The White House Version of Events is

[cthulu2016]

The idea was floated by Putin at the G20. US did not take him up on it.

Kerry's offer was clearly a gaffe, with Kerry going off script.

Russia jumped on Russia's own proposal when errantly proposed by Kerry.

(Labeling this as the WH version is fair warning, BTW. This is from reporting, not what I really, really wish to be true.)


The White House gets a lot of credit from me for "giving peace a chance" by giving the cat room to run once it was out of the bag. But since it wasn't in the USA's interest a while back there are probably going to be some stumbling blocks along the way. I hope those blocks are not insurmountable.

Anyone who thinks this was a US proposal, or that Kerry did not go off script, or that this was all planned is in the throes of delusion, and beyond reach of reason, at least for the time being.

For the remaining thoughtful persons...

The likely dynamic is something nobody could have planned, and quite interesting. (Sorry for the numbering, but these events depend on each other, in sequence.)

1) Obama threatens to bomb Syria.
2) Putin floats an idea at G20. (Floated only because of the threat of force.)
3) Obama does not pursue idea because the idea is full of problems and room for mischief and risk.
4) Obama's political position deteriorates further.
5) Kerry errantly echoes rejected Russian proposal.
6) Russia jumps on Russia's own proposal with lightening speed. Gets Syria to say good things with lightning speed.
7) Administration recognizes that given the growing likelihood of failing in Congress, what was a bad deal has now become a possibly okay deal. Gives peace a chance. (Not a certainty, by any means, but a chance.)

[LittleBlue]

1. K&R

You've been the most level-headed poster throughout this.

Regardless, let's hope this opportunity isn't squandered.

[madamesilverspurs]

2. Or...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023637576

[Cali_Democrat]

3. We are witnessing the convergence of the hair-on-fire left and the right wingers over Syria

This is fascinating to watch.

[joeybee12]

7. Wow...

What can one say to such well...BS

[cali]

9. nah. what's fascinating is watching the contortionist efforts

of the blind loyalist partisans to portray this episode as a well thought out strategy on the part of the administration.

to believe that you have to believe that the President wanted the mess he faced on the Hill, erosion of support for his foreign policy and the overshadowing of his domestic agenda.

[Cali_Democrat]

14. Funny

Did you read the analysis at the link?

The Washington Times, Fox, Tucker Carlson, Krauthammer all weighed in on the recent developments in Syria and they provided their so-called "analysis". You would think they had DU handles.

Maybe they do.

Utterly fascinating.

[ProSense]

15. Always

"nah. what's fascinating is watching the contortionist efforts of the blind loyalist partisans to portray this episode as a well thought out strategy on the part of the administration. "

...resorting to personal attacks. http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023638131#post8

[Pretzel_Warrior]

4. you have no idea what you are talking about. just as long as Barry gets no credit

all will be right in your world.

[cthulu2016]

5. I thought only Right Wing trolls called the President Barry.

Guess I was wrong.

[joeybee12]

8. Sycophants get that honor, too...

I think we're witnessing the meltdown of the Dem true believers like what happened to Bush and Katrina, when it becamse clear to most that Bush was not in control, and Obama isn't in control here.

[JoePhilly]

11. If Obama wasn't in control, wouldn't we be bombing Syria already?

I mean, that's the view around here ... Obama is just a puppet. The MIC controls him.

[joeybee12]

12. Sorry, that makes no sense...nt

[ProSense]

6. Wait,

5) Kerry errantly echoes rejected Russian proposal.
6) Russia jumps on Russia's own proposal with lightening speed. Gets Syria to say good things with lightning speed.

...why didn't Russia simply go public with the offer? I mean, in this scenario, Russia was lying in wait for something that may not have happened (a comment by Kerry) to jump on the proposal?

Also, the Russians disagree with your take on events.

Any argument about yesterday's developments on Syria is futile if it's premised on:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023638131

[cthulu2016]

13. Your reliance on what the Russians say is touching

As to why Russia didn't go public with it unilatterally... uh, because nations don't like being rebuffed. Makes them look weak.

But agreeing with something Kerry said in public and then being rebuffed makes the US look bad, not Russia.

[ProSense]

18. So they were going to

"Your reliance on what the Russians say is touching

As to why Russia didn't go public with it unilatterally... uh, because nations don't like being rebuffed. Makes them look weak.

But agreeing with something Kerry said in public and then being rebuffed makes the US look bad, not Russia."

...ride this out to a strike if Kerry hadn't made the suggestion? "Reliance on what the Russians say"? You're crediting them with a proposal and implying that they were too afraid to make it public because they didn't want to "look weak."

Yet your premise is that the proposal somehow saved the administration. If the administration needed an out and the Russians knew that, they would not have waited for Kerry's comment to make it public.

As to your last point, huh?

[cthulu2016]

22. Have you ever wondered why people sometimes negotiate behind closed doors?

You're crediting them with a proposal and implying that they were too afraid to make it public because they didn't want to "look weak."

Um... yes.

[ProSense]

24. So they were going to continue hiding the proposal if Kerry hadn't spoken out?

That makes no sense. You're claiming that a proposal to avoid a war is something they were afraid to share.

[Little Star]

26. So Putin played 10 dimensional chess on the 9 dimensional chess that was being played?.....

[GeorgeGist]

25. More than likely Obama blew off Putin's idea as impossible ...

just like Kerry did.

[JoePhilly]

10. This is a better fit ...

1) Over a year ago, the President says Chem weapons are a red line.
2) US diplomats and counter parts around the world, including Russia, begin to discuss contingencies.
3) Rebels make military gains.
4) Assad uses Chem weapons to reverse those gains
5) Diplomats intensify talks, begin to assess alternative paths forward

(your list started with item 5 below, perhaps you could not imagine our diplomats talking to other diplomats prior, I guess)

5) Obama threatens to bomb Syria, and he's not bluffing
6) Obama requests Congressional vote and schedules a prime time address (not bluffing)
7) Diplomats still talking, coming up with alternatives
8) Obama and Putin discuss this deal at G20 (neither wants military intervention if it can be avoided)
9) Kerry says he doubts Assad would accept any deal, and we're ready to strike if needed (not bluffing)
10) Russia says ASSAD, TAKE THE DEAL!!!!
11) Assad agrees.

Oh, and one other thing ...

12) The folks on DU who had been predicting a 2nd Iraq war in Syria begin the search for why this outcome is not a Foreign policy WIN for the President.

[DirkGently]

16. It's like regular diplomacy, except with

more illegal threats of unilateral American military intervention in the Middle East including the ejection of U.N. inspectors in favor of secret, private proof.

Had it just progressed from diplomatic discussion to generalized saber-rattling and back, it would be more like the way sane countries who aren't regarded as failed international bullies do things.

Assuming it proceeds from here, I'm sure we'll all be thankful America accidentally did something akin to normal international diplomacy, with just slightly more failed calls for another undeclared Middle-Eastern war we had no right to contemplate.

I DO have nth dimensional chess theory though. What IF the whole idea was to proposed yet another ludicrously unjustified war-venture, IN ORDER to discredit the idea of the Unitary Executive so thoroughly it would never be attempted again?

This whole thing may accomplish that, in any case, and certainly someone should get the credit.

[frazzled]

17. Trying hard to write history to fit your own notions?

It's hard when facts get in the way, but far be it from me to disabuse you of your dream scenario. Lots of us think up weird and complex notions at night.

[cthulu2016]

20. Please cite what is historically incorrect.

Or just post more smug idiocy.

Either way is cool.

[SidDithers]

23. Speaking of history...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023534346

Sid

[Catherina]

19. Agreed until #7. I think Obama is at odds with the hawks in his administration

as well as all the hawks in the Senate. Kerry being one of those hawks.

I think that when Obama and Putin had a 1:1, away from all the assholes, they rapidly got to some heart to heart level-headed talking and that when Obama came back to the US, this gambit was hailed by the Chiefs of Staff who don't want action against Syria and condemned by the hawks. Yesterday the Russian Foreign Ministry turned some stuff in to the UN that makes the contradicts our flimsy evidence.

I think Obama is trying and that right now he's feeling a lot like John F Kennedy did when he realized how he was surrounded by treachery, liars and war hawks after the Bay of Pigs.

Things weren't pleasant for Obama at the G-20. Dilma Rousseff let him have it about the spying during a private conversation that caused them both to be about 30 minutes late for an official dinner, something not done. She also told him, which was echoed in the Brazilian papers, that all she was getting from his administration was lie after lie and that Brazil wanted a public apology. So Obama promised to look into it personally for her. Mexico let him have it too.

And let's not even mention the Syria mess which overshadowed all their economic talks.

Obama, who I believe is a decent human being, had to face them all alone with the weight of other people's crimes/transgressions/lies on his shoulders and try to repair as much as he could. There's no way that didn't affect him, as a decent human being.

Maybe I'm being naive but that's how I feel right now after being glued to the fast & furious developments. I think Obama, the man, is at odds with many people in his administration right now. His speech tonight may change my mind.

[cthulu2016]

21. I see what you are saying.

Not sure I'm persuaded, though. The Russian idea would, at the G20, have had delaying-tactic written all over it, and thus been a non-starter. But when making this thing just please go away became paramount, a time-wasting fizzle looks pretty good.

I doubt confidence in the Russian idea has increased recently, just that it's downside is less odious.

Same output, but filtered more through political sensibilities.

Or a mix of the two, of course.

I am reluctant to hold a view of what Obama really thinks or really is. Been burned too often, and surprised on the upside a few times. He's so cagey and cool I can't read him.

So you may be right. (?)

[Catherina]

28. Lol but I admit I may be wrong

and you may be right. I forgot myself and got mawkish for a minute there. With either scenario, I think there's a huge domestic tug of war going on right now. In the end, it doesn't really matter, he's the President and he assumes responsibility even if they're not his decisions, he assumes responsibility.

Tonight, Obama is addressing the world. I hope he sounds a more diplomatic note than certain other people in his administration. The bluster, the threats, the chest-pounding are too revolting. They're even more revolting from overseas, away from all the flag-waving, which is something I think we're not sensitive enough towards.

[eomer]

29. Thanks to both of you for this cogent analysis.

Occasionally some light has to shine through the fog machine running full blast around here.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

27. We should be thanking the Brits for derailing the "coalition of the willing".