The U.S.-Russian Deal on Syria: A Victory for Assad

[cali]

A deal with Russia on chemical weapons may be a "win" for President Obama but only in the narrowest sense. He managed to avoid a war he desperately did not want. But with the near-obsessive focus on chemical-weapons use, the core issues have been pushed to the side. These were always more or less the same -- a regime bent on killing and terrorizing its own people and a brutal civil war spilling over into the rest of the region, fanning sectarian strife and destabilizing Syria's neighbors.

For his part, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is effectively being rewarded for the use of chemical weapons, rather than "punished" as originally planned. He has managed to remove the threat of U.S. military action while giving very little up in return. Obscured in the debate of the past few weeks is that chemical weapons were never central to the Syrian regime's military strategy. It doesn't need to use chemical weapons. In other words, even if the regime does comply with inspections (which could drag on for months if not years), it will have little import for the broader civil war, which Assad remains intent on winning.

If anything, Assad finds himself in a stronger position. Now, he can get away with nearly anything -- as long as he sticks to using good old conventional weapons, which, unlike the chemical kind, are responsible for the vast majority of the more than 100,000 deaths so far in the civil war. Let's say Assad intensifies the bombardment of villages and cities using aircraft and artillery. What if there are more summary executions, more indiscriminate slaughter? What we have already seen is terrible, of course, but it is not the worst Assad can do with conventional weapons

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http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/09/the-us-russian-deal-on-syria-a-victory-for-assad/279680/?google_editors_picks=true.

[pampango]

1. In the short/medium run, a big win for Assad. In the longer run, maybe not.

This does preserve his monopoly on air power and tanks/artillery on the ground which have been his main advantages all along. In that sense he wins. Although these advantages have not been conclusive to date, they are enabling him to hold onto power in some parts of the country.

In the longer run (if there is an even longer run in this conflict) if he loses control of his chemical weapons, he loses both his "ace-in-the-hole" ('even if you one day can defeat my army, you can never defeat these weapons') and he loses his role as chemical weapons "protector" ('if you get rid of me look what falls into the hands of the "bad guys"'h.

Most politicians and dictators are concerned with what is in their interest right now, which is why this is a big win for him. Assad probably thinks that the long run can be dealt with down the road.

[Junkdrawer]

2. "chemical weapons were never central to the Syrian regime's military strategy"

But he decided to use them THE DAY the UN inspectors arrived because he was losing and desperate.

Oh.

[Igel]

3. Good. Somebody finally has proof.

I'd like to see where he authorized it. Please share.

Right now we have conflicting reports, but they all seem to be, "Of course he did--we believe, so what need have we of proof? But if you insist, here's the proof--he had means, motivation, and opportunity, so he might well have done it. Since he might have, that is absolute proof that he did. After all, Cui bono?"

[Junkdrawer]

4. Love to but it's top secret...not even Congress gets to hear that...n/t