Still very much on the path to Syria military action-Peace not yet at hand

[NewsCenter28]

Check this out from the BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24044097

Instead, it is proposing a presidential statement from the United Nations Security Council enshrining its ideas. The problem is that such statements are non-binding and thus unenforceable. The international community would have to place its trust in the Assad regime, which up until now has denied the very existence of a chemical weapons arsenal.

It is very hard to see Russia agreeing to a UN resolution that would potentially expose its ally to US military strikes.

For Moscow, the Libya precedent also looms large. Russia regrets not using its veto to block what it later called a "hastily passed" UN Security Council resolution authorising the use of force in Libya and creating the no-fly zone.

Russia believes America, France and Britain used that resolution essentially as a blank cheque to press for regime change.

Equally, it is difficult to see France, America and the UK agreeing to a non-binding statement from the Security Council. They will fear that Russia and Syria are playing them for fools, and that they have been dealing with a phoney offer.

It all comes down to the Kerry-Lavrov meeting. I remember reading old Time Magazine issues in high school covering the lead-up to the 1991 Persian Gulf War. There was great hope that Saddam and the west were going to reach a negotiated compromise several times. These peace efforts collapsed.

I trust John Kerry implicitly but this 2-day meeting with Lavrov in Geneva could not have any higher stakes. It could go either way. Both sides are going to have to be creative and ingenius or else this will all fall apart.

It may even come down to another Obama-Putin direct negotiation on the eve of airstrikes being launched reaching a deal.

Peace is not yet at hand-not by a longshot. IMO. If you think I'm wrong and these Geneva talks are simply a formality, please don't be afraid to speak up. Am I just overanalyzing and being overly sensitive?

[leveymg]

1. That's one of the most informative and realistic observations that has come out in days. Recced.

[joshcryer]

2. I think Kerry personally wants this.

But as far as I can tell if Russia is unwilling to sign off on a UN Resolution under Chapter 6, then nothing will get done. Just as Russia has been not getting shit done for the past two years with regards to Syria. In that vein it would be Russia's backtracking here.