Putin and Assad are trying save Assad's ass. That is not having an upperhand

[ProSense]

Everyone knows the back story, including Putin and his obstruction.

Putin says he, Obama discussed control over Syrian chemical arms
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023640131

Then Kerry said something, and within hours, Russia proposed that Syria accept, which it did, and then the UN signed on. By the end of the day, China and Iran were also on board.

Assad: Russia, Not U.S. Threats, Influenced Me To Surrender Chemical Weapons
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023654652

The threat of force is not going to be removed from the table. It's up to Assad to do the right thing.

Article 41

The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.

Article 42

Should the Security Council consider that measures provided for in Article 41 would be inadequate or have proved to be inadequate, it may take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security. Such action may include demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by air, sea, or land forces of Members of the United Nations.

http://www.un.org/en/documents/charter/chapter7.shtml

He is in no position to make demands, especially ones unrelated to his chemical arsenal, which he was also forced to acknowledge.

By Stephanie Condon

Kerry: High expectations for Syria deal, especially for Russia

As Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov got down to the business of crafting a deal for Syria to hand over its chemical weapons, Kerry on Thursday acknowledged the high expectations that exist for both powerful nations.

"They're high for the United States, perhaps even higher for Russia to deliver at this moment," Kerry said from Geneva, in opening remarks ahead of the negotiations. "This is not a game."

Any deal for Syria to relinquish its stockpiles, he said, must be real, comprehensive, verifiable and implemented in a timely fashion. He added, "There ought to be consequences if it doesn't take place."

Syria has suggested that the regime ought to have the standard 30 days to submit data on its chemical weapons stockpile, but Kerry said, "We believe there is nothing standard about this process at this moment," noting that chemical weapons have already been used.

- more -

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57602674/kerry-high-expectations-for-syria-deal-especially-for-russia/

[sheshe2]

1. K&R!

Thank you.

[David__77]

2. Does it matter?

I'm not sure what spin has to do with it. I think that few would deny that the US is the world's superpower and that Russia is comparatively weak. I also think that few would deny that Assad and the Syrian government have been on the strategic defensive for two years.

[ProSense]

3. Yes, it does matter

that people are hyping Assad and Putin and their bogus claims and spin.

[David__77]

4. I guess I wouldn't understand how being powerful = being good or right.

You can lose and be right or win and be wrong. I do think that some are wrongly assessing the strategic situation because of what they want it to be, which is also strange.

[ProSense]

6. Are you

"You can lose and be right or win and be wrong. I do think that some are wrongly assessing the strategic situation because of what they want it to be, which is also strange."

...arguing that Putin and Assad are "right"?

Stop beating around the bush.

[David__77]

10. I am not arguing that or being coy.

I'm making a point about a common problem that plagues political partisans of various stripes - they are overoptimistic about the strategic situation facing their camp/candidate/issue. They is why people tend to cherry pick or ignore data or view it through a certain opaque lens.

I think it is quite obvious that Syria's government is a very precarious situation, and while it may garner tactical achievements, it is in a strategically defensive posture. That is not a moral judgment, either explicitly or implicitly.

[David__77]

13. Oh, I see...

... you perhaps misunderstood my point about how being powerful does not necessarily mean being right. I meant this to apply to Russia and Syria. You claim that partisans of the Russian/Syrian diplomatic position are wrongly assessing their position as being stronger than it is. I am saying that this would seem odd to me, since I fail to see how being "strong" (in a good position) has any correlation with being right.

[ProSense]

15. No, you misunderstood my point.

"Oh, I see... you perhaps misunderstood my point about how being powerful does not necessarily mean being right. I meant this to apply to Russia and Syria. You claim that partisans of the Russian/Syrian diplomatic position are wrongly assessing their position as being stronger than it is. I am saying that this would seem odd to me, since I fail to see how being "strong" (in a good position) has any correlation with being right."

Bluster from Assad and Putin is to be expected. Those without a vested interest in saving Assad's ass, but are pushing this bluster as an upperhand, are delusional or disingenuous.

[David__77]

18. No, I understood your point.

I made a comment about how the general tactic of "bluster" that you describe, makes no sense, even if it may be expected.

[leveymg]

51. Obama didn't have the votes. That isn't 11th Dimensional Chess.

[ProSense]

30. Welcome to DU.

Maybe you should "listen" for the doorman.

[bobduca]

66. MIRT high five

f the trolls! see we have common cause...

[noiretextatique]

7. no...it does not matter

except to people who think we are still fighting the cold war.

[ProSense]

8. Actually,

"no...it does not matter except to people who think we are still fighting the cold war."

Assad's use of chemical weapons has nothing to do with the "cold war," and neither does the attempt to save Assad's ass.

IOW, the claim is nonsense.

[noiretextatique]

9. so YOU know that it was Assad, for sure?

or is this more of the "all signs indicate" NONSENSE?

[ProSense]

11. So you're abandoning the "cold war" nonsense?

"so YOU know that it was Assad, for sure?"

Yes Assad did it, despite Putin's attempt to blame it on the rebels.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023655921#post1

Human Rights Watch: Syria: Government Likely Culprit in Chemical Attack
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023634928

[noiretextatique]

14. ok...they were WRONG about Iraq

but right this time...got it. no...the cold war is still an issue with Americans, clearly. and since you are fond of cutting and pasting, here's one for you:

Prime Minister David Cameron told British lawmakers Thursday that there is "no 100 percent certainty about who is responsible" for the apparent mass-chemical weapons attack on suburban Damascus on Aug. 21.


Nevertheless, Cameron asserted that "from all the evidence we have," his government, along with the Obama administration, had made the "judgment" that "the regime is responsible and should be held to account."


Also just like the Obama administration, however, Cameron's government has yet to explain exactly what the evidence of Assad's culpability is, or where it came from
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57600624/syria-chemical-weapons-attack-blamed-on-assad-but-wheres-the-evidence/

[ProSense]

16. "got it." Evidently not. n/t

[noiretextatique]

20. what? don't like my link?

I'm sure you don't, since you make quite the effort to craft your message. I see you all got the memo today.

[ProSense]

21. Got anything older than three weeks ago?

I like the link fine. It posed a question. Is there a reason you're ignoring all the evidence that has been presented since then?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023655921#post1

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023655921#post3

Human Rights Watch: Syria: Government Likely Culprit in Chemical Attack
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023634928

[former9thward]

25. Of course you ignore it when the UN says the rebels used gas.

It apparently ok when the al Qaeda controlled rebels use sarin. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE94409Z20130505

[ProSense]

27. No, I didn't, and what does that have to do with the August attack?

UN finds evidence of 'toxic chemicals' and a worsening war in Syria

Just a week after the EU decided to let its arms embargo on Syria lapse and as the international community seeks a political solution to the civil war, a United Nation’s human rights investigation warned of rising violence and found “reasonable grounds” to believe some toxic chemicals have been used.

<...>

The 29-page report, presented in Geneva to the UN Human Rights Council, says that both the rebels and the regime of President Bashar al-Assad are exercising brutality. Child fighters have been involved in combat, with nearly 90 killed, and extrajudicial murders and kidnappings have been on the rise, the report says.

However, “war crimes by rebels, including murder, torture and hostage-taking, did not reach the intensity and scale of those committed by government forces and affiliated militia,” Reuters reports.

<...>

Chemical weapons

The investigation documented abuses between Jan. 15 and May 15, 2013, with at least 17 massacres taking place during the 4-month review period. It also looked into four reported cases of chemical weapons use in March and April.

"There are reasonable grounds to believe that limited quantities of toxic chemicals were used. It has not been possible, on the evidence available, to determine the precise chemical agents used, their delivery systems or the perpetrator," said Paulo Pinheiro, who chairs the UN commission of inquiry.

- more -

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2013/0604/UN-finds-evidence-of-toxic-chemicals-and-a-worsening-war-in-Syria

Syrian forces responsible for Banias massacres: U.N. report

By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA (Reuters) - U.N. rights investigators have established that Syrian government forces were almost certainly responsible for two massacres last May in which up to 450 civilians were killed, a report published on Wednesday said.

The report documented eight mass killings in all, attributing all but one to government forces, but said both government and rebel fighters had committed war crimes including murder, hostage-taking and shelling of civilians in their battle for territory.

The killings in Baida and Ras al-Nabaa, two pockets of rebel sympathizers surrounded by villages loyal to President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of the coastal town of Banias, sent a chilling message of the price to be paid for backing the rebels.

The U.N. commission of inquiry has not been allowed into Syria, but its 20 investigators carried out 258 interviews with refugees, defectors and others, in the region and in Geneva, including via Skype, for their 11th report in two years.

- more -

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/11/us-syria-crisis-warcrimes-idUSBRE98A0D520130911

Human Rights Watch: Syria: Government Likely Culprit in Chemical Attack
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023634928

[former9thward]

60. What does it have to do with it?

Why isn't the U.S. threatening to fire missiles at the al Qaeda controlled rebels who are committing war crimes left and right?

[lumpy]

44. That report is from May of 2013. Can you post an update ?

[former9thward]

59. I have seen no update.

The world community seems to ignore rebel war crimes.

[Pretzel_Warrior]

5. TRUTH!

[Cha]

12. This is all happening because the President wasn't negotiating

from a position of weakness.

Thanks for the OP, PS

[Warren Stupidity]

17. I'm truly sorry you didn't get the war you wanted. Perhaps we can attack Venezuela?

[ProSense]

19. You have me mistaken for your someone in your imagination.

I'll consider this another "leave Assad and Putin alone" reaction.

[Warren Stupidity]

67. imaginary person on the internet is imaginary

who could imagine that?

[stupidicus]

24. Indeed

you can't support a "credible threat" and then be opposed to carrying it out, can you?

I'm guessing the most preferred enemy to attack for most of them would be Iran.

[cheapdate]

22. One would think it's fairly obvious that Russia's and Assad's new-found willingness

to act is directly related to the eight US Navy destroyers that the president has positioned to strike.

But nonetheless, "Boy, that Putin really outsmarted the US president!" seems to be how some people frame the situation. It's hard to understand how a brain can work that way.

[DeSwiss]

23. Couldn't care less who's ass was saved, as long as her's is one of them.....

[riderinthestorm]

63. [phone]. nt

[Scurrilous]

26. K & R

[pscot]

28. Assad's isn't the only ass that's on the line

The President has a lot hanging out there as well. I gotta say, though, that's a pretty fucked up way of looking at what is, essentially, an attempt to broker a peaceful way out of this. We could have done this a year ago, if the Prez hadn't been set on regime change.

[ProSense]

34. Really?

Assad is the one who has to comply. He has to do the right thing.

[raindaddy]

31. Amazing!!

It never ceases to amaze me how the American public allows corrupt politicians and a media controlled by corporate interests to set their agenda.

We're in the midst of the largest income gap between the very wealthy and the middle-class in history and we're talking about spending millions maybe billions of dollars trying to control the Middle East. Think about it, are we going to benefit from getting involved in yet another war? Are you happy that your kids will still be paying for Iraq and Afghanistan after you're dead? They'll surely benefit from the $600 million embassy Bush built in Iraq!!!

Have we gotten to the point where we've forgotten our leaders are supposed to be representing our interests??? We're being told we're going to have to cut Social Security because we're broke but we need to pour more resources into another Middle East country??

Ooooh Putin has an agenda, we can't let Putin's dick look bigger than Obama's! Of course Putin wants to save Assad's ass. Just as we want to save House Of Saud's fat monarchy ass! And what f-ing difference is that going to mean here on Main Street?

Are Americans are so distracted and easy to manipulate they've lost touch with the fact that they're interests aren't being represented anymore.

[ProSense]

35. "Of course Putin wants to save Assad's ass."

That's the only point you made in your rant that's relevant to the OP, which isn't about the economy.

[raindaddy]

40. The point is....

If we really had a President who cared about the problems the majority of Americans are facing Assad's ass would be way down on the list.

This is the most animated I've seen Obama since the first debates against McCain. You seem to have an inside track ProSense, maybe you can get him to give five interviews to the media about the current economic state of the poor and middle-class.

[pinboy3niner]

33. Viewing it as a contest for the upper hand isn't helpful with so many lives and limbs in the balance

What would be REALLY helpful is COOPERATION between the U.S. and Russia in forcing the parties to a peace process that ends the carnage. Not just the threat of CW use, but ALL of the carnage.

[ProSense]

36. But it is being done. n/t

[pinboy3niner]

37. And who has clean hands here, in that respect? nt

[ProSense]

38. Who said anything about "clean hands"?

My point is that Assad and Putin do not have the upperhand.

[pinboy3niner]

39. And you're using framing that is not conducive to peace

An antagonistic competition for the "upper hand" only saps energy that is better directed toward cooperative action to resolve the conflict and end the violence.

[ProSense]

41. What? n/t

[pinboy3niner]

45. You're making this into a contest between Obama and Putin

As I said, the lives and limbs of real people in Syria are in the balance, and a perspective that sees the superpowers in an adversarial role, struggling for dominance, isn't helpful.

Both countries have an interest in ME stability, and working together they have the power to force the parties to negotiate a political settlement that ends the conflict.

What's so hard to understand?

[ProSense]

46. "It is the grand chess game, and at this time I would say the Russians have control of the board."

"It is the grand chess game, and at this time I would say the Russians have control of the board."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023657219

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023657219#post99

Analysis: Putin scores diplomatic win on Syria- CNN
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023657550

I'm stating that hyping Assad and Putin's bluster as having an upperhand is nonsense.

[pinboy3niner]

47. You're playing the same game, promoting the notion of U.S./Obama dominance

I support you on a lot of things, ProSense, but you've completely lost me here.

Most of us here don't give a SHIT about who dominates in the chess game. We want to see our leaders cooperating to bring about a peaceful resolution that ends the carnage. That's all.

[ProSense]

48. No,

"You're playing the same game, promoting the notion of U.S./Obama dominance"

...holding Assad accountable for the chemical attack has nothing to do with U.S. dominance.

I mean, if you are to take Putin at his word, he supports the efforts of the international community to prevent such attacks.

"Russia's position ... is well known - we are against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction of any kind - chemical and nuclear weapons," Putin said.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023640131

[pinboy3niner]

50. You go out of your way to try to prove that Putin doesn't have the "upper hand" over Obama

That's playing the same game.

[ProSense]

52. No, it wasn't "out of" my "way."

It's fairly easy to show that Assad and Putin don't have the upper hand, and that includes in dealing with the UN.

Putin has to deliver. If he continues to obstruct, it will be seen as a delaying tactic.

[pinboy3niner]

55. The fact that anyone feels a need to dispute who has "the upper hand" says a lot in itself. nt

[ProSense]

56. OK, but it is what it is. n/t

[lumpy]

49. Peace is good for Certain. Peace in this world will be slow in coming but not in our lifetime.

Arguing about who has the upper hand, Russia or USA, or Obama shaking the hand of the King of Arabia, etc. does not provide much of value in the slow road to peace. At least it's a start when people begin to take part in discussion. Awareness can lead some people to thinking of something more important than their limited personal interests. But oh my, world peace is a long time coming.

[pinboy3niner]

53. Peace in this conflict doesn't have to take so long

Many, incuding the U.S., have been working for a negotiated political settlement here for some time.

Getting the parties to agree is a challenge, but not an insurmountable one. Especially if Russia is willing to apply its leverage here.

Nobody's asking for "world peace." Just a Syrian resolution.

[reformist2]

42. Please stop trying to twist this into a political win for Obama - it isn't.

[ProSense]

43. Why, are you upset that Assad and Putin don't have the upperhand? n/t

[SwampG8r]

54. im gonna jump in

usually you find me listed as a "hater" because I have a lot of policy issues with the administration
I don't hate the man
I have to be more emotionally involved with someone to hate them
I have never even met Obama so its extremely unlikely any feelings I have toward him are personal
but I am giving him points here for quick thinking and extending an absurdity to an unlikely conclusion
when Kerry gaffed the Russians were ready to stick him with a proposal the US knows Russia cant broker without reining assad in
instead of the US backing away from the Russian proposal we took them up on it
instead of involving us in a military pissing contest we are back to diplomacy
assad will rein in his generals and likely lose his chemical capacities
I see this as a win for Syria and the us and the Russians get to look a little more mature in the process
something for everyone is what I see

[Pretzel_Warrior]

61. Most intelligent people can see Putin is now boxed in by his own words.

He was supplying arms and military equipment to Assad's killing machine and blocking any U.N. From taking any significant action against Assad for his atrocities. Now he's on the hook to disarm his buddy of chem weapons. If find that a hilarious victory for Obama.

[bobduca]

57. America truly is exceptional...

Obama has gracefully recovered from Kerry's surprise announcement of the plan...

like a cat who ran into a closed glass door, in full view of his owners, but plays it off like he meant to do it.

"That's right If i hadn't leapt directly into the glass window, then the credible threat of force would not have created the conditions...for credibility and stuff... meow....ow" <---- dazed cat thought bubble

[ProSense]

62. It is what it is.

America truly is exceptional...

Obama has gracefully recovered from Kerry's surprise announcement of the plan...

like a cat who ran into a closed glass door, in full view of his owners, but plays it off like he meant to do it.

"That's right If i hadn't leapt directly into the glass window, then the credible threat of force would not have created the conditions...for credibility and stuff... meow....ow" <---- dazed cat thought bubble

It's an interesting phenomenon. I saw it during the debates and even at the DNC. There seems to be a lot of screaming by some, including in the media, whenever the administration is involved in any high profile action/activity. They whip themselves into a frenzy and come away convinced that their confusion is the administration's incompetence or inexperience. When it doesn't end in disaster, they deem it a lucky break for the President.

The problem with this approach is that minor mistakes are overhyped and rampant speculation becomes fact. The more detractors there are, the more frenzied the hype and speculation, which is why this situation is where it is today. A lot of people, and many in the media, love to take potshots at Obama, and Kerry brings some others into the mix.

I remember Kerry being asked to respond to some of the speculation that was being presented as fact. It's as if people expect the scenarios they create before they know the facts are to be treated by the administration as its problem. No, stop making shit up and pretending it's real.

Here's the deal: When it works out, and the President walks away having achieved his objective, he's got every right to take credit.

[bobduca]

64. In Soviet Russia...

You don't get the upper hand, the hand uppers get you ?

[ProSense]

65. This is

some funny stuff: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023658321

[Rex]

58. Sounds like a big round of CYA.

Which should surprise about zero people.