General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums'Big One' is due, quake experts say
Sitting on a major fault line, Oregon is "like an eight-and-a-half-month pregnancy, due any time now" for a major earthquake, a geologist with the Oregon Office of Emergency Management told an overflow crowd Friday in Medford.
"We're in the zone, and we'd darn well better get ourselves ready for it," said Althea Rizzo, geology hazard coordinator for OEM. "A lot of you may have moved here from California to escape them, but the fact is, Oregon is earthquake country."
A major earthquake would cripple transportation on Interstate 5 as bridges and overpasses collapse from two to four minutes of ground shaking, possible very severe, with stressful aftershocks for weeks.
"It's going to shake here," she said. "Single-family homes will bounce off their foundations. Landslides will cause transportation between I-5 and (Highway) 101 on the coast to be cut off for three to five years."
http://www.mailtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130921/NEWS/309210314
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Unlike the San Andreas, which is a slip-strike, I believe is the term. As in, the two plates are moving against each other in opp. directions, as opposed to one sliding under the other.
Short answer is, yes, the Pacific NW is vulnerable to extremely strong quakes.
Link Speed
(650 posts)I just had the bottom of my pool tiled and would hate for it to get cracked.
1000words
(7,051 posts)But hey ... your pool will be fine.
A HERETIC I AM
(24,317 posts)"Do you have any idea what an event like this would do to regional economic stability?"
Well, it's sure to make work for pool tile people.
Sorry. Had to.
Link Speed
(650 posts)Does everything have to be serious?
Lock-step is not my idea of a good time.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)And fracking issues. Oregon is ready to blow. Lol. Decades I haven't heard anything. Now this
bhikkhu
(10,708 posts)If you're not on a floodplain or beside running water, chances are you'll be fine. If you're a few miles from a faultline, you'll probably feel an earthquake, but that's enough to make damage unlikely. There's a faultline about 2 miles from my house (brick, built in the 20's), but a decent sized earthquake a few years ago didn't do any harm to the neighborhood.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)to a place or the day before i moved away from a place. bishop, castroville/watsonville, san diego. i felt like i was a damn magnet for earthquakes.
thinking of oregon the other day i was saying. well, at least i never hear of major earthquakes there. then i started thinking firther. why not? they are coastal. same range. they should have them like calif. but they dont. meh.... sounds good
then here this article is.
was a funny to me.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)It's kind of fascinating, when you step back from the freaky aspect. California has the San Andreas and affiliated smaller faults, which are basically the pacific and the n american plates sliding past each other... I think north america is going north, pacific south (but it may be the other way around) ... Then you have this smaller plate up here. The juan de fuca, which is sliding under the n american plate. So okay, the rock from one plate goes under the other, gets hot, and rises to the surface, which forms...
Volcanoes.
Its kind of neat to think about. But these subduction faults lead to larger earthquakes that are less frequent. So you might be talking about a VERY large quake (think Japan, 2011) although it would probably have an epicenter somewhere out off the coast, not on land per se.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)thanks for the info. makes sense.
Egalitarian Thug
(12,448 posts)Earth quakes, the Yellowstone caldera, volcanoes, tsunamis, gigantic tidal waves, Japanese radiation, mutant zombie bears, or just masses of weird naked people on a rampage, Portland is doomed!
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I was just trying to have a nice quiet dinner out with my wife and YIKES
or should I say bikes.
Egalitarian Thug
(12,448 posts)EVERYWHERE!
niyad
(112,424 posts)beautiful state (well, if you can ignore the reichwingnutjobs) but, there are a lot of good progressives here who would welcome you with open arms.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)wtf??? lol
i will take an earthquake and blizzard over a tornado. i can so do without an avalanche. something i do not want to experience.
co spr is still top on the list for different reasons.
niyad
(112,424 posts)right down manitou avenue a few years ago--have had them here and out to the eastern plains. but definitely not tornado alley!
a number of DU'ers are here in the springs, would love to have more.
SoCalDem
(103,856 posts)My husband retires in April & we are outtahere..
We have it narrowed down to :
Coos Bay
Bend
Cottage Grove
Albany
and about a zillion other places
Nothing north of Salem
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)i will sometime. if not this year, then i am clear in three. i am looking at eugene and salem. i spent some days in eugene this summer and really like the feel. but salem, i get much more in my house for the money than eugene.
i am going to have to check out cottage grove and albany. i hear good things about coos bay.
i am open and flexible.
thrilled for you.
treestar
(82,383 posts)The Big One due in LA has been due for like 50 years.
1-Old-Man
(2,667 posts)If memory serves correctly there were some people or a person on either China or Japan who found themselves in deep doo-doo for their failure to make a public warning when the signs of an impending quake were at hand. Sorry to be so vague about it but its just form memory.
starroute
(12,977 posts)9/20/2011
Six Italian scientists and one government official were set to go to trial in Italy on Tuesday on charges of manslaughter for not warning the public aggressively enough of an impending earthquake that killed more than 300 people in 2009.
While such a trial is unlikely on U.S. soil, experts say, American geologists and seismologists are watching closely, surprised at a legal system that would attempt to criminalize something as uncertain as earthquake prediction.
"Our ability to predict earthquake hazards is, frankly, lousy," said Seth Stein, a professor of Earth sciences at Northwestern University in Illinois. "Criminalizing something would only make sense if we really knew how to do this and someone did it wrong."
Logical
(22,457 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)I predict Southern California will have a huge earthquake, with many large and unnerving aftershocks. I'm positive I'll be proven 100% correct.
See how easy that is?
Logical
(22,457 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)I'll get back to ya on that one.
Short-term prediction: Not tomorrow.
Mid-term prediction: Not next month.
Long-term prediction: Yes.
Logical
(22,457 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)It's a worry, but you just stay aware and stay prepared. That's the key.
Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)I've got water, some canned stuff, flashlights, candles, etc., but, man, if the subduction zone goes all bets are off.
classof56
(5,376 posts)Actually, I now live on the east side of the Cascades, and our town has an emergency plan in place to deal with all those refugees who flee over the mountains when the Big One hits. Gonna be mighty interesting! It has to do with the subduction zone a few miles off the Pacific Coast, and while I'm willing to deal with the aftermath of all that shakin' going on, so far I'm not too worried. Survived a few quakes when I lived west of the Cascades, in a town not too far from Mt. St. Helens, where the ash fell hot and heavy after she blew her top a few times. Had some involvement with Office of Emergency Management when they used to do "Trojan Drills" in preparation for a meltdown at the Trojan Nuclear Plant. That's shut down now, so I guess OEM needs something to do with their time. Why not dire warnings about Killer Earthquakes?
For all my fellow Oregonians in Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, Lincoln, Tillamook and Clatsop Counties over there on the coast, stay safe! And remember our state's motto--She Flies With Her Own Wings. Keep your parachutes handy!
Meanwhile, peace, blessings and congrats for living in the most beautiful and amazing state in the nation!
Igel
(35,191 posts)The last time the subduction zone slipped was in the late 1700s.
Massive quake in the NW.
And a humongous tsunami that hit Japan (and other nearby areas) a few hours later.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Millions of people worldwide will practice how to
Drop, Cover, and Hold On at 10:17 a.m. on October 17* during Great ShakeOut Earthquake Drills!
Oregonians can join them today by registering for the 2013 Great Oregon ShakeOut. Participating is a great way for your family or organization to be prepared to survive and recover quickly from big earthquakes wherever you live, work, or travel.
http://shakeout.org/oregon/
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
Igel
(35,191 posts)300-600 years, for the most part over the last couple thousand years.
It's been a bit over 300, so Oregon's up to bat. Perhaps this year. Perhaps in 200 years. Shorter's a bit more likely than longer.
adirondacker
(2,921 posts)mnhtnbb
(31,316 posts)according to experts.
http://www.dvidshub.net/news/105283/earthquake-specialist-shares-insight-about-californias-next-big-one#.Uj-nOz8QNG0
I was in college at UCLA when the 1971 quake hit. Scared the bejesus out of my roomie and me. That was only 6.6 magnitude.
I cannot imagine the damage a 7+ will do.
longship
(40,416 posts)Earthquakes are not like library books. They happen exactly when they happen and not one second sooner. To say that a region is due (or even more ignorantly, overdue) for an earthquake shows utter ignorance and naïveté. And it's utterly stupid to claim that an area is overdue for...
Dun! Dun! Dunnnnn!
THE BIG ONE
Dun! Dun! Dunnnnn!
(Gotta have dramatic chords for that one.)
Only people ignorant of math and statistics say things like that. (And copy editors who want to make a splash with a provocative article title.)
Stoooopid!
laundry_queen
(8,646 posts)there are some faults that let go with fairly consistent intervals. If a fault slips every 100 years or so with a 7.0 average strength, for several thousand years then after 150 years of nothing, a geologist may say that particular fault is overdue.
Some say the Cascadia subduction zone is overdue because on average the interval is 300-500 years. Well, it's been 300 years so it's not OVER due, but it could possibly be due. It's not stupid to say so. They had been talking about Japan overdue for a large tsunami for at least 10 years before the 2011 earthquake - they were right.
laundry_queen
(8,646 posts)I believe that would be 313 years.
But yeah, when Cascadia goes, it isn't going to be pretty for anyone along the west coast. I've heard the average interval (as per some documentary I saw about the intersection of faults around Vancouver Island) is 300-500 years, so it's not like it's super-overdue. I'd be more worried if it had been 513 years since the last one. Although, the article mentions partial quakes, so I suppose a slip on one part of the fault is what they mean, so if 240 years is average for those, then yeah, it's overdue. However 37% chance in 50 years isn't that big. But it IS going to happen. Eventually. And it's going to be a mess.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)Given it is not very accessible via transportation other than car, and even then given the prediction of the transportation system collapsing it would be nearly impossible to get there from overseas. I'm crossing my fingers it doesn't happen for another 20 years.
neverforget
(9,433 posts)it happens......at least on the same side of the river.....