used in Vietnam to count Viet Cong dead

Every week the government would release the weekly body counts (apparently not figuring out that a) no one believed them and b) they just helped the anit-war movement)

U.S. Forces: -2
ARVN: 100
North Vietnamese: 1,000,000

Okay, it wasn't that lopsided, but you get my point.

[Madam Mossfern]

35. I remember those counts

I also remember rolling my eyes at them.

[marew]

11. Kerry has no idea what he's talking about.

He says we can absolutely stop the horrors in Syria. Oh please! Is he naive or deceitful or both? The chaos we create could be worse than what they have now.

And why aren't these "compassionate, concerned" leaders suggesting humanitarian aid (pain meds, antibiotics, food, etc.) which is desperately needed for refugees right now- as S. Gupta reported earlier today.

Oh wait, the military industrial complex doesn't make profits off of humanitarian assistance. Silly me!

[jsr]

14. Yep.

[KittyWampus]

17. you'll believe any bullshit as long as it fits your narrative. Amazing how a small number of DU'ers

can post so much bullsh*t in one day.

I posted information from two other groups below. One of those groups is with a hospital in Ghouta, where the incident occured.

[David__77]

21. I'm proud to be among the vast majority that oppose the proposed war...

...

[KittyWampus]

30. what does that have to do with pushing bullshit as the truth?

[delrem]

23. Well *I* believe that secret classified evidence is the best kind of evidence!

Especially when put before the world as justification for an act of aggressive war (and not one of self-defense). Mentioning "Hitler" only goes so far. Secret classified evidence puts the lid on it.

But only if the secret classified evidence comes from a reputable source, like US intelligence agencies - which would never tell a lie. Unlike those bad countries, those bad people, who don't stand for justice, freedom, democracy and the american way like George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Barrack H. Obama, John Kerry.

What I like most about secret classified evidence is that I don't have to think any further, after absorbing it and making it part of my world-view. In fact, I can gobble it down while waiting for my Big Mac order, it's that easy. There're no bothersome problems, like alternative possibilities, other pieces of evidence (classified or not!), or ... well... having to actually think. One doesn't even have to correlate the secret classified evidence with demonstrative fact, because the secret classified evidence *explains* the fact! (What I said above about the bother of having to actually think....).

Secret classified evidence is totally cool. Esp. when the secret classified evidence is cited by a state is pushing a Total Information Control national security program, and is already in way over its head.

[QuestForSense]

29. Take a look in the mirror

Your accusation applies to you as well. And not just you, either. There's really no way to know for certain which, if any, of the 'facts' any of us read are true or accurate, as much as we might want to 'believe' them. If we're going to swallow only facts that comport with our beliefs, we're going to swallow a lot of disinfo, too, since most of us are already too full of it to discern much of a difference.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

32. Perhaps you can address the information and ideas without personal attacks against DUers. nt

[lumpy]

26. Charming- something to laugh about?

[David__77]

27. No, it is really quite sad of him.

...

[joshcryer]

33. Not even remotely funny.

The MSF account of the dead and injured suggests it was closer to 1400 than the OP would suggest. Regardless the numbers game is nothing but cold callous indifference toward those killed by the event.

"Oh, so it was only 4 days worth of killing in the civil war, not 10."

[David__77]

34. Kerry's "1,429," is most definitely a numbers game.

And it is deserving of derision, in my opinion. If he said, "approximately 1,400," that would be different, but he is attempting to make it seems as if all details are 100% nailed down, which is dishonest.

[joshcryer]

36. MSF said 355 dead at just their hospitals.

If one takes the lower bound suggested by the OP (ludicrous), then you're looking at 70% of the dead being at MSF clinics of which there are three. The likelihood of this is very small.

Let's do a simple breakdown of various reports:

MSF: 355

Videos: 281

Medical clinics: 494

Now there may be overlap here, some of the videos may be in the medical clinics (but as far as I can tell they're sort of highly makeshift, and many appear to be on-site of the deaths, not people who managed to make it to a clinic but people who died in their beds).

Rami Abdel-Rahman is sitting in a posh apartment in the UK. His estimates are propaganda in order to make his "news site" legitimized. Many of his death reports are from other Arab sites like erama.info (who actually gives a much higher estimate from the chemical release, it's amusing he'll cite their daily death reports but not cite their number for the chemical release).

I don't know what it is with the west but the west and its people love to downplay numbers. The Indian Tsunami was thought to have killed a few thousand at most, same with Japan, only a thousand or so. In fact, there were outrage posts here about Japan, people "overstating" how bad it was. Iran's earthquake wasn't a big deal. Once the final numbers come out, they are far worse than western observers like to ever admit. Look at Kosovo, a lot of western people played denialist when it came to the ethnic cleansing, then new mass graves are popping up, and the search for victims continues.

I'm not saying I believe the US's actual number but by the same token I have no rational reason to believe the lower numbers. The best numbers we have are the video analysis (all you do is watch the video and write down who you see, have a half dozen do it, the wisdom of the crowd will give you a good estimate with few overlaps) and the MSF's report (which is very likely an exact account). The lower bound would thus be 636 at minimum, add in the medical clinic reports and you're looking at 1130. Watch the videos to figure out who is getting treated in a medical clinic and take them away, it's probably around 800-1000.

[David__77]

37. I'm not talking about magnitude, but precision.

And the implication of "1,429" is that the US has perfect information. For all I know there could be 4,000 dead. That's not the thing I'm talking about.

[Harmony Blue]

3. This bothers me a lot because the figures from different sources are way off

I don't like it all when one source sites 502 and another source states it was 1429. Huge, huge difference in numbers...how do you begin to make sense of it all when no on agrees on the number of dead?

[Coyotl]

4. Truth no longer matters when the USA is starting yet another war.

[marew]

12. You've got that right! nt

[Uncle Joe]

5. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Catherina.

[Catherina]

6. You're welcome. We really need to stop this thing. I hope we have the power to n/t

[Uncle Joe]

8. I believe we do,

Obama asking for Congressional or as he titled it "The People's Representatives" approval tell me that we might.

[RC]

19. Congress is the People's Representative? Who knew? When are they going to start representing us?

[Uncle Joe]

20. As soon as all that money gets out of the way,

it's hard for them to see us over those massive mounds of cold hard cash.

[Waiting For Everyman]

9. As reported by TIME...

Dr. Sakhr al-Dimashqy, the President of the Unified Medical Center in East Ghouta:

“The total number of cases that medical points and field hospitals had received was about 10,000,” Dr. al-Dimashqy said through an interpreter, saying that he helped document 165 deaths, out of around 1,400 total.

http://swampland.time.com/2013/09/06/syrian-opposition-leaders-interested-in-making-case-before-congress/#ixzz2eETvZY89

The government may have additional sources, but there is one.

[ProSense]

10. This is a group aligned with the rebels and accuse Assad of the attacks. Still, from

the link:

Syria's political and military opposition is severely fragmented. The U.S. figure more closely matches reports by pro-opposition organizations such as the Local Coordination Committees and the United Revolutionary Medical Office in eastern Ghouta, a Damascus suburb hit by the alleged chemical attack.

Yes, it's fragmented and there is no doubt a power struggle. Kerry didn't pull the number out of thin air. Clearly, other groups have indicated that level of casualties. Even if one goes with SOHR's number of confirmed dead, it is still a deadly chemical attack launched by Assad.

Syrian Observatory for Human Rights

SOHR has been accused of selective reporting, covering only violent acts of the government forces against the opposition for the first two years of its existence. Although critics concede that its newsgathering has become less partial, the perception is it "continues to defend Islamic extremists to avoid losing support among rebel forces".[11]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Observatory_for_Human_Rights

Local Coordination Committees of Syria

The Local Coordination Committees of Syria (Arabic: لجان التنسيق المحلية في سوريا‎: LCCSyria[3] or LCCs[4]) consist of a network of local groups that organise and report on protests as part of the Syrian uprising.[2][5] In June 2011, the network was described by The New York Times as beginning to "emerge as a pivotal force" in Syria.[1] As of August 2011, the network supported civil disobedience and opposed local armed resistance and international military intervention as methods of opposing the Syrian government.[6]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_Coordination_Committees_of_Syria

[KittyWampus]

16. I posted reports from two other groups below- one of which is from the hospital in Ghouta.

[ProSense]

22. Saw it, and posted it here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023620982

Thanks.

[delrem]

24. I wouldn't let any of these quibbles stop a good old fashioned US bombing.

It'll just be a "demo bombing" after all, and who can deny all that secret classified evidence that the demo bombing is not just justified, but blessed by God?

[Raksha]

13. K & R

[KittyWampus]

15. And here are two reports from 2 other organizations that comport with 1000+ casualties:

1. The Unified Medical Revolutionary Office of Eastern Ghouta reported that 1,302 were killed in the attack, about 70 percent of whom were women and children, al-Baik said.

At least 9,838 others were wounded, he said.

2. In a Saturday report, the Foundation for Defence of Syrian Human Rights claimed the regime used chemical weapons 28 times between July 13th and August 21st. There were 23 incidents in and around Damascus, most recently the attack in Eastern and Western Ghouta, which killed a total of 1,845 and injured 9,924, it said.


And here are two reports from 2 other organizations that comport with 1000+ casualties:

1. The Unified Medical Revolutionary Office of Eastern Ghouta reported that 1,302 were killed in the attack, about 70 percent of whom were women and children, al-Baik said.

At least 9,838 others were wounded, he said.

2. In a Saturday report, the Foundation for Defence of Syrian Human Rights claimed the regime used chemical weapons 28 times between July 13th and August 21st. There were 23 incidents in and around Damascus, most recently the attack in Eastern and Western Ghouta, which killed a total of 1,845 and injured 9,924, it said.

http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2013/08/28/feature-04

[cthulu2016]

18. Is death by nerve toxin differentiated there?

That is something that never seems to be pinned down. My impression is that the sarin rockets were part of a large artillery barrage with conventional and chemical ordinance involved. Is that correct?

If so, it is hard to see how any precise nerve gas death toll could be arrived at without examining each body, though one could certainly estimate.

[nashville_brook]

31. also, with nerve agents there would be illness associated with the caregivers

that should be fairly easy to determine.

[lumpy]

25. Who to believe regarding the no. of deaths from that attack. Two different Syrian

Observatory (both using the same name, evidently at odds with each other) are in the mix. Then France and UK have come up with different numbers of deaths. At this point all we know is that people were killed by lethal gas. To some people it doesn't matter how many.

The fact remains that people were killed by a chemical gassing that has been outlawed by most countries; the question is, might that open wide the doors for more chemical warfare to be used by other countries if Syrian use of gas is ignored ?

[Barack_America]

28. The Observatory's numbers have got to be too low.

MSF said that 350 people died in hospitals affiliated with them. That would mean that 71% of all fatalities made it to, and then died at MSF facilities. That's not likely.