Report Suggests Nearly Half of U.S. Jobs Are Vulnerable to Computerization

[Recursion]

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/519241/report-suggests-nearly-half-of-us-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-computerization/

Some economist (Galbraith? Keynes?) had predicted that automation would allow us to keep our standard living with a much lower workload. This doesn't seem to have happened. Maybe if this dam breaks as described here, we can overcome our outdated idea that everyone should have a "job" in order to be able to get things.

A recent report (which is not online, but summarized here) from the Oxford Martin School’s Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology attempts to quantify the extent of that threat. It concludes that 45 percent of American jobs are at high risk of being taken by computers within the next two decades.

The authors believe this takeover will happen in two stages. First, computers will start replacing people in especially vulnerable fields like transportation/logistics, production labor, and administrative support. Jobs in services, sales, and construction may also be lost in this first stage. Then, the rate of replacement will slow down due to bottlenecks in harder-to-automate fields such engineering. This “technological plateau” will be followed by a second wave of computerization, dependent upon the development of good artificial intelligence. This could next put jobs in management, science and engineering, and the arts at risk.

...

These results were calculated with a common statistical modeling method. More than 700 jobs on O*Net, an online career network, were considered, as well as the skills and education required for each. These features were weighted according to how automatable they were, and according to the engineering obstacles currently preventing computerization.

“Our findings thus imply that as technology races ahead, low-skill workers will reallocate to tasks that are non-susceptible to computerization—i.e., tasks that required creative and social intelligence,” the authors write. “For workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills.”

[Not Sure]

1. There are a lot of jobs that will be difficult to replace

such as plumbers, carpenters, electricians and so on. Those type of jobs, the blue-collar trades, are where I will encourage my daughters to work at least once. I'll also encourage them to work in restaurants and hotels, which are also not in much danger of being automated out of existence.

I spent many years working in civil engineering and I disagree with the author's premise that engineering jobs aren't easily automated. As we transitioned from an older version of Autodesk Civil Design to Civil 3D, we saw a gigantic portion of the design timeline automated and entire design teams were rendered obsolete. There was a long period of growing pains where we made the transition, but even during this time and with all the missteps we made it was as effective as the older software and skilled design team. By the time we'd gotten a couple projects under our belts, there was no contest. On my own I could knock out projects that three people had to work on before. I saw myself being on a short list of people who would stay with the company during the recession, but I didn't have much confidence I'd be around in a decade so I changed careers since I had an opportunity to do so.

I also disagree that transportation/logistics jobs will be the first to go. I'm not sure where the author sees much room for automation in these fields, but we're pretty much near peak automation now. Unless private companies are willing to construct their own private infrastructure to move goods automatically, I don't see further personnel reduction at trucking companies or crew reductions at railroads any time soon. Even if trucks and trains moved automatically between terminals, which I don't see happening, there is still a great deal of maneuvering around that must be done at the terminals. At this point, there is nothing near as efficient as a human brain and body at accomplishing these tasks.

Other than that, I agree that there's not much reason for coffee shops to employ humans once a machine can duplicate a cup of coffee to order or for humans to ring up my purchases at a clothing store if there's a self-checkout like at the grocery store. From my point of view, I see those point-of-sale jobs as the most endangered. I will definitely discourage my daughters from working at those jobs.

[Recursion]

2. Driverless cars was how I read that

Those type of jobs, the blue-collar trades, are where I will encourage my daughters to work at least once.

Amen.

[woo me with science]

3. I remember when I was a kid,

we used to talk about this and anticipate that it would be the Golden Age when humans would no longer have to work so hard. Mechanization would create a world that would serve us all, creating enough for all to share without the need for constant toil.

Instead, the demands of our sick financial system make 99 percent of us economic serfs, thrown into terror at the prospect of losing employment.

[OnionPatch]

4. Yep. Advances in technology were supposed to benefit all of society.

Instead most of us are working harder than ever for less.

[devils chaplain]

5. The Legend of John Henry...

"John Henry said, 'I feed four little brothers
And baby sister's walkin' on her knees.
Did the Lord say that machines oughta take the place of livin?'
And what's a substitute for bread and beans? I ain't seen it.
Do engines get rewarded for their steam?"

- as interpreted by Johnny Cash