I wouldn't get too excited about the proposal that Syria give up it's chemical weapons

[cali]

How would it work? What would the U.S. need to be convinced?

How long would it take? It would certainly be a minimum of weeks and more likely longer than that. What about the U.S. emphasis on Assad being "punished" militarily for his use of chemical weapons?

Is Assad serious about it or is the regime just stalling?


The State Department issued a statement today that the regime could not be trusted to give up its weapons. Kerry has said that it's impossible that it would happen.

<snip>

"He isn't about to do it and it can't be done obviously," Kerry said.

<snip>

"There is no one in the administration who is taking this Syria proposal seriously," the official said.

<snip>

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/09/politics/syria-kerry/


I think we'll see within the next day or two if this proposal has a realistic chance of averting a U.S. military strike.

[BlueStreak]

1. Or are Obama/Kerry stalling because this isn't the outcome Israel/McCain wanted?

[cali]

4. no, I don't think that's the biggest consideration.

[Puzzledtraveller]

2. The Russia/Syria gambit is just that, a gambit.

The vote in the senate has been scheduled.

[VanillaRhapsody]

5. Of course it has....you think we should just throw up our hands at this early stage?

[Puzzledtraveller]

10. I'm against any and all military action

If tptb's want war we will have it.

[VanillaRhapsody]

12. So you say....

whatever that means...

[Puzzledtraveller]

19. I hope I am wrong.

[cali]

6. Maybe, but the that the vote in the senate has been scheduled isn't

evidence that speaks to your claim.

[David__77]

3. The good thing is it may take the wind out of the war ship's sails.

If only partially, if only due to media messaging problems over the next couple days. The timing is excellent if it's a stalling tactic.

I don't see why Syria would agree to such a thing unless there were some sort of UN agreement regarding embargoing arms flowing to non-state opposition in Syria. They'd be stupid not to try that and numerous other things during any negotiation process. Clearly there is no public appetite for intervention.

[VanillaRhapsody]

7. You mean take the wind out of the ODS sails?

the reason is because Russia does NOT want Assad to be toppled...so that they gets to keep his strangle hold on EU oil imports...

[cali]

13. lol. yes, yes, 'nilla. any analysis of this that

falls short of flat out cheer leading is all about people hating on Obama.

[cali]

8. I agree with you that Syria might very well stipulate something like that.

and that just points out how easily any negotiations can be bogged down.

[BlueStreak]

11. The bad thing is that those whole thing was a smokescreen to divert attention from the NSA issues

and it succeeded brilliantly.

[LittleBlue]

15. Syria agreed because the chemical weapons are of limited value

They can't be used without causing international political defeats, meaning Assad loses far more than he gains by using them. They just don't provide any strategic advantage in this civil war.

That's why he was willing to give them up with no consideration, and it's why Russia jumped so eagerly on Kerry's comments.

[David__77]

20. The threat that Syria might use them was always more powerful than would be their use.

But right now, the key thing is to demand that the government earnestly engage with Russia and Syria through the UN to see if a reasonable agreement can be worked out. Obama's speeches can be placed in the context of these ongoing diplomatic things.

[BlueCheese]

9. You're right.

This allows Russia and Syria to put off any strike indefinitely. It would take forever to send in UN weapons inspectors, etc. etc. to find and account for chemical weapons in the middle of a civil war. They get to look reasonable while delaying any potential US strike for a long time.

[VanillaRhapsody]

14. Oh THEY get to look "reasonable"

the ones with the chemical weapons at stake...

Yeah I hear ya....loud and clear.

[BlueCheese]

16. You don't think Russia looks reasonable...

ostensibly trying to get Syria to give up its chemical weapons arsenal and using diplomacy instead of military force?

[VanillaRhapsody]

17. I think Russia decide to fold...

the only way to ensure that Assad stays in place and protects Russian Oil flowing to EU....

[VanillaRhapsody]

18. You seriously want to use "reasonable" to describe Putin the Topless?

[cali]

21. good grief. that isn't even close to being what the poster said.

[VanillaRhapsody]

23. "They get to look reasonable"

you were saying?

[cali]

25. yikes. the poster said NOTHING about Putin

you projected that.

your grasp of reality is nonexistent, nilly

[VanillaRhapsody]

27. Russia = Putin?

Or does President Obama not call shots in the U.S.?

[VanillaRhapsody]

24. "You don't think Russia looks reasonable..."

[sibelian]

28. Dude, your monitor's SATURATED.

Wipe it all off. You can barely see what other people are typing.

[VanillaRhapsody]

29. Oh mine is...

hahahahaha ...that's rich coming from YOU!

[David__77]

22. From the perspective of int'l public opinion, yes.

It's not so much my own analysis. Both Russian and US, as usual, are engaged in power politics.

[gopiscrap]

26. Yeah I kinda have a cynical attitude towards this offer also!