Northern Caribbean and GOM folks - keep an eye on this one

[malaise]

Last edited Sun Sep 29, 2013, 12:44 PM - Edit history (1)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
-------------------
We're prepared for serious rain and flooding - keep an eye.

[Warpy]

1. You're right

Once the cold front to the north passes, this one could get pretty nasty.

I always tend to dismiss these things as "wet Willies," but I know how miserable all that rain and local flooding can be even when a storm lacks heavy winds and tidal surges.

Or maybe the memory of our heavy rains out here three weeks ago is still fresh.

[dixiegrrrrl]

2. Of course the problem is that tropical storms move slowly

so dump tons of water in the same place for a long time.

We are in SW Ala. and having the first week of totally dry weather since winter.
Evening temps are in high 60's, hopefully the Gulf is cooling off also.

[malaise]

3. Now Invest 97L - pay attention folks

Early days but some models suggest Florida



A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND HAITI TODAY AND MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

NOAA

[malaise]

4. Jeff Masters agrees

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2536

Marginally favorable conditions for development are expected for the next five days, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast, with moderate levels of wind shear (10 - 20 knots), but an atmosphere that will grow drier as 97L approaches the Northwest Caribbean and Southeast Gulf of Mexico. None of the reliable computer forecast models develop 97L into a tropical depression over the next five days. These models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) predict a northwesterly track for 97L over the next three days, followed by a more northerly track over Western Cuba and just west of the Florida Keys late in the week. On this path, 97L will bring heavy rains of 2 - 4" to Jamaica and Southwest Haiti on Sunday and Monday, to the Cayman Islands and Central and Eastern Cuba on Monday and Tuesday, to Western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday, and to South Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 20%, and 5-day odds of 40%.