Will it turn out that Kerry/Obama played 3D chess on Syria or that Putin pulled us back from war?

[yurbud]

I'm not sure.

Though if the last decade and a half is any precedent, I suspect it is the latter.

When the US invaded Iraq to gain further hegemony over Middle East oil, that COULD have triggered World War III, if Russia and China saw it as one of the last dominoes that could lead to US business having a stranglehold on their economic growth through control of oil.

But they held back and let us screw ourselves rather than jumping in screwing themselves too.

Likewise, when we invaded countries on the eastern and western border of Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq, they could reasonably have taken that as a provocation, just as we would if Russia invaded Canada and Mexico.

But instead, they mostly held back.

It seems in this War on Terror era, it's like those two women who came to Solomon claiming the same baby, and Solomon proposed cutting it in half because the real mother would give the baby up rather than do that.

The baby is the world, and we and Russia are the mothers, but our government is the "mother" who wants the baby cut in half--as long as they get both halves.

But I would be glad to be proven wrong.

Which of the major explanations is more likely true?

12 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Obama and Kerry were playing 3D chess and punked us all (for a noble cause)
	7 (58%)
	Putin pulled our bacon out of the fire by taking a throw away line from Kerry and treating it as a real proposal
	4 (33%)
	other (please explain)
	1 (8%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[NYC_SKP]

1. Well, it really doesn't matter to me as long as it ends well.

I'd love to see the energy expended over whether or not Obama deserves any credit go toward something productive.

There's probably some LTTEs we could write about the TPP, for example.

[Uncle Joe]

18. +1.

But what is the TPP?

[VanillaRhapsody]

2. Didn't punk me....

I stayed the course!

[philosslayer]

29. Me neither

Vanilla, I think you and I were about the only ones in on it.

[VanillaRhapsody]

31. I was "standing my ground" on DU!

[treestar]

3. Obama and Kerry were ready to strike

Pooty Poot realized he didn't want that to happen, after all. Wasn't going to be good for him like he originally thought.

Things just happen too; they don't always have to be planned. The stick may work at times; it may have here.

Maybe he started thinking again when Obama squeezed his hand so hard.



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[leftstreet]

4. They ALL play Military Contracts Wheel of Fortune

We, the peons, usually LOSE

This time WE WON

(however briefly, at least until the next spin)

[onehandle]

5. All options are open with these two great men.

Unlike the Bush Junta, which would be giggling and launching missiles.

[wandy]

6. My vote would be all of the above. nt

[Schema Thing]

7. Er, you can't have one without the other.

Putin could have, and should have, demanded and brokered this a year ago and any day since. He didn't. Monday Sept 9th is the day he proposed this, shortly after the USA got more involved.


But if he's sincere, it's great that he is doing it now.

[Zorra]

8. It's obviously ingenious Democratic party strategy employed by Kerry and Obama. Warren/Grayson 2016.

[yurbud]

10. If they had actually gone to war, Republicans could have run as the anti-war party only six years

after Bush.

That would have been quite an accomplishment that Republicans never could have done for themselves.

And Obama would have figured out a way to kill the Democratic Party before the GOP killed itself.

Both epic feats of self-defeat.

[Zorra]

11. Yep. Our clever Democratic Party leaders found a possible diplomatic resolution,

and totally took republicans out of the game.

[Fumesucker]

9. Yes n/t

[EC]

12. I think it's even

I think they discussed this last week and had to wait until Putin could convince Assad. But I think this was planned - it makes both Putin and Obama look good.

[1-Old-Man]

14. Well, the answer is easy enough to discover. If Putin hadn't spoken up where would we be today?

Just remove the one variable, were it not for Putin we would be on the edge of war under our Commander in Chief. So it is Putin, not our CIC who seems to have changed the course of History.

[yurbud]

21. that's a good way to put it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. Life is never that binary, and diplomacy is full of a lot of surprising

moments. Ones that you could not predict, not even the genius in the WH could. In fact, he is probably happy that Kerry misspoke and the Russians ran with it.

It was not planned by any party in this mess.

[yurbud]

22. I would be happy if that were the case

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. When papers are declassified fifty years from now

(perhaps), and historians are able to pour over the whole bloody mess, I am willing to bet that there was a lot of unplanned in this, assuming we still avoid war.

My evidence to this, the POTUS team had to rewrite the speech. Yup, that was reported on twitter by WH correspondents. It tells me that they were all but planning on Russia being "the good guy" in this case. Putin just got the atta boy award of the week. In international relations that is something world powers hate.

Go read a recent history of the Cuban Missile crisis, now that all those documents were released. Something similar is at play here, even if the stakes are probably lower.

[kenny blankenship]

16. For once, Congress rejected war

Obama has been given a way back from a suicidal position. Let's hope he has enough sense not to fuck it up.

[polichick]

17. Actually people all over the world said NO MORE WAR!

[SomethingFishy]

24. +1 If we get through this without attacking Syria it will be thanks to the people

who made their voices heard.

All this "chess" crap is just crap. Obama had no idea Americans would so soundly reject the idea of more bombs. To say that the reaction of the people was all part of Obama's "plan" is insane.

[karynnj]

19. I just listened to a google hangout that Nickolas Kristoff and others had with Kerry

He was asked about this and he said that there have been discussions over the last weeks on this - Obama spoke of it to Putin and Kerry and Lavrov have spoken about it.

Seperate from that, my opinion is:
As to which of the two countries - it sounds like it was both. The US was both making the case that CW wer used and was ready to act on it -- and was willing to accept a plan like this if it could really come about. Russia was publicly discrediting the case and talking about this as a solution. The key now is to find process and language that both countries (and Syria) will agree to.

[bemildred]

20. It takes two to tango. nt

[yurbud]

23. but unique talent to get someone with a gun to your head to dance with you

and Putin isn't the one with the gun.

[bemildred]

26. I get the feeling that you already have an opinion about this? nt

[yurbud]

30. I think I laid it out in the OP, but I'm willing to be persuaded.

[Motown_Johnny]

25. Some of each.

They were ready to strike but took it slow and exhausted all diplomatic channels first. Putin was one of those channels and that path actually led somewhere.

Not 3D chess and not Putin pulling us back. More like leaving no stone unturned and finding Putin under one of them.

[Rex]

27. Could it be possible to be a few different things?

The real question is, now will all parties participate and act accordingly.

[quinnox]

28. A little of both, and the British

and their parliament vote REJECTING war also had a great impact, in my humble opinion. It was a shocking reversal and unexpected for Cameron and the war mongers.

[AverageJoe90]

33. Definitely the former. Absolutely NO doubt about it.

And furthermore, World War III wouldn't have broken out over Iraq, either, not without something truly bizarre(may I refer to "By Dawn's Early Light" again?), or Hitlerian levels of stupidity from any of the nations involved: Hey. Putin may be a tad incompetent and a more than a bit shady, but he's no Hitler, or Stalin for that matter. He wouldn't have started WWIII, even if only because Russia would be toast, if nothing else.

So while perhaps not a 3D chess move, Obama definitely deserves some credit for making a smart move. Kerry, too.