Larry Sabato predicts bigger Virginia turnout, comments on Dem GOTV.

[RandySF]

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato 2 Nov
I keep reading predictions of VA GOV turnout in 30s. No, I'll bet it exceeds 2009's 40%. Maybe closer to 2005's 45%.

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato 2 Nov
Off-off year turnout never much to brag about. But VA GOV'13 has 3 candidates & intensity--even if negative.

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato 2 Nov
Maybe most important, Ds have invested heavily in registration, GOTV, & early voting--much of it under the radar. Visible only Nov. 5.

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato 3h
Good source tells me so far 114,000 in VA have voted early. Final total may be few thou higher. That's 18-20% more than '09.

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato 3h
Partly, it's much better D campaign. But again, I believe turnout will be higher than some estimate. NOT in 30s & above 2009's 40%.

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato 2h
VA turnout likely to exceed 2 million. Passions running high + big GOTV/voter contact + 3 GOV candidates.

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato 2h
Both sides aggressively contacting voters but big improvement on D side: Ds claim 175,000 just on 11/2, 50% of ENTIRE 2009 total in 1 day.

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato 2h
I can't personally verify but D model of early votes/absentees shows clear McAuliffe edge among early & absentee votes.

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato

[FSogol]

1. GOTV, VA.

[IronLionZion]

2. Dems can win in a lot more places

with turnout and registration and making sure folks have proper IDs in the states that are requiring it, etc.

The GOP in VA is much weaker than they used to be, plus demographics have changed considerably in our favor.